Cambodia Edges Towards Change

The contrast between the two campaign convoys could not have been starker when two of Cambodia's main parties passed one another yesterday on the bank of the Mekong in their final effort to win support in tomorrow's general election.

The "dark blue" cacophony of cheerful chanting, rhythmic foot-stamping and honking horns eclipsed the stony-faced "light blue" parade, whose only riposte was a piercing but indecipherable blabber from a screeching megaphone.

The "darks" are the Sam Rainsy, one of the two main opposition parties, and the "lights" are the Cambodian People's party, which has for the past 24 years ruled a country which has yet to put behind it the genocide of the 1970's Khmer Rouge regime.

Only the most optimistic of opposition dreamers believe the CPP may lose control of the 123-seat national assembly. For even when they did not take the majority of seats, in the 1993 election, the former communists still seized control of the government.

Despite this, virtually everyone outside the CPP believes that the month of campaigning campaigning has demonstrated that the roots of democracy are finally taking hold in the authoritarian country, which relies on foreign aid to prevent it spilling into the ranks of failed states.

"This election has been much more balanced, because of the surprising openness of the media," said Chea Vannath, president of the Cambodian Centre for Social Development.

A significant reduction in election-related violence compared with the 1998 campaign has been another positive feature. There has only been one significant murder - an influential adviser to the leader of the royalist opposition party Funcinpec - and far fewer assaults.

The head of the US National Democratic Institute's Cambodia programme, Dominic Clancy, is upbeat. "Six years ago the supporters of these parties were killing each other," he said.

"Now they're able to sit down and respect each other's opinions."

The CPP naturally credits itself for this improvement. "The CPP develops schools, roads and is building infrastructure," the party president, Heng Samrin, said yesterday after watching the party rally in Kampong Cham, north-east of the capital, Phnom Penh.

"What the CPP is doing for the people is what the people want now and in the future."

But analysts and diplomats join opposition politicians in saying that the reality of life for most Cambodians is very different.

The openness, they say, is still at an embryonic stage and it will be decades before elections are free and fair. They believe the country has a long way to go before the state of permanent crisis - exemplified by poverty, corruption, a soaring population, rapidly rising HIV-infection, illegal immigration and a partisan legal system - are eased.

"This country is dying slowly, it is going down the drain, it is not moving," said Sam Rainsy, the US-backed leader of the party which bears his name.

"The bottom line of poverty is death. And if the death rate increases it shows that everything is going wrong."

The statistics bear him out. Cambodia is one of the few countries where illiteracy is still above 65%, and the infant mortality rate has risen in the past decade from 115 to 135 in 1,000 births. About 2.6% of the adult population is infected with HIV/Aids, one of the highest proportions outside sub-Saharan Africa.

Analysts say the peaceful atmosphere is a veneer, superimposed on a legacy of deep-rooted and brutal repression.

In a report on the campaign, a local human rights group, Licadho, said: "The CPP no longer needs to use violence because the message is now ingrained in the electorate."

In and around Kampong Cham, where there have been numerous reports of CPP-appointed village heads intimidating people into voting for the party, many voters are afraid to speak freely.

"I cannot criticise [the CPP]," Chan Toa said. "It might affect me or my family."

It is the preponderance of such opinion that prompts most people to expect that the status quo will continue.

But in a country with no opinion polls, where more than 90% of the 6.3 million registered voters are expected to cast ballots, there is no knowing what Monday's preliminary results will show.

"CPP might give me a T-shirt, Funcinpec might give me a T-shirt and Sam Rainsy might give me a T-shirt," said Tang Sokhaun, who lives in a Kleuy, a village without electricity or running water 15 miles from Kampong Cham.

"I will take them all but the party I am going to vote for stays in my head."