Turkey: the Great Flee Ahead for Erdogan

Turkey: the Great Flee Ahead for Erdogan

By Prof. Dr. Muhammad Shamsaddin Megalommatis

Within difference less 24 hours between them, two apparently conflicting messages arrived to the office of Turkey’s Prime Minister T. R. Erdogan, one from Europe and another from Ankara. The French President, having faced a severe blow in the recent EU Constitution, said – referring to the Cyprus problem – that Turkey failed to act "in the spirit" of a country hoping to join the EU. This is the last Ovidian metamorphosis of the French political dinosaur, whose ‘best’ friend and colleague, the notorious former Prime Minister Alain Juppe, proved to be a fraudulent trustee, and whose recently established (2002) party (UMP) elected as head Chirac’s most vociferous opponent, the anti-Turkish N. Sarkozy. The next message was sent by the Turkish Chief of the General Staff, Hilmi Ozkok, who stipulated the need for Turkey to adhere to the EU, saying "our current EU goal is a process of that vision in deed. We perceive EU membership as a prominent tool for the goal of reaching the level of modern civilizations pointed by the Great Leader Ataturk". The Turkish Prime Minister seems to be in an impossible position, pressed by the Turkish Chief of the General Staff to advance to a place where to enter he is demanded to proceed in a way that would be unacceptable for both the Turkish Prime Minister and the Chief of the General Staff. What to do?

Chirac’s hypocritical shift of position was anticipated.

The impossibility of the Turkish Prime Minister position was predicted to some extent. The apparent rise of Angela Merkel in Germany chancellorship and her repeated suggestions for a privileged partnership with Turkey (of which a simulacrum she may intend to present to Russia and Ukraine) would match perfectly well the French politicians anti-Turkish hysteria, as expressed by V. Giscard d’ Estaing in terms of unprecedented falsification of History. We dedicated two articles to refute Giscard’s inconsistencies and inaccuracies (‘Irrelevant Giscard: the Anti-Turkish Euro-Myopic’: http://www.buzzle.com/editorials/11-26-2004-62195.asp and ‘The Anti-Turkish Crusade of Valery Giscard d’ Estaing http://www.buzzle.com/editorials/12-5-2004-62548.asp).

However, more and more politicians in France, S. Veil, N. Sarkozy, and others found the subject quite popular because of the rising Turkophobia and the already running high Islamophobia of the average ignorant French masses who fail to understand that Turkey has nothing in common with the misery, the poverty, the lack of culture and education, the lowly social behavioral system, let alone the Islamic conservatism and extremism, of countries like Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco, all former French colonies that represent best what the average French thinks of a Muslim country.

If French mass media establishments performed correctly their role, then the average French public would have gone through lengthy analyses proving that in various issues Turkey is socially and culturally more advanced than France. But the French press failed to dissociate themselves from the politicians and their electoral clientele. This is not so strange in an almost state run economy where the top public administrators and private sector managers have to be graduated from the elitist Ecole Nationale d’ Administration! More recently, the new French Prime Minister heralded Chirac’s message of yesterday by saying that it was "inconceivable" for Turkey to start membership negotiations without recognizing an EU member state, namely Greek Cyprus.

The problem with recognizing Greek Cyprus is obviously an issue of International Law, and results from the yet unsolved dispute over Cyprus. With Greek Cyprus provocatively boycotting all the efforts deployed by UN Secretary General to solve the issue through negotiations, it was proved that the basic mistake was Europe’s: you cannot accept as member state a country that is in dispute with another candidate. The present position of the French President and Prime Minister is unethical, illegitimate, duplicitous and absolutely deceitful for the European interests. Even the Greek government has serious difficulties to express support for such irrelevance!

More precisely, Turkey signed the supplementary protocol in July, expanding the scope of the Customs Union Agreement to include the 10 new members of the European Union (EU), one of which is Greek Cyprus. Signing the agreement had been set as a condition for Turkey to start the EU membership negotiations. Following the signature, Turkey announced with a declaration that the act of signing the supplementary protocol would not mean recognition of Greek Cyprus. The reason is simple: Cyprus is an international problem and it must be solved through negotiations. An explicit recognition of Greek Cyprus by Turkey would change the overall situation to the prejudice of Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, a state formed in the part of Cyprus that is not controlled by Greek Cyprus.

At the same time, the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader and chancellor candidate in next September’s German parliamentary elections, Dr. Angela Merkel, who severely opposes Turkey’s EU membership, sent a letter to a group of EU leaders, asking them to present Turkey the "privileged partnership" alternative along with the full membership target.

Support from the British and the Italian prime ministers would be expected, but it has to be already understood that with the opposition of several countries (France and Germany are not the only), the chances of Turkey to start negotiations – without prior recognition of Greek Cyprus – are poor, truly poor.

What to do?

Turkey must realize what all know: Europe is in chaos!

The starting point for the Turkish government in the next few days would be to think seriously about Europe. There has been a path towards the Common Market (as the EU was then called), the European Community (another name involved meanwhile!) was the target of Turkey’s secular political, military, economic, intellectual and academic establishment (and of the majority of the people too), and there is an objective understanding (from economics and politics to cultural evaluations) that Turkey is European, and worthy as full, plenipotentiary member of the European Union.

To give an example, Turkey’s per capita GDP is higher than that of Romania and Bulgaria, two countries that aspire membership within two years, and Turkey is more developed than these two countries in every sense, involving industrialization, technical infrastructure, market economy dynamism, education, and adaptation to the globalization era. In addition, parliamentary democracy in Turkey functions at least as well as in the aforementioned Balkan countries, Human Rights are respected as much as in the other two EU candidates, and Istanbul, Izmir, Antalya, Ankara, and Bursa streets reveal an atmosphere more European than the streets of Bucharest and Sofia.

But, and this is what the Turkish statesmen and politicians, military and diplomats must seriously think of, is 2005 European Union the same as 1961 Common Market? Are 2005 EU horizons as promising and as buoyant as were those of 1961 Common Market? General Hilmi Ozkok may be right saying that ‘EU membership as a prominent tool for the goal of reaching the level of modern civilizations’, but is it the ‘only tool’ or the ‘only prominent tool’?

If we go through a fast survey of the globe, we immediately realize that EU membership is not "a prominent tool for the goal of reaching the level of modern civilizations" for Norway or Switzerland, two leading European small countries. The same is true for non-European countries like Canada, South Africa, Australia, Malaysia, South Korea. It is even more so for Israel.

The goal General Hilmi Ozkok referred to, namely ‘reaching the level of modern civilizations’ is the important issue; every Turkish government should be fixed to this goal that made of Modern Turkey a civilized and educated, Westernized and civilized realm, deeply different from the misery of Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Algeria, Libya and Yemen that were all Turkish provinces in the past but failed to follow Ataturk’s example.

And what if Europe cannot help? With the two ‘No’ in the recent French and Dutch referenda, we have good reasons to think that Europe is in a deadlock.
Tony Blair will be trying to pull the reluctant continental leaderships to a more open stand towards the rest of the world, insisting of further liberalization, more limited role for the state, and consistent involvement against the Islamic Terror. England and several other countries of the ‘Old’ or the ‘New’ Europe may function as an alarming warning for the terrible economic challenges coming from India and China. But the rest may fail to ever wake up! Dr. A. Merkel offered little support to T. Blair in his bras-de-fer with J. Chirac last June. She opposes the pro-Turkish position of England and Italy. During her electoral campaign she does not show a definite commitment to major changes that are dramatically needed for Europe’s immobilized economic locomotive. The German worker will probably remain the world’s most expensive one, the German taxation system will be the most ineffective through the planet, and the Germans will not take as much profit as the Americans do from Outsourcing. Soon, they will have more difficulties to sustain their industry, because they will not be competitive enough in front of the fast expanding Asiatic monsters.

France has become Europe’s Sick Man; plunged into eternal disputes between ‘souverainistes’ and pro-Europeans that affect the entire spectrum of French politics, and accustomed to devour European subsidies for their agricultural production, the French have difficult to adapt themselves within an always more liberalized and always more globalized economic environment. After the fall of the Soviet Union, France is the country with the largest public sector allover the world. It seems difficult for the French to admit that Richelieu died!

With Italy plunged into the worst scandals of the last decades, and its political life totally corrupt, with the Eastern European countries trying to push for challenging alternatives in Brussels, from economics to foreign policy, with Germany irresponsibly promoting Pacifism through its foreign policy (recent Schroeder’s declarations about Iran) and giving the impression that as country it is just a huge Switzerland, with England’s voters being more distant from Europe than ever, with many European economies kept outside Euro-zone, and with top Italian statesmen suggesting the return to local Lira, one has to seriously examine how long it will take the 25 member states EU to solve all the discrepancies, differences, divides, and conflicting interests. Many know already that this will never happen.

Two things can be expected at the best:

Either some European countries, stuck in protectionist concepts, will form a second ‘Union of ‘European’ Governments’, a new state formed around Germany, Austria, Belgium, France, eventually Italy and few more countries that will all make one government, one administration, one currency, one police, one army and one socio-economic system (and that state will co-exist within the 25 member states loose and quasi-defunct EU)

Or the present situation will prevail, with the EU being a loose organization of perhaps 27 or 30 states (with Turkey, Ukraine and Russia excluded) some of which may cooperate more in this sector, whereas some other states will cooperate more in another sector. France and England may merge their nuclear forces, but England will stick to the British Pound, whereas France and Germany will keep Euro.

In both cases, Turkey cannot expect the totality of member states to accept its candidacy. The only countries that can be accepted after Rumania and Bulgaria are the poor and tiny Balkan countries that do not constitute a serious administrative and economic problem. Poland may be a mentor for Belarus, but this would be the very last concession of the net contributors who, due to global economy’s problems, have the inclination to opt for the ominously heralded ‘Fortress Europe’.

An open country like Turkey turned towards the Balkans, the Black Sea, the Middle East, Russia, and the Central Asiatic circumference cannot fit the back thoughts of the ‘Fortress Europe’ euro-isolationists.

What to do?

Through another Wave of Ataturk-like Change, Erdogan can make Europe envy Turkey

It is the old Anatolian proverb: ‘when the Mountain does not go to the Prophet, the Prophet goes to the Mountain’!

‘Reaching the level of modern civilizations’, the main goal of Mustafa Kemal Pasa Ataturk, as correctly General Hilmi Ozkok highlighted, means first correct specification of this ‘level’. What happens at this level, what principles prevail there, how the world is viewed, assessed, perceived, and conceptualized by those being at this level, what are the freshest messages and ideas diffused there, what are the techniques chosen, the methods selected, the goals set. In all these issues, Turkey must act fast. From Humanities to Biotechnology, Nanotechnology and Space Sciences Turkey must become one of the world’s top competitors in scientific research. This would help at the background level and for the perspective of the entire century.

Then, within the next two years, Turkey should take the following major political steps:

1. Promulgation of the Kurdish and the Aramaic as Official Languages along with Turkish. Multiculturalism is reigning at ‘the level of modern civilizations’ and in our global world the concept of the state-nation has receded. Ataturk’s nationalism was an excellent introspection for the 20s and the 50s, but this is not the way anymore. By contributing to the emancipation of the Kurds and the Arameans (Suryani), Turkey will have the privilege to become the only regional state friendly predisposed to these two peoples, who will correspond to this positive attitude with recognition and obliteration of past grievances. Turkey, with universities offering all subjects in Kurdish and in Aramaic, will become the focal point of all the Kurds and the Aramaeans of Syria, Iraq and Iran. A major effort for the development of Eastern Turkey should be undertaken, and attractive measures and particular stimuli must be offered for populations to rather return in Eastern Turkey than stay in Western Turkey.

2. At an indifferent moment, the Turkish Prime Minister must fly to Greek Cyprus and solve the Gordian knot of Cyprus. A draft Constitution text for a totally demilitarized, neutral, con-federal Republic of Cyprus must be offered to both parts of the divided island.

3. Turkey must become the US no 1 ally in the pacification of Iraq and the war against Islamic Terror. The earlier promulgation of the Kurdish and the Aramaic as Official Languages in Turkey will help particularly in this regard, and it will be essential for Turkey to present itself as the best protector not only of the Turkmens of Iraq but also of the Christians and the non-Muslims of Mesopotamia. This will give Turkey excellent international credentials, especially if we take into consideration the European contempt and disregard for the Eastern Christians, which is an event that Turkey should be continuously highlighting. A specific strategy linking Iraq’s development to Turkish economic planning and development must be initiated.

4. Turkey, Israel, India, Japan and the US must form an economic cooperation under the form of an international organization the economic shaping of Asia over the next century. Joint ventures in Central Asia, Russia, and China will be the way to outmaneuver the Russian–Chinese axis under formation. The five countries should deal with any local protectionism jointly and political counter-measures should be immediate. The Caucasus and the Central Asiatic countries should be ascribed specific reform tasks in order to enter this organization at a later stage. The economic cooperation will lead to military cooperation at all levels, nuclear included.

5. The best way to cooperate for the imminent and imperative democratization of rogue states like Iran or dysfunctional artificial states like Syria and S. Arabia will be the establishment of Middle Eastern Treaty Organization with five founding members: Turkey, Israel, Iraq, India and the US.

6. Turkey should work together with the US to avert the Ayatullahs’ nuclear capacity threat and to liberate Iran from this unpopular and anachronistic regime. With Iran liberated, Turkey could become the leading force in an effort of unifying many countries between Greece and China, expanding Ataturk’s goal of ultimate modernization and genuine development from Turkey to all the Turkic speaking countries.

7. Turkey must show to the US the way to uproot Islamic Terror, focusing rather on the educational and cultural levels than on the military options. Within this context, it will be essential for Turkey to promote a modern Secular Concept of Muslim Society where there will be no Anti-Semitism and Hatred. The contents of the Khutbas (religious sermons preached at the mosques before the Friday noon prayer) of sheikhs in Turkey should become the international norm for and applied to all the Muslim countries of the world. Within the correct international frame, Turkey should control every khutbah preached on any mosque and reaction should be immediate and international.

All the aforementioned suggestions may need five to ten years to be materialized. Through some of these measures, Turkey will have achieved financial development that would permit immediate adhesion to the European Union (assuming it will exist until then), Through some other of the aforementioned measures, Turkey will have reached the political, social, cultural and academic levels of middle to higher European states. Without European money and subsidies, Turkey can make it.

In any case, even if negotiations started in September, the final adhesion was said to be in 10 to 15 years (2015 – 2020). Working on the same goals set by Ataturk, following up the international developments, readjusting itself accordingly, reshaping and renewing the economy, the culture and the thought, cooperating with its global partners, the US, Japan, Israel and India, Turkey can embark on a big 7-year project of Great Vision.

Say to Chirac: "See you in 2012".

By then, his successors may plead for an immediate adhesion of Turkey to Europe.