Promises, Promises in the Philippines

The deliberate lack of pomp and pageantry at yesterday's inauguration of the president of the Philippines, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, was meant to send as loud a signal to the struggling nation as the 21-gun salute that heralded her arrival at the ceremony. This is going to be a serious, hard-working administration that spurns ostentatious frills in favour of serving the people.

Fine sentiments, but can they be realised?

The biggest factor working in Ms Arroyo's favour is that she cannot seek re-election for another six-year term and does not really have a party base that is relying on her to remain popular. This makes the uncompromising stance of her inaugural address more credible. "The government must make tough choices," she said. "But this I promise: [We] will be tougher on those who have it easy than on those who have it tough already."

Success will also depend on how well the diminutive, American-trained economist can harness the supporters of the defeated presidential candidates, particularly those of her main challenger, the film star Fernando Poe Jr.

Ms Arroyo, 57, offered an olive branch - inviting the losers to join a "new government of political reform and economic change". "Our ability to unify will be judged by our ability to come together under a common vision that will erase the divisions that hold us back as a nation," she said.

At present, Mr Poe does not seem in a hurry to concede defeat after an exceedingly divisive campaign and marathon counting process, let alone support the president. His running mate, the outgoing senator Loren Legarda, said the pair might file a protest with the presidential electoral tribunal alleging that Ms Arroyo engaged in massive fraud to ensure her success.

"It's still an option, because we have the evidence," Ms Legarda told local reporters. Ms Arroyo denies any wrongdoing.

Many analysts believe the opposition is engaging in little more than bluster - citing the lack of promised demonstrations as one indication - but might seek revenge in the legislature by trying to derail the Arroyo reforms.

Much harder to combat will be vested political interests at the local level and endemic corruption in much of the bureaucracy and law enforcement agencies. About one-third of the population of 84 million people still live on less than US$1 (£0.55) a day, and much of the nation is dependent on money repatriated from the massive overseas-worker population.

Today's surge in the Manila stock market to a two-month high suggests there is a reservoir of optimism waiting to be tapped. But if Ms Arroyo's first three years in office are anything to go by - she became president in January 2001, after Joseph Estrada was ousted in a military-backed people-power uprising - then the Philippines will do little more than tread water.

Her campaign promises - to create 1m jobs a year, put a computer in every classroom, provide water and electricity to every part of the country and eliminate the budget deficit by 2009 - look set to remain just that.

Fractious political infighting is the biggest impediment, many analysts believe. "It never ceases to amaze me how divisive politics can be and, unfortunately, I think they seem to be getting more divisive," said Stephen Wilford, an analyst for the Control Risks consultancy.

Many newspaper have, in editorials this week, given Ms Arroyo the benefit of the doubt. "Every new administration deserves to be given a chance," the Philippine Star said. "The nation has a lot of catching up to do with its neighbours, but this can be possible only if we all buckle down to work and get our act together."

But it is unclear how long the honeymoon will last, particularly with continuing Islamic and communist insurgencies raging in the southern islands.

"She's making the right sounds, she's talking the talk," Mike Moran, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank, told Reuters. "Now's the time to really walk the walk as well. That's what she's going to be judged on."