General's Election

The chances of Pakistan's former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, returning from exile abroad to take part in next month's elections look increasingly slim.

For several weeks Ms Bhutto, who lives in London and Dubai, has promised to return to Pakistan to challenge the military regime of General Pervez Musharraf.

But the military has worked hard to keep Ms Bhutto out of politics. Her nomination to contest her seat in Larkana, in the southern province of Sindh, was turned down last week. Her lawyers filed an appeal in the Sindh high court yesterday but her aides are not confident of success.

Ms Bhutto, who was twice prime minister and twice sacked on charges of misrule and corruption, is herself beginning to admit she will not return this time.

"The jury is still out on whether I can personally contest the elections," she said this week. "For the time being my return is deferred. However, the fight for a democratic Pakistan continues."

Under new laws introduced by Gen Musharraf she was prevented from contesting a seat because she has been convicted for failing to appear in court to answer charges of corruption. The general promised to arrest Ms Bhutto the moment she landed back in Pakistan.

Her great rival, Nawaz Sharif, the last prime minister who was overthrown in a coup by Gen Musharraf, did receive a nomination to contest a seat but decided to withdraw his papers in an apparent gesture of sympathy with Ms Bhutto.

Their two political parties are members of the broader Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy, which continues to campaign for seats in the October elections, which will be the first since the coup three years ago.

There have been dozens of street protests in the past week to condemn Gen Musharraf for his efforts to keep Ms Bhutto out of the polls. The general has also faced considerable criticism from lawyers, politicians, newspapers and human rights groups for introducing a series of constitutional amendments that essentially enforce his position as president.

Under the new amendments he has given himself the power to sack the new prime minister, cabinet and parliament.

It now looks unlikely that one party will dominate the elections and instead the general is likely to face a hung parliament from which he will have to engineer a coalition government and choose a supportive prime minister.

That may give the hardline Islamic parties, which traditionally have performed badly at elections, an opportunity to win more ground than usual. Although Gen Musharraf's own position as president is unlikely to be challenged, he could face a broad opposition from several parties in parliament.

The last few months since a referendum in June, which the general himself admitted had not been entirely fair, have done little to improve his credibility.

Although his constitutional amendments have met with only limited disapproval from the west, many political analysts in Pakistan say his image has been tainted and he may have stored up problems for himself in the years ahead.