Serbians Offered Choice Between Past and Future

After 18 months with no head of state Serbia faces a crucial choice tomorrow at the presidential elections, a ballot seen as the country's most important since Slobodan Milosevic was overthrown four years ago.

In what is being billed as a choice between the past and the future, Tomislav Nikolic, an extreme nationalist from a party led by a jailed war crimes suspect, is up against Boris Tadic, a respected former defence minister and democratic successor to the assassinated prime minister Zoran Djindjic.

It is the fourth presidential election in 18 months, the others have failed because the turnout was too low. This time the rules on turnout have been abolished to ensure a successful election.

Mr Nikolic's Radical party, nationalists who continue to hanker after Milosevic's failed Greater Serbia project, is the main opposition and the largest party in the Serbian parliament.

Mr Tadic's Democratic party is also in opposition.

Mr Nikolic came first in a void presidential election last year and also won the first round of the current contest a fortnight ago, but failed to get the required absolute majority.

The polls suggest Mr Tadic could win tomorrow as he has secured the support of the principal losers in the first round.

"The candidates have offered the public two different paths," Djordje Vukic, of the Centre for Free Elections and Democracy, told a Belgrade press conference. His organisation, considered reputable and accurate, judged Mr Nikolic to be behind Mr Tadic - who Gallop said had a 10-point lead.

"The world is watching to see what direction Serbia will take," Mr Tadic told a rally .

Much will hinge on the turnout. Mr Nikolic's mainly rural support is easily mobilised, while the liberal, urban and middle-class bedrock of support for Mr Tadic is seen as less likely to vote.

A low turnout could favour Mr Nikolic, whose victory would not be welcomed by western embassies and international organisations in Belgrade.

Although the powers of the head of state are limited, the election is seen as a crucial pointer to the way Serbia might be heading.

A Tadic victory would signal greater cooperation with the west, while a Nikolic win would entrench the country's international isolation and signal a partial return to the nationalist and authoritarian excesses experienced during the Milosevic era.