EU at Critical Point, Warns Danish Pm

Failure to make a decision on expanding the European Union by mid-December would be a "political disaster", Denmark warned yesterday on the eve of its crucial six months running union business.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the prime minister, predicted great disappointment and grave consequences if the 15 members failed to deliver on promises made a decade ago. Ten countries are queuing impatiently for membership."It would be a political disaster and the judgment of posterity would be severe if this generation of European leaders did not succeed in making a decision on enlargement," he said.

The stark warning came as Mr Rasmussen's coalition government prepared to take over the EU's rotating presidency from Spain on Monday. Danish efforts are focusing on December's Copenhagen summit, where the successful candidates are to be invited to join, probably in 2004.

Bitter rows are already looming over farm subsidies and finance, with little agreement likely before September's elections in Germany. Faltering negotiations over Cyprus and Ireland's new referendum on the Nice treaty are also potential problems.

Mr Rasmussen insisted that plans to reform the EU's common agricultural policy (CAP) - which consumes nearly half of the union's €90bn (£58bn) budget - could not be a precondition for enlargement.

Some of the 10 candidates -Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Malta and Cyprus - are deeply unhappy with an offer of just 25% of the direct farm payments given to existing members, rising to 100% over 10 years.

Next month the European commission is due to unveil plans to partially overhaul the CAP, though fuller changes will have to wait until 2006.

But as the Danish prime minister acknowledged, the problem of Ireland's rejection of the Nice treaty could pose the biggest obstacle to hopes of an unprecedented "big bang" expansion.

Nice, thrown out in a shock Irish referendum result last summer, streamlines rickety and complex EU decision-making to cope with the admission of the newcomers.

"A new 'no' will jeopardise the whole enlargement process," Mr Rasmussen said.

The Danish leader warned that even a short delay in enlargement might mean a long postponement.

From 2003 there will be big distractions in the form of constitutional discussions about the EU's future, treaty negotiations and skirmishing over a new budget.

Yesterday Bertie Ahern, the Irish prime minister, launched a campaign to win voter support for the treaty ahead of a new referendum in the autumn, saying Ireland was appearing selfish in the eyes of the world.

"Europe's been good to us, and I don't see why we should have it within our call to give other people a ferocious kick in the ankles.

"The applicant countries have worked so hard for a decade to achieve this - and it's within our power to tell them to go to hell," he said.