MLB: Alex Rodriguez & The $200 Million Question

I’m one of those folks who is hoping to get this playoff and World Series junk out of the way quickly and clear the decks for what promises to be the real entertainment of the fall and winter seasons for baseball fans – the Alex Rodriguez Sweepstakes.

Sure, the Seattle Mariners may lead Rodriguez down the path of virtue and loyalty by sprinkling $200 million along the way, but if A-Rod opts for the road more generally taken we may witness one of the more intense feeding frenzies this side of the Amazon. The usual suspects in Los Angeles and New York have already indicated their interest, and probably a couple more emboldened teams will come out of the woodwork as well while the rest of the baseball world shakes its heads from the sidelines at the largesse.

All of which brings up a point: even in baseball’s hyper-inflationary salary environment can anyone, even someone with as bright and nearly guaranteed a future as Alex Rodriguez, be worth $20 million a year? How could the New York Yankees, who already have a perfectly serviceable shortstop in Derek Jeter, justify paying all that moolah to a guy they can’t even use optimally (or who will force them to move Jeter to a less optimal position)? Why would the Los Angeles Dodgers, who already have Gary Sheffield, Eric Karros, Shawn Green, Todd Hundley, and Adrian Beltre but no real leadoff hitter to speak of, want to shoot their wad on yet another middle of the order guy?

Well, let’s consider two points of view on the subject – what we’ll call for ease of identification the George Steinbrenner approach and the Syd Thrift approach – and apply them to one of the potential surprise participants in the A-Rod Derby, the Anaheim Angels.

(As a side note, Syd Thrift to me represents baseball’s bow to truth in advertising. In a game beset with Cecil Fielders who have the defensive range of a lamppost, Jack Armstrongs who ruin their careers by throwing too much on the side, and African-American Bill Whites, Thrift stands alone as a man whose name means what it says)

STEINBRENNER: The Angels need a shortstop the way a baby needs milk. Alex Rodriguez is not only a first-rate shortstop, but also the best young talent in baseball today. Thus, the Angels should spend whatever it takes to get A-Rod on their roster.

There isn’t anything that Rodriguez can’t do. He’s one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, which is the same as saying he’s one of the best defensive players in the game. He hits for average, has tremendous power, and is now taking 100 + walks a season. He’s a terrific basestealer and a heady player.

What’s more, his best years are still ahead of him.

Sure, a ten year commitment to anyone is a risk, but the odds are that Rodriguez is still going to be in the elite ranks at the end of it – and at the rate that baseball’s salary structure is going to hell in a hand basket, $20 million probably won’t buy you a utility infielder by 2011.

Making a deal for Rodriguez today is in the same category as signing Babe Ruth in 1919. Don’t believe me? Well, think this over – everybody talks about the fact that Ruth had set the single season home run record (with 29) the year before he was traded, but do you know which team lead the major leagues in big flies that year? The New York Yankees – the team Ruth was traded to. The Yankees had arguably the best infield and pitching staff in the league, finished only 7 ½ games behind a White Sox team that was on the verge of collapse after fixing the World Series, had plenty of power by contemporary standards… and still shelled out the potatoes for Ruth.

Why? Because he was Babe Ruth: a 25-year-old phenomena who just happened to be the best player in the game as well. He might not have been exactly what they needed at the moment, but given his age and prodigious talents there was going to be plenty of time to adapt the team to him.

There are always role players out there that can be acquired if need be. An Alex Rodriguez comes along only once in a generation – and you’re a fool if you pass up such an opportunity.

THRIFT: Yes, Alex Rodriguez is an outstanding player, but he simply doesn’t address the Angels’ needs well enough to justify spending $20 million per on him.

The Halos definitely need a shortstop who can snare the odd grounder hit more than two steps to either side of him, but they are already drowning in middle of the order guys: Tim Salmon, Mo Vaughn, Troy Glaus, Garret Anderson, Darin Erstad. What they need is a tablesetter, someone who can get on in front of the boppers.

The Angels are ninth in the American League in runs scored, but it’s not for a lack of power: they are third in both homers and slugging percentage. Where their problem lies is in the fact that the only guys who will take a walk in their lineup are Salmon, Vaughn, and Glaus – the middle of the order people. As a result, they are forced to waste Erstad’s run production abilities in the one hole because he’s the only guy they’ve got who remotely meets the qualifications – and unless Erstad intends to hit .356 the rest of his life he won’t remain a good leadoff hitter for long. That’s right – guys who walk 58 times in 700 plate appearances pretty much have to crank out 230 + hits a season to rank among the best of the best at the job.

Of course, A-Rod would make a terrific leadoff hitter himself – but what you are paying for is A-Rod’s ability to reach base and his glove AND HIS POWER. Think of Rodriguez as giving you, say, $5 million worth of defense a season, $7 million worth of ability to reach base, and $8 million worth of oomph. If you can’t use his power effectively (either by having him at the top of the order or having to move someone like Troy Glaus there) you’re throwing away $8 million a year. Period.

So the Angels need a middle infielder that gets on base a lot? That description fits Delino DeShields to a T, along with Jose Offerman, Luis Alicea, Jeff Frye, and probably a half dozen other guys who could be sweet-talked into signing up with The Great Mouseketeer for no more than A-Rod would charge for a couple of homestands.

Taking it a step further, suppose that you signed someone like DeShields and then used the $15 million or so left over to get something the Halos really need – like, say, a #1 starter. For $15 million a year, I can assure you that Mike Hampton’s and Mike Mussina’s supposed preferences would melt away very rapidly. Wouldn’t that be a bit more useful than Rodriguez? Suppose that you bought Mussina's loyalty for something less than $15 million a year, used DeShields as a DH (the Angels need one of those too) and used the leftover bucks to squeeze in a deal for a young shortstop like John McDonald or Kelly Dransfeldt who is blocked from the Show with his current team. Now which would you prefer?

Alex Rodriguez is a great player, and he may be worth $20 million to a team that can use him effectively. The Angels just don’t happen to be that team.

So there you have both sides of the argument. Note carefully when variants of each are used in the casual quotes you’ll inevitably here as the Hot Stove League heats up, but don't feel obliged to pay too close attention: if you happen to miss one such proclamation, rest assured that another will follow in short order.

Let the frenzy begin…