See You All Next Year, Blair Tells G8

Tony Blair did it again yesterday. At the G8 summit in St Petersburg, when the world's attention was focused on the crisis in the Middle East, the prime minister let slip that he doesn't plan to leave Downing Street - or be driven out - any time soon.

Asked on BBC TV whether he was looking forward to next year's G8 summit in Germany, he replied: "I have made it clear all the way I carry on doing the job. So I look forward to next year's G8, of course. But in the end the most important thing is to do the job."

Why does he do it? Not to annoy Gordon Brown, his anointed successor, as some critics will say. In what is almost certainly the last full year of the Blair premiership, relations between the rivals seem calmer again.

In any case, when even President Vladimir Putin, can treat himself to a summit dig about the imperfections of western democracies (tell us more about selling peerages, Russia's elected tsar asked reporters) Labour's accumulated troubles are now too serious to allow for self-indulgent squabbling.

This weekend the Labour leftwinger John McDonnell promised to stand when the time comes - to deny Mr Brown his unopposed "coronation". To underline the need for unity in the face of such unsettling threats the Brownites took Mr Blair's remarks in good humour last night as the chancellor concentrated on an even more important event: the imminent birth of his new baby which may happen as early as today.

Blair aides were quick to explain that the boss had simply taken a passing opportunity to squash media and opposition claims that he is so distracted by the cash-for-coronets investigation that he has finally run out of steam after the Metropolitan police arrested Lord Levy and close in on No 10.

That is the simple explanation, an attempt to counter the narrative insistently proclaimed by Planet Fleet Street with the view available from Planet Blair: he's going, but not this year. So when he was asked by the BBC's Politics Show about the 2007 G8 summit Mr Blair could have decided it was a trick question to lure him into the Big Leadership Question, and kicked it into touch. After nine years he is an expert obfuscator. "I've said all I'm going to say on that," is one of his stock replies.

Instead he chose to be more interesting. The world's news agencies kicked into action to report that "Britain's Blair" (Associated Press), "Britain's beleaguered prime minister" (Reuters) is not stepping aside as soon as many people have been predicting.

For good measure he went on to praise Lord Levy, insist that neither he nor any other party figure had broken the rules on fundraising to sell peerages and hint that he may have to ask for taxpayers' money if the rules are tightened further. He sounded confident. Even Roy Hattersley, who wants him out pronto, thinks he's done nothing wrong.

Does all that change anything? The practical answer is no. Fleet Street has long since convinced itself that it is all up with the War Criminal of Baghdad, one last push and he will be gone, taking John Prescott with him and opening up a promising new chapter: Brown v David Cameron.

But Fleet Street cannot make it happen any more than Blair can prevent it if things go badly for Lord Levy or any of his other myriad problems. On the home straight it is a test of wills and luck. Ever the optimist, the prime minister, like a tail order batsman on a fading wicket, thinks something will turn up to save the innings.

John Major, Margaret Thatcher, Jim Callaghan, most of them tried to defy their fate. Like Mr Blair they all had practical reasons for staying, reasons which rarely turn out as hoped.

In Blair's case it is the need to push harder on NHS reform and the rest; to take the strain and the media hits; to allow the chancellor time to deliver his latest comprehensive spending review next summer before moving next door. He could risk saying as much at Labour's autumn conference in Manchester, though he will not heed Lord Hattersley's plea yesterday to bow out there instead.

Insiders are now hinting that what Tony and Cherie have in mind is to get his 10th anniversary on the board - May 2 2007 - take the hit of election setbacks in Scotland, Wales and the town halls later that week, then quit during the summer holiday.

If they last that long. They certainly intend to try.