Formula One: Where Do Ferrari Go After Schumacher?

Tomorrow's Italian grand prix, the home race of Ferrari, may prove an unhappy landmark in the generally stratospheric career of Michael Schumacher. Should results go against him, the winner of the last five world championships will no longer have any chance of winning this one, his title relinquished to either Renault's Fernando Alonso or Kimi Raikkonen of McLaren.

Yesterday Schumacher's luck appeared to have deserted him again when, struggling for grip on Bridgestone tyres that were clearly too hard for the track conditions, the German lost control of his Ferrari F2005 on the 150mph Parabolica right-hander, his scarlet machine snapping lazily into a spin which propelled it backwards across the run-off area before its progress was smartly arrested by the protective tyre barrier.

"When you are not as competitive as you want to be, you try everything you can to improve and my spin was partly the result of that," said Schumacher.

The sight of Schumacher struggling at Monza of all places only added to the widespread sense of a man approaching the final stages of his career, and there is good reason to believe Ferrari are working hard behind the scenes to ensure a smooth succession to the throne when Schumacher finally hangs up his helmet.

Most insiders now believe this seismic moment for the sport will happen at the end of next season and it is now clear that Raikkonen is at the top of Ferrari's list of replacements in 2007, with six-times MotoGP champion Valentino Rossi possibly earmarked as the Finn's No2.

Although contracted to remain with the McLaren-Mercedes squad until the end of next season, Raikkonen's manager David Robertson has already spoken to Ferrari's president Jean Todt about a possible deal. To accommodate that possibility it is being speculated that Felipe Massa, the successor to Rubens Barrichello in the Ferrari squad, has been signed just for a single season. Asked to comment on this hypothesis a senior McLaren source said; "You just might be right on that. It might all depend on just how ambitious Kimi's management is on the financial front."

"I would not have a problem to drive with Kimi at Ferrari in 2007," Schumacher admitted this week, "but whether I continue in formula one after 2006 I don't know. I don't have an idea when it is time for me to stop but I don't believe I have many years ahead of me."

Replacing a driver of Schumacher's calibre represents a momentous challenge. It is not simply his unmatched record of 84 grand prix victories which sets him apart but the unique relationship he has crafted with the Ferrari management. Any incoming replacement will not only struggle to match his statistical achievements, but will be hard pressed to create the magical chemistry which has made Schumacher's tenure with the Italian team such a uniquely memorable chapter in the sport's history.

Yet Ferrari must be pragmatic about this. Todt has to be in a position to ensure the best possible driver is available should Schumacher retire and at the moment Raikkonen is exactly that. The one obstacle might yet be McLaren's battle to keep their prize asset.

"We have traditionally enjoyed a long-term relationship with drivers and we expect to go forward and win many more races with Kimi," said Martin Whitmarsh, McLaren's chief executive officer. Yet the relationship between McLaren and the Finnish driver has not always run smoothly with the management exasperated by Raikkonen's off-track partying and the Finn frustrated that the mechanical unreliability of his McLaren-Mercedes MP4-20 has cost him four more grand prix victories this season than the five he has so far scored.

The possibility of the Italian darling Rossi joining would be another coup for Ferrari. He only signed a one-year contract with Yamaha for 2006 and, with Ferrari's technical director Ross Brawn already confirming Rossi will be testing for the team next year, the switch looks on for 2007. Rossi has already enjoyed three tentative tests in a formula one Ferrari at the company's Fiorano track, recounting in his recently published autobiography how Ferrari beat both BAR-Honda and Toyota in the race to get him into the cockpit of a racing car for the first time.

However, a senior manager in a rival team cast doubt on whether Ferrari would ever be bold enough to try Rossi as one of their race drivers. "It's all very well but formula one is so frantically competitive that I doubt any team would really take the risk," he said. "It's simply too speculative."