Bullets and bombs remind Afghanistan that Kabul's fragile peace is an illusion

Nine months after the Taliban regime collapsed under the weight of US bombing, security across Afghanistan appears as fragile as ever.

Last night's assassination attempt on President Hamid Karzai and the devastating bomb blast in Kabul hours earlier reveal a country still struggling with the legacy of two decades of war.

The two attacks, the most serious challenge to Mr Karzai's regime since it was installed in December, came despite the presence of the 4,000-strong International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) and after intensive efforts to pacify the country's feuding warlords and hunt down the remains of al-Qaida and the Taliban.

Promises of peace in the new Afghanistan began to unravel in July when Haji Abdul Qadir, one of the new vice-presidents, was shot dead outside his Kabul office.

Most Afghans presumed the capital, with its contingent of 4,000 foreign troops, was the safest place in the country. The city had filled with foreign diplomats and aid workers and dozens of restaurants and guest houses had opened. But the apparent prosperity belied a continuing and elusive security threat.

Within days Mr Karzai had replaced his Afghan bodyguards with a team of 46 US special forces troops. Many senior Afghans criticised him for the move, fearing it made him look like a puppet of Washington. Yesterday, however, Mr Karzai appeared to have been proven wise. His US bodyguards opened fire on a gunman attacking the president's car.

In the past month there have been a number of small bomb attacks, mostly in Kabul. An earlier bomb exploded outside the UN guesthouse, where most UN diplomats stay. No one was injured in that attack.

With the limited scientific expertise available, it is not clear whether the bombings are the work of the Taliban or al-Qaida loyalists but both groups have been circulating leaflets threatening attacks, particularly against foreign troops. Another threat comes from a former prime minister, the Islamist mojahedin warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

Earlier this week Mr Hekmatyar, who has been hunted by US troops for months, sent a taped message to a Pakistani newspaper calling on Afghans to force out western troops and to replace Mr Karzai. "How can we expect his regime to restore peace and offer security to the people?" he asked. "The US is sowing the seeds of another civil war that could even divide Afghanistan."

He insisted his group, Hezb-i-Islami, was not linked with the Taliban or al-Qaida, a charge being made by the government and by the new Turkish Isaf commander, General Hilmi Akin Zorlu. Mr Hekmatyar has been in hiding since leaving his base in Tehran several months ago, where he lived while the Taliban were in power.

Mr Karzai's government has used the bomb attacks to argue that US troops need to remain heavily engaged in Afghanistan and in the hunt for Bin Laden's fighters.

"What is this evidence of? What does that show? It is evidence of the fact that the campaign against terror should continue," the Afghan foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah said earlier this week.

Isaf officers have been preparing for an increase in attacks as the anniversary of September 11 approaches but had said it was unclear if these bombings were part of a coordinated plan. On Tuesday Isaf troops and sniffer dogs searched the German embassy as a precaution against possible attacks.

Western governments have been largely reluctant to expand the role of Isaf to cover other cities. Instead they have preferred to try and build a national army despite the fact that Afghanistan is a nation of feuding ethnic groups. Less than 1,000 soldiers have so far completed their training.

Yesterday Paul Wolfowitz, the US deputy defence secretary, for the first time appeared to offer an alternative security formula when he raised the idea that Isaf's role could be expanded. "We are also considering the possibility that Isaf could play a role outside the capital if it could be enlarged," he told a meeting at the Brookings Institution thinktank in Wash- ington. But he made it clear the US would not take a lead role in expanding the force.