Bush Approval Rating Slowly Rising

In an article in the Wall Street Journal, numerous poll results are cited that indicate that President Bush has made some progress in getting Americans back on board with his policies and his vision for Iraq and the War on Terror. The gains come at a critical juncture for the Republican Party as mid-term elections are rapidly approaching. The consensus of most political analysts is that the Republicans are going to lose seats in both the House and the Senate and could potentially lose control of one or both.

The most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll showed the president’s overall approval rating at 42%, which is a slight improvement from the 38% approval rating he scored in June. 54% of voters still believe that the president is leading the U.S. in the wrong direction. The major contributing factors for his slide in approval ratings over the past two years have been the lack of discernable progress in Iraq, the government’s response to Hurricane Katrina, and the sharp rise in gas prices. While the Republicans have enjoyed a majority in the House since 1994 and the Senate since 2002, the winds of change are blowing.

"In meteorological terms, it's going to be a hurricane -- what has yet to be determined is whether it's Category 1 or Category 3 or Category 5," says Peter Hart, the Democratic pollster who conducts the Journal/NBC survey along with a Republican pollster, Bill McInturff. "If [Mr. Bush] has the ability to dominate the dialogue, he can push this election toward the Republicans even as he remains unpopular with the voters."

Bush’s recent gains in approval, however, may not be enough to reverse the disapproval trend that has plagued his administration and the GOP since 2004. While the Democrats need only six seats to regain control of the Senate and 15 seats to take over the House, there is still doubt about whether the Dems have gained enough momentum to carry them through a recent upswing of major economic factors. Although gas prices are still relatively high, they have moved back from their recent peaks and crude-oil prices have fallen from a high of $77 a barrel in early August to under $64 as of the Journal’s report. After struggling for most of the summer, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rebounded to just below its historical high. And all of this while the economy has continued to grow and unemployment has been held in check.

As the midterm elections approach, Republicans and Democrats are scrambling for firm political footing. Republicans are painting a picture of stability and measured progress in the midst of difficult circumstances. Democrats are pointing to glaring weaknesses and failures of the Bush administration and the Republican-controlled Congress as reasons for immediate changes in leadership.

"There's a reason that Republicans and the president are trying to make this a choice for stability [in Iraq] versus 'cut-and-run,'" Mr. McInturff told the Journal. "If you're a Republican candidate, you'd better make this election on a narrow range of issues."