Olympic Games 2012: Paris is Banking on Third Time Lucky

Paris stands on the verge of an historic Olympic achievement today. Whether it is one that will be celebrated or mourned on the Champs Elysées will only become clear this afternoon, when the International Olympic Committee president Jacques Rogge steps on to the stage at the Raffles City Convention Centre and announces the winner.

If Rogge finds the French capital's name scrawled inside the envelope he will open with theatrical effect at 12.47BST (19.47pm locally), the city will become the first three-times host of the greatest sporting show on earth. If he declares an alternative winner, however, Paris will have received an unprecedented snub, one which could have profound implications for the Olympic movement.

This is the third occasion Paris has put itself before the IOC, and a third defeat would send a strong message to potential bidders about the nature of the process.

The IOC has repeatedly stated that it values persistence and commitment to the Olympic movement above all else when it comes to the choice of a host city. It is, of course, a self-serving message, encouraging cities to return to the bidding floor even after being humiliated by the membership, as Paris was in 2001 when it polled only 18 votes when losing to Beijing.

IOC members will think long and hard before voting against a city that has shown willing for so long, one moreover which produced the founding father of the modern games, Baron Pierre de Coubertin, and consistently features in the upper echelons of the Olympic medals table.

There are candidates which seem to have an unbounded appetite for rejection, however. Istanbul keeps coming back for more, having staged four unsuccessful bids, because its government is constitutionally bound to bid.

Should Paris be rebuffed, however, the slight would be far more serious. It is a city with a rich sporting heritage, a history of government support for sport and an impressive technical proposal fashioned in part by Essar Gabriel. The deputy chief executive of Paris 2012, he was responsible for the management of eight venues at the 2000 games in Sydney, handled media relations at the football World Cup in 1998 and was chief executive of the 2003 World Athletics Championships, events which France hopes will be stepping stones to the ultimate prize.

"We are confident because we have what we believe to be a very good bid. When we wake up on July 7, I honestly believe there will be nothing more we could have done, however the result turns out," Gabriel said this week.

The fact that there remains a doubt that French persistence will pay off reflects not only the quality of London's campaign but the unpredictability of the IOC membership. Even under the iron leadership of Juan Antonio Samaranch votes were unpredictable and this, the most competitive contest in history, will reveal much about how Rogge's mandate is playing out.

Widely thought by London supporters to be agitating for Paris, he has also antagonised some members with his administration of the technocratic, overly fussy bidding procedure he inherited after the Salt Lake City scandal.

Defeat would effectively shatter what faith there is in the IOC's ability to repay loyalty. Paris would be unlikely to return and other cities would think twice before coming back, even if New York and other US venues will be tempted by the knowledge that the Olympics have been held in north America three times during the past 29 years to justify the vast television investment in the games.

The three-strikes-and-we-are-out threat has been one of the French capital's strongest arguments in the final hours of the campaign, but its team have been far less visible in the lobbies than rivals, in keeping with a bid which has done all it can to avoid being described as arrogant.

Should Paris not get the games it would also be a snub to the political establishment which has been so closely associated with the bid. No presentation has been complete without officials from national, regional and the city government, which has not always made for thrilling entertainment, given protocol that requires them all to speak. At times the bid chairman Philippe Baudillon, a diplomat, has looked worn out by the jostling suits at his side, though his charm has not been wasted on the international media.

The final throw of the dice comes today when President Chirac finally joins the party and leads a presentation that will make or break his country's Olympic future.

Defeat would be no less humiliating for him than the recent Euro "non", given that he has been closely involved in all three bids, the first of them for the 1992 games, when he was mayor of Paris. Few last night were willing to bet against Paris being declared a deserving winner. Should Paris fail, however, a bad year might be about to get worse for the president.

Latest odds: Paris 1-2, London 6-4, Madrid 12-1, New York 33-1, Moscow 50-1 (Coral).