The Wheel of Terror

In response to my last article "Terrorism versus Definitions" I have received several emails asking me to explain how we can affect, detect and stop terrorist acts from happening. I will say right away that these are points not easily taught in an article; alas it is difficult enough to do so in a book, as I tried in my first book "SD Agent – The Surveillance Detection Manual. Hence I am busy writing my second book "Terrorist Modus Operandi" which covers in detail the complete "Wheel of Terror". However the first step in counter terrorism should always be to understand the terrorist’s methods of operation or Modus Operandi in Latin as it is referred to by professionals. The aim of this article is to briefly explain the 8 phases of the Terrorist Planning Process; I refer to this process as the Wheel of Terror. This article will enable the reader to understand the terrorist planning process, from its initial phases and through the final phases which are the Attack and the Exploitation phases. Investigations into Terrorist attacks have proven that the planning cycle is the basically the same in all incidents; whether they are of economic cause or of political cause.

The Wheel of Terror consists of Eight Phases which are:
1. Original Cause
2. Initial Surveillance
3. Target Selection
4. Pre-Attack Surveillance
5. Planning
6. Rehearsal
7. Execution
8. Escape & Exploitation

Phase 1: The Original Cause
To determine this phase it is necessary to understand the aim of the terrorist group and find out what it was that set them off! Find out who they conceive as being their main enemy and who do they conceive as being supportive of their main enemy. The answers to these questions will determine their target selection. They could conceive their main enemy to be; Governments, Corporations, Individuals, Facilities, Ethnic Groups, Social Groups or Business Connections etc. If for instance the main enemy is conceived as being a Government then the cause or "reasons" could be; Independence, Ethnic, Political, Humanitarian, Religious, Environmental, Animal Rights, Foreign Policy or due to a Military Alliance etc. During the determination of the Original Cause the terrorists will gather information from open sources such as; Newspapers, Magazines, Phonebooks & Yellow Pages, TV News Channels and Internet Sources etc. They will also try to obtain information from Intelligence sources, either through open sources such as Stratfor.com, Jane’s Defense or through "sponsor governments". Terrorist’s attacks for political reasons are usually aimed at "High Profile Media Attention" such as we have seen in the 9-11 WTC and Pentagon attacks. The specific objectives as well as the capabilities of the terrorist group will determine what type of target is chosen, however all attacks requires information about the target in order to select the best option for an attack.

Phase 2: Initial Surveillance
The information gathered during this phase is gathered over a significant time span! A US survey has shown that "No known attack on a US facility has been done with less then three weeks surveillance". The Terrorists will gather information about; Routes, Routines, Procedures, Methods of Transportation, Security Measures, Protection Measures, Residences, Facilities and Workplaces. This is where the terrorist’s are most vulnerable as they will often be using "amateurs" from the "Grassroots" of their organization or sympathizers. The important factor to remember is that if the terrorists can see the target, then the target can also see the terrorists. The type of surveillance will depend on the specific target and its activities, the most common forms of surveillance are; Static Observation Posts, Mobile Surveillance, Pedestrian Surveillance and Electronic by Video, bugging or tracking etc. The best defense against this phase is Surveillance Detection around specific facilities and Surveillance Detection Routes when the target is mobile.

"Observe your enemies, for they first find out your faults."
Antisthenes (445 BC - 365 BC)

Phase 3: Target Selection
After having completed the initial surveillance phase the terrorists will make a final choice of target, or at least narrow down their target list to those targets that offer the best options, based on the information obtained in the first two phases. If it is a Political target they will choose the target that offers the highest political statement versus the risk involved, if it is an economic target then they will choose the target that offers the highest financial gain versus the risk involved. The political target will be aimed at high profile media attention to affect a larger audience then just the specific target. The economic target will usually only affect the specific target although another political attack may be used as a diversion.

Phase 4: Pre-Attack Surveillance
This is the phase where the terrorists verify the information gathered during the earlier phases and compare it with the several different attack methods and options; they will also perform surveillance again to see if anything important has been missed in the earlier phases or if there have been any significant changes since the earlier surveillance took place. The surveillance aim now is to gather specific target related information about; Route Options, Target Habits, Accessibility, Operations Hours, Structural Strength etc. The type of surveillance conducted depends on the specific target and its security, again the terrorists will be vulnerable while performing surveillance and although the terrorists doing the surveillance at this stage is usually better trained or experienced, there will still be the same possibilities for detection as during the initial surveillance phase.

Phase 5: Planning
During this phase all the information acquired during the earlier phases is combined together and compared with one or more specific attack methods in mind and a plan begins to take form. All planning is done very carefully as there is obviously a price to pay in case of failure, such as injury, imprisonment, or death. This price can be too high to pay for some terrorist’s and therefore planning is done carefully in order to ensure a high probability of success. The terrorists will assess the information gathered, complete security surveys, and pre-plan the logistics of the operation, recruit terrorists with specific skills such as explosives, weapons, breaking and entering, advanced driving skills or even pilot skills. They will also set up their bases for operation and safe-houses and pay special attention to planning their evasion and escape methods, unless of course it is a suicide mission. Finally they will finalize the method of attack. In order to gain tactical superiority the terrorists will need to; Surprise the target and the target’s defense forces, if a firearms attack they will need to have open fields of fire. They must be able to have control of the target at the specific location of the attack, control time and conditions, have setup their support positions, diversions or secondary attack sites and options etc. During this phase they will need to complete their logistics and acquire the necessary items; Vehicles, Finances, False ID’s, Weapons, Explosives, Specialized Tools and disguises such as repair service clothing, uniforms etc.

Phase 6: Rehearsal
During this phase the terrorist’s will need to rehearse the attack plan in order to fine-tune it, they will verify all relevant information, test their equipment, fire firearms, drive vehicles, instruct each person involved. They will confirm that the target activities are in accordance with the plan; test the security forces and try their escape routes. Many of these tests can be conducted by using third party individuals who are unaware of the real purpose and the plan. Once they have completed their rehearsals they will verify that they still have approval from higher authorities within their group to carry out the attack, they will improve the plan and go through "what ifs". They will practice all mobile parts of the plan such as infiltration and ex-filtration plans, all this is done to ensure that the attack will succeed.

Phase 7: Execution
This is the phase where the terrorists deploy their attack team/s, infiltrate their specific locations and setup their support positions and wait for the target to appear at the attack site if it is a mobile target. A "point-man" will then decide whether to abort the attack or to go ahead and attack and whether to evade and escape or hold. The bad news is that if the terrorists get a far as the execution phases, then they are very likely to succeed! Whether it is an Assassination attempt, a bombing, a kidnapping, a hostage and barricade, a high jacking or a safe distance attack, if they have gotten this far they will succeed in causing damage, injury or death to innocent people.

Phase 8: Escape & Exploitation
Almost all terrorists wants to escape, the exception is the fanatic or religiously motivated terrorists and sometimes even they will have second thoughts and try to escape if they can, as was the case with one of the terrorist’s in the Kenya Embassy bombing in Africa in 1998. Secondly the terrorists will want to use the media coverage they have gained from the attack to further their political or religiously goals, this is why terrorist groups claim responsibility for their attacks and often for other groups attacks as well. This is also why they often have someone filming the attack or the immediate aftermath of the attack. Unfortunately the western Medias crave for death, carnage and mutilations, the more casualties or damage the attack caused the more media attention the terrorist group will get, basically the type of PR and media time that even large corporations cannot afford to buy from CNN, BBC etc. Or they will want to use the finances acquired if it was an economic attack. The fact is that "Successful Attacks Bring the Most Media Attention, Notoriety and Financial Support and that is what encourages the Terrorists to try Again, which sets of another Wheel of Terror!

Summary
All personnel working in infrastructure and other potential terrorist targets, security, counter terrorism and law enforcement must understand the terrorist and his means of operation, if they wish to be able to stop him. "It takes a thief to catch a thief" and it takes the mind of a terrorist to catch a terrorist. So we must learn to think the way they do and see our weak points of opportunity as they do, only then will we know where and when they will strike.

My final words of wisdom are taken from a Jewish Proverb:
"If a man comes to kill you, wake up early and kill him first"

This is what we must do, we know terrorist are coming to attack us, therefore we must be prepared and we must affect them, detect them and stop them in their initial phases of their planning process. It is preferably to detain them, convict them and sentence them, as failed attacks causes a loss of face and status of the terror group and thus helps with undermining their support base. We must concentrate on detecting them before they have opportunity to cause terror; this is a responsibility that we all share, we must be vigilant and prepared, this is not a matter that law enforcement and the intelligence services can do alone, we must all join hands to affect, detect and stop terrorism.

"Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty"
Thomas Jefferson

Dan Sommer is a regular contributor to Protection News Magazine and he is the author of the SD Agent, a Surveillance Detection Manual. He has been part of the process of designing, implementing and training a SD team for a European Embassy. His 17 years security career started in 1986 and he has active experience from military, security, close protection, counter assault team and surveillance detection operations. Since 1994 the author has been writing training program’s for security companies and police departments. He has instructed on security and protection courses world-wide for security officers, bodyguards, police officers, counter assault teams and surveillance detection units. Dan currently acts as the International Director of the World Federation of Bodyguards and has a private business as a Security & Protection Consultant. He publishes a monthly Security & Protection newsletter; his work can be viewed at his website www.DanSommer.Biz and www.SurveillanceDetection.Biz.