Growing Opposition to Bush Re-election

For the first time, more Americans say they would oppose President George Bush's re-election in 2004 than support a second term, according to a poll published yesterday that showed mounting pessimism over the US military presence in Iraq.

As attacks on coalition forces continue to inflict casualties, a Newsweek poll found that the human and economic costs of occupation were eroding the president's support at an accelerating rate.

Sixty-nine per cent of those asked were concerned that the US would be bogged down for many years in Iraq with little to show for it in improved security for Americans; 49% said they were very concerned.

At the same time Mr Bush's approval rating dropped to 53%, down 18% since April, and his lowest rating since before the September 11 attacks turned him from the victor of a disputed election presiding over a worsening economy into a wartime leader.

But the most jarring statistic for the White House looked forward to the 2004 election. Some 49% of Americans questioned in yesterday's poll said they did not want him re-elected, against only 44% prepared to give him a second term. The corresponding figures in April were 52% backing re-election with 38% opposed.

The change over four months represents a serious haemorrhage in support, reflecting a combination of long-term but spreading disenchantment with the president's economic stewardship and new doubts over where he is taking the country in his open-ended "war on terror".

In April, 74% of the country supported his handling of the situation in Iraq. Yesterday that figure was 54%. Americans are split between those who believe the administration's line that the invasion has undermined terrorist groups such as al-Qaida (45%) and those who think the opposite - that it has inspired a new generation of Islamist radicals to take up arms against America and its allies.

Despite the increasing doubts over how US troops can be extricated, a significant majority of Americans, 61%, still believe the invasion of Iraq was justified, and a slightly smaller majority would support the maintenance of a significant occupation force for up to two years.

The impact of the Iraq occupation on Mr Bush's standing has encouraged Democrats who, voters said yesterday, had the best approach to stimulating the economy and handling domestic issues such as health and education, a reversal since the beginning of the year.

Nine presidential contenders have joined the Democratic primary contest, with a 10th likely soon - General Wesley Clark, a former Nato commander.