Bleak outlook for Powell's peace conference plan

A Middle East peace conference planned for later this year appears to be the first casualty of George Bush's speech.

The peace conference, an idea being pushed by the US secretary of state, Colin Powell, was initially scheduled for July and then postponed until September. Israeli and Palestinian ministers, though not leaders, would have met together with representatives from other Middle East countries, the US, the EU, the UN and Russia.

But Mr Bush, reluctant to be sucked into anything that might fail, made no reference to the conference in his speech. The British government, while insisting the idea was not yet dead, yesterday said there was no point going into such a conference unless the groundwork was properly prepared.

What next for the Palestinians? Mr Bush said there could be a Palestinian state in three years if the Palestinian Authority reformed its political, judicial and financial institutions and cracked down on militant groups.

The Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, on Monday seemed to shift in that direction when he set a date for elections to the Palestinian assembly, January next year, and to the council elections, March next year.

But that is unlikely to produce the result Mr Bush wants: Mr Arafat's rejection by the Palestinian people. Mr Arafat's new-look cabinet does not show a predisposition towards reform.

Haim Ramon, likely to be a candidate for leadership of Israel's Labour party, expressed scepticism about the chances of Palestinian change: "The demand that the Palestinians become a mini-America is not realistic. Nations are not usually quick to change leadership simply because another country demands it."

Nor have Mr Arafat's hints of reform of the security services so far resulted in any significant change of personnel. Without a unified, powerful security force, Mr Arafat has no chance of combating the growing strength of the militant groups, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the offshoot of his own Fatah movement, the Al-Aqsa Brigades. The militant groups will continue to have a veto on the peace process, able to disrupt any move towards a peace process through suicide bombings or ambushes.

The prime concern for Mr Bush over the next few months will be the Congressional mid-term elections in November. The support that he offered to the Israelis in his speech will play much better with the US electorate than leaning towards the Palestinians.

The Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon, will also be consumed soon with elections, which have to be held by late next year. He has to watch the threat from his right, from Benjamin Netanyahu. At present there is little sign of a resurgence of the Labour party and, with it, the peace camp.

A tough line with the Palestinians has proved electorally popular so far. Although saying publicly he supports a Palestinian state, Mr Sharon appears hell-bent on dismantling what is left of the Palestinian authority, as the Israeli army yesterday effectively completed the reoccupation of the West Bank.