Perilous predictions

By Jeff Moore Sports Central Columnist

Another NFL season brings the inevitable predictions from fans and "experts" alike. Making predictions gives us all a chance to show off our knowledge of the game and impress everyone with our accuracy. In fact, try it now. Take out a piece of paper and a pen. Write down the names of the two teams you believe will be playing for the Super Bowl and the winner of the game. Take your time. Once you have finished, take that paper and burn it.

The time you spent coming up with the two teams you think will be playing for the NFL's grand prize might as well have been used watching Slamball. If the last few seasons in the NFL have proven anything, it is that the competition is so close that it is difficult to use the previous season as a basis for predicting the next. Throw in realignment this year and predictions are now a sucker's bet.

Even before this season and realignment, picking the division winners alone was becoming difficult for even Miss Cleo. Last season, five of the six division winners were new. What are the odds of that? Well, apparently the same as the previous three seasons as last year marked the fourth in a row that five of the six division winners were different than the year before.

Many predictions will simply be a rematch of the previous Super Bowl or the defending champion or finalist being the popular choice to win it all. How accurate will these forecasts be?

As far as rematches go, there has been exactly one with the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills in a deja-vu with Super Bowls XXVII and XXVIII. Over the last 36 Super Bowls, the defending champion has repeated only seven times. In fact, the defending champion has only returned to the Super Bowl in the next season just 10 times including the seven successful title defenses. The odds of the New England Patriots repeating based on past history don't look good, but talk of back-to-back Super Bowls outside the Boston area seems to be very rare.

However, those who have the St. Louis Rams on their Super Bowl list seem pretty confident. Should they be?

Super Bowl history shows that the team losing the big game has returned to the final only seven times. Just two teams -- Dallas, who lost Super Bowl V but won Super Bowl VI, and the Miami Dolphins, who lost Super Bowl VI to the Cowboys, but roared back in Super Bowl VII, capping the only undefeated season in NFL history, turned their fortunes around. With these kinds of odds, what is the appeal of picking the two teams that played the last game of the season?

The Rams came from nowhere in 1999 to win the big game. We all know the story of Kurt Warner the stock boy turned MVP and images of his wife sitting in the stands with the teased blonde hair and leopard blouse is burned in the minds of many football fans whether they want it there or not. But how many people picked the Rams in 1999?

The popular pick in 1999 would most likely have been defending back-to-back champions Denver Broncos had John Elway not retired. Yet, as the Comeback Quarterback watched from home, with Terrell Davis in his prime and the Denver defense lead by the driven Bill Romanowski, you can bet the Broncos were the champion of choice for many fans.

The Atlanta Falcons, who lost to Denver to give the Broncos their repeat championship, were most likely a popular selection also. Remember the "Dirty Bird" and Chris Chandler playing like a star instead of a journeyman? Both teams only got to the Super Bowl the next season if they bought tickets.

Once the Rams took the championship, the next season it was difficult to find a football magazine that did not have Kurt Warner on the front cover and the Rams picked to win it all again. The Tennessee Titans lost to the Rams in 1999 thanks to a Mike Jones tackle at the two-yard line as time expired. The Titans were also the team of choice in several football publications for at least a rare rematch.

What happened to these two favorite picks? The Rams and Titans both lost their first playoff game and the Baltimore Ravens, with one of the greatest defensive units in NFL history, became the 2000 Super Bowl champions by defeating the New York Giants.

The next season, the Ravens returned with the same defense and Elvis Grbac at quarterback. With the perceived big improvement over Trent Dilfer and Ray Lewis still commanding the defense, you better believe many had the Ravens picked to repeat. The Giants carried the hopes of the New York fans and media and were often chosen as a potential Super Bowl XXXVI Champion.

Once again, the two teams that played in the previous Super Bowl did not return to the January Classic. Elvis and the Ravens left the building courtesy of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second round of the playoffs. Giants coach Jim Fassel knew better than to give any more guarantees as his New York team was not even able to put together a winning season. The New England Patriots, almost filling a destiny in a year that American Patriotism was severely tested, became one of the most unlikely Super Bowl champions.

If NFL history has proven anything, it is that previous Super Bowl teams are not teams to pick. Although it appears that not many need convincing to look for some other team than the Patriots in the AFC, many require more of a case to believe that the Rams are not the eventual champs and everyone else is only playing for a trip to San Diego.

The Rams have some of the best offensive players in the game right now. The defense turned around and was one of the best units in the league. Where are the problems?

NFL competition is tough. The roster may contain marquee names and the stats may be very impressive. However, not one NFL game has been played on paper. The games are played on the field and as you may have heard, "On any given Sunday, any given team may beat any other team."

The difference between winner and loser is small in the National Football League, very small. Last season, the winning margin in 48% of all NFL games was a touchdown or less. In the case of the Rams, five of their 14 regular season wins, and the NFC Championship Game, were by seven or fewer points. The same argument could be used with the Ram's three losses (all by seven points or less), but the point is only that wins are difficult to come by in the NFL and it is never a good idea to chalk up a "W" too soon.

With such a slim margin of victory, the little things can make a difference. The Rams have lost little things. They have lost London Fletcher, their leading tackler last year. They also lost Az-Zahir Hakim, one of the best return men and third receivers in the game.

Ask any football coach what their team needs to do to win the game. The answer is always, "avoid turnovers." The Rams don't avoid turnovers. They mass produce them. Last season, the Rams led the NFL in turnovers with 44. Although the Rams won an astounding 71.4% of their games when in a turnover disadvantage, how long can they continue to over come the odds? The rest of the league only won 26.8% of their games when in a turnover disadvantage. Sooner or later, giving the football away will get you. Watch the Super Bowl again.

With the Rams clearly not my choice for the Super Bowl, let me give my forecast of the NFL season. If I type quickly, I just might be finished in time to catch that Slamball game.

AFC East

1. Miami: Great defense and a Ricky Williams running game will bring defenses up and give Jay Fiedler room to make plays.

2. New England: Still a playoff team, but even Cinderella had to come back to reality after having a great time at the ball.

3. New York: Not many passing yards left for Vinny Testaverde and a tough division to win lots of games.

4. Buffalo: The wagons are circled, but they still need some big men on the D-line.

AFC West

1. Oakland: This team has a lot going for it. Lots of birthdays. The Raiders defy time and get another division title.

2. Denver: Who is going to run the ball? Can Brian Griese live up to expectations?

3. Kansas City: Priest Holmes is the real deal. Trent Green is the great fake.

4. San Diego: Drew Brees era should last longer than Ryan Leaf's.

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh: The next step in Kordell Stewart's career is to show up for the big games.

2. Cleveland: Tim Couch, William Green, and Kevin Johnson will hear cheers from the Dawg Pound.

3. Baltimore: After losing 13 starters, nobody is ravin' about the 2000 champions.

4. Cincinnati: The Bengals have been in the basement so long they should pay rent.

AFC South

1. Tennessee: Eddie George is back. Coach Jeff Fisher needs to let Steve McNair keep airing it out.

2. Indianapolis: Peyton's Place will get some defense.

3. Jacksonville: At least the weather is nice. Oh yeah, Fred Taylor gets injured.

4. Houston: Expansion pains begin, but not for long.

AFC Championship: Pittsburgh over Oakland

NFC East

1. Philadelphia: The next step in Donovan McNabb's career is to show up for the big games.

2. Washington: Steve Spurrier will only be as good as his quarterback(s).

3. New York: Lots of good players, not many great ones.

4. Dallas: Emmitt Smith gets the record. Does anything else matter this year?

NFC West

1. St. Louis: Still the class of the league, but not as dominating.

2. San Francisco: Still need a pass rush and secondary to get past the Rams.

3. Seattle: A tough division to get lots of wins.

4. Arizona: They should be roommates with Cincinnati.

NFC North

1. Green Bay: Brett Favre will make whoever catches the ball in Wisconsin a star.

2. Chicago: A surprising season like the Patriots last year, they just didn't go as far. The same letdown as the Patriots this year, only not as far.

3. Minnesota: After Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss, name two more players.

4. Detroit: Quarterback issues, running back issues. They could make a run at a winless season again.

NFC South

1. Tampa Bay: Defense is there. Jon Gruden will force the offense to catch up.

2. New Orleans: Aaron Brooks is good. Deuce McAllister will be good.

3. Atlanta: The next step in Michael Vick's career is to play every day and learn.

4. Carolina: Quarterback issues, running back issues. They could threaten the Lions' chances to be the only winless team. When they play each other, look for a scoreless tie.

NFC Championship: Philadelphia over St. Louis

Super Bowl XXXVII: Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

Article courtesy of Sports Central.