Chinese Reformers Hopeful As Hardline Army Chief 'prepares to Resign'

Jiang Zemin, the conservative chief of the People's Liberation Army, may announce his resignation within weeks, raising hopes for democratic reform in China and an easing of tensions over Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Senior Chinese academics said Jiang - a former president seen as the main obstacle to political change - could step down as chairman of the central military commission at a meeting of communist leaders this month.

Speculation has reached fever pitch this summer that the most influential Chinese politician of the past 15 years is ready to cede his last position of authority to his successor as president, Hu Jintao.

For months foreign China watchers have talked of a growing power struggle in Beijing between Hu - the head of the government - and Jiang, the head of the military.

Citing two sources close to the leadership, the New York Times yesterday reported that Mr Jiang told a meeting of senior officials last week that he plans to relinquish his authority.

"It is quite possible that Jiang may retire," said Cao Siyuan, president of Beijing Siyuan Research Centre for Social Science.

Although public criticism of the leadership has long been curtailed, pro-reform academics in Beijing have become increasingly bold in targeting Mr Jiang and his Shanghai allies, who are blamed for blocking moves to ease restrictions on the media and debate on democratic reform.

As the fiercest advocate of the free market, the Jiang camp is also widely associated with rampant corruption, widening social inequality and economic overheating. Through his control of the military Mr Jiang is also held responsible for the mainland's hardline approach to Taiwan and Hong Kong, which runs contrary to Mr Hu's softer diplomatic policy of a "gentle rise" of China.

In recent weeks influential Communist party publications such as the People's Daily and the Study Times have focused on the ideas of "balanced development" and "people first politics" most closely associated with Mr Hu and his prime minister, Wen Jiabao.

Several senior academics say that Mr Jiang would be taking a risk if he held on to his post as military chief longer than the two years his predecessor, Deng Xiaoping, stayed in the job after relinquishing his other party posts.

"If Jiang steps down this month, it would be normal," said Huang Weiping, the director of the political research centre of Shenzhen University.

However, Li Anming, the deputy director of the research centre of the Communist Party School, said: "I don't expect a change of leadership positions at the coming plenum."