Environment issues swing the vote

Bill Clinton was famously reminded by a supporter not to wander off the key issue in his campaign with the words: "It's the economy, stupid".

Last night's early projections suggested that, in Germany's general election, "it was the environment, stupid".

There were many issues, but the remarkable showing of the Greens indicated that the environment had been a central concern. And if, as the pollsters were predicting, a new centre-left government emerged from the confusion, then the Greens were likely to have a level of influence and authority at Gerhard Schröder's cabinet table that they have never enjoyed before.

The early reckonings saw them winning 8.5%, compared with 6.7% four years ago. That would give them 54 seats - an increase of seven. Party leader Joschka Fischer told supporters: "We said we wanted 8 [percent] plus 'x'. Now it looks as if the 'x' will be an 'XXL.'"

His spiky-haired cabinet colleague, Renate Künast, who runs a "super-ministry" for food, farming and consumer protection, said pointedly: "We fought a joint and unique red-green election campaign."

Indeed, the Greens' contribution was immense. Mr Fischer, the foreign minister, put his all into winning votes on an exhausting, countrywide bus tour.

The Greens accounted for some of the most important achievements in the track record Mr Schröder was able to take to the hustings. Their first four years in government delivered a tax on fossil fuels, an agreement to phase out nuclear energy, a huge increase in wind power, a fall in carbon dioxide emissions, a push for organic farming, and the legalisation of gay marriages.

But, above all, the Greens made a decisive contribution in the two issues that seem to have turned the result the centre-left's way. One was the chancellor's pledge to have no part in a US-led attack on Iraq - which winkled out many left-leaning voters who might otherwise have abstained. That undertaking would have looked a great deal less credible had it not come from a leader who had spent four years in coalition with a party still nominally committed to pacifism.

The second key factor was last month's extensive flooding in southern and eastern Germany. Here, the chancellor moved faster than his rival, Edmund Stoiber, showing leadership by touring the affected areas and swiftly arranging aid and compensation. It also concentrated voters' minds on the environment in general, and global warming in particular. The media was soon asking for Mr Stoiber's views on the subject and noting that he did not even have an environment spokesperson.

As the conservative challenger struggled to establish his green credentials, the chancellor had no need to do so and the Greens rose in the polls.