Who's deserving? Part two of a four part Hall of Fame series.

In the second of a four part series, we look at those everyday players who are right on the edge, or just a little young, to fully evaluate their career for Baseball's Hall of Fame.
In part one of our Hall of Fame series, we told you who were locks for the Hall of Fame -- 13 everyday players who were destined to be enshrined in Cooperstown.

Today we look at those everyday players who are right on the edge or just a little young to fully evaluate their career.

CATCHER (On the edge/Too Young) -- There are no catchers that I can see on the horizon that need mention as "On the edge" or "Too Young." The drop-off after Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez is staggering.

FIRST BASE (On the edge) -- There are a ton of first basemen who have put up incredible numbers during the past fifteen years: Mo Vaughn has basically been forgotten this year, but his .298 lifetime batting average, 299 HR's, 977 RBI's, and .533 slugging percentage are formidable. Unfortunately, so is his waistline. I fear there could be a concern for more injuries as he gets older (a la Tony Gwynn). He's only 33, so he still may have three or four more very productive years. That would get him to about 450 HR's, which in today's world puts him on the edge.

Frank Thomas also has the waistline issue as he grows older, but his numbers are a little more solid than Vaughn's. A lifetime .319 hitter with 348 HR's and 1198 RBI's while slugging .577 makes him very close. I think the DH issue and defensive liabilities make him very edgy unless he puts up solid numbers for a few more years. 500 HR's would make him a lock.

Jeff Bagwell has roughly the same offensive numbers as his contemporaries, Thomas and Vaughn. His batting average is .303 and he has 338 HR's and 1178 RBI's while slugging .554. He has something else that makes him the most likely of the edgy first basemen to make the Hall. Bagwell has defense and speed. His defense is awesome at first base, physically and mentally. Also, he has stolen 172 bases, including 30-30 years in 1997 and 1999. The picture of the complete player, if Bagwell plays to his standard for the next four years, he is easily a lock for Cooperstown.

Fred McGriff has a long and storied career... maybe too long and too storied. Everything about him says "great player." Nothing says HOF. He has 436 HR's and a .287 lifetime batting average. Only once has he been in the top five in MVP voting and he hasn't finished in the top ten of an offensive category since 1995. The recent trade refusal may be the final straw for the voters. He's on the edge, but whatever numbers he finishes with, I don't think he gets in.

Rafael Palmiero may have had the quietest Hall of Fame career ever. He is still hitting for power at the age of 36 and shows little signs of slowing down (except his batting average has dipped the last few years). 426 HR's and 1419 RBI's with a .294 batting average certainly puts him in the edgy category. He also won three Gold Gloves; although one of those years he only played first base in 28 games, go figure. In the end I think he will get in, but it may take the veteran's committee. (Too Young) -- A number of players are just too young to evaluate, but we think, with some longevity they may make it. The best of them is probably Todd Helton, who hits very well in a Rockies uniform. When all is said done, though, will Rockies players be penalized for playing in Denver? Who knows?

SECOND BASE (On the edge) -- Craig Biggio is one of those strange cases. You just aren't sure if he has the stuff. Off hand you think, yeah sure Biggio is HOF caliber, but when you start to look at the career, the numbers just don't add up. He has four Gold Gloves, 175 HR's and 362 stolen bases, while batting a respectable .292, but somehow the whole thing doesn't jive together. It seems the parts are greater than the sum of the whole. Don't ask me why, it's just my opinion.

Jeff Kent has reeled off a handful of great seasons, but I feel he is destined to wallow on the edge forever. He will do just enough to stay in the voting for the maximum number of years, but he will never get 75 percent.

THIRD BASE (On the edge) Edgar Martinez -- He has to have a position, doesn't he? What do you do with him? You hope he retires in the next few years where his power numbers aren't all that great and you really don't have to worry about him. He has some stats in the career top twenty (OB Pct and OPS), but they aren't the glory numbers that the Hall demands. It's a shame he couldn't field. I would have loved to see coaches decide whether to play the guy who hits like Ted Williams and fields like Mavis Williams. In 1998 he played four games at first base and had six errors. I think it's enough to keep Edgar out.

(Too Young) -- Chipper Jones is on pace to have a great career. At age twenty-nine he has hit for over 200 HR's, has over 700 RBI's and has stolen over 100 bases all while hitting over .300. But, at 29, he may be too old to put up HOF numbers. A wait and see thing with Chipper, but I believe he will have to keep up this pace for another six or seven years to merit Cooperstown.

SHORTSTOP (On the edge) -- There is no one I would consider at this point to be on the edge. I thought I might put Barry Larkin here, but after looking at his career... it's just not enough. One caveat, though. Larkin has such a great reputation, the BBWA might just vote him in anyway.

(Too young) -- The big three are still too young to consider fully. A-Rod is probably a lock, almost today, if his career ended. At age 25 he has 216 HR and is batting .311 with a .566 slugging percentage. Oh yeah, he has stolen 141 bases while playing a pretty good SS in the field. Barring a catastrophe, a lock.

Nomar Garciaparra has only himself to blame if he doesn't get there. Nagging injuries are the only thing that can slow him down. He has improved his batting average at least 15 points every year. He's just getting better. If he can stay off the DL, he's got a good chance to make it.

Derek Jeter -- The only thing that screams HOF is maybe his batting average and those four rings. Everything else is a good solid player, but not HOF. His leadership skills, and the rings may get him in (as well as the NY writers), but skill wise he is not up there with Nomar and A-Rod.

OUTFIELD (On the edge) Albert Belle -- No matter how good his stats are, he will never get over 50% in the HOF voting and that's a shame because he was a great player.

Harold Baines -- He's still playing? Barely, but listen to these numbers: 18th in career games, 26th in AB's, 94th in runs, 37th in hits, 28th in total bases, 43rd in doubles, 40th in homeruns, 21st in RBI's, and 70th in walks. The problem is he hasn't played more than twenty-five games in the field since 1986 and only one since 1992. He will be the first long term DH to test the HOF market. I don't think he makes it. Funny thing is, if he were a terrible fielder but still played in the field and put up those same numbers, I think he gets in.

Jose Canseco -- If he can get some more playing time, I think he can hit 500 HR and 200 SB, that might be enough if he hobnobs with the right people during these last few years of his career.

Larry Walker is 34 and has 299 HR's and over 200 SB's. With his BA at .313, OB % at nearly .400, and a slugging percentage of .569, a goal of 400 HR's should easily put him in the HOF.

Garry Sheffield has quantity numbers similar to that of Walker, but he is almost two years younger. He could finish with 500 HR's if he plays another six or seven years and that, combined with his other accomplishments, should get him in despite his travails with the press and fans.

(Too young) -- The future is bright with Andruw Jones, Manny Ramirez, and Vladmir Guerrero. My guess is two out of the three are locks. But if given good odds, I would take three for three. They play at a level that is heads and tails above the rest of the league.

It's clear that these twenty-one players are very talented and some of the best to play in their era, but are they Hall of Fame caliber? My guess is that ten of them get in. My hunch is: Bagwell, Palmiero, C Jones, A-Rod, Garciaparra, Walker, Sheffield, A Jones, Ramirez, and Guerrero make it. The nice thing about these predictions? It may take twenty years for me to be proven wrong.

Part three of the series will cover the pitchers in their entirety (locks, edges, and too young) and part four will cover how the changes in baseball have changed what a HOF career looks like.

Later...

By Joey Ware
Published: 7/26/2001
 
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