Capriati to muscle in on sister act

There used to be a standard scene in television detective stories when an overly impressed policeman asked the officer conducting the murder inquiry how he'd cracked the case. 'It was just a hunch, sonny, just a hunch,' came the smug reply.

Picking winners of grand slam tennis tournaments can be just as scientific, although at this year's Wimbledon, despite most of the usual suspects being present in the women's singles, recent results suggest there are only three who can win it - the American trio who have monopolised the past eight grand slams: sisters Venus and Serena Williams and Jennifer Capriati. Venus has won four of the eight, including the past two Wimbledons, Capriati three and Serena one.

Serena is the one with form, having just picked up the French Open in Paris, but - and it's just a hunch - watch out for Capriati, who is seeded to meet Serena in the semi-finals.

It is disappointing that there are so few contenders, particularly because a year ago the women's game looked more open at the top than it had done for a long time. When Venus Williams won Wimbledon in 2000, she was the fifth different winner of the title in as many years, a sequence of change unheard of for more than 50 years.

So what has happened? Well, blame the Williams sisters. They have sped away from the field, taking only Capriati with them. In trying to stay in touch, players such as Lindsay Davenport, the 1999 Wimbledon winner, and Martina Hingis, the champion in 1997, have pulled up lame and will be missing from this year's championships; others such as Monica Seles and Mary Pierce have started to feel their age; and the best of the new generation, Jelena Dokic, Kim Clijsters, Justine Henin and Daniela Hantuchova, have been unable to sustain a challenge against the power of the front runners.

Henin, who took a set off Venus Williams in last year's Wimbledon final, is the one who may spring a surprise. She had good wins over Capriati and Serena Williams on clay in Berlin last month, but she was ill when she lost in the first round in Paris and is unlikely to have the stamina to last two weeks on grass.

There is a tendency to overlook just how good the Williamses are and concentrate instead on their controversial rivalry, which has seen them play each other eight times, most recently in the French final, without ever summoning the competitive verve they show against other players. This, inevitably, raises questions. Why, for example, did Venus take 20 to 30kph off her serve for the final in Paris? My own view is that they don't fix their matches, which is not the same as saying they give of their best when they meet. Playing a family member in front of a big crowd cannot be easy.

In nearly all other matches, the Williamses have been superb recently with their combination of power and athleticism, particularly power, making them nigh on irresistible. Their performances in the French Open swept them past Capriati to become numbers one and two in the world rankings for the first time and for as long as they maintain these positions, which guarantee that they are made top seeds, their only meetings will be in finals.

As others sweat and toil on the practice courts to catch up with the sisters, it will come as little comfort to them that Serena Williams no longer feels the need to put in the long hours to maintain her dominance. 'I'll be honest with you,' she said in Paris, 'I'm not one to go out and work extra hard. I've been play ing since I was four, 16 years, and I figure if I can't do it by now I'll probably never be able to do it.

'When I go out to practise now I do quality over quantity. There's things I'd rather be doing than staying on the court all day. In order for me to stay focused and still love it the way I do, I couldn't stay out there for 10 hours at a time. I just couldn't fathom that.'

Capriati, with her muscle-packed hitting, is the only one who has shown herself consistently capable of matching the Williamses. If anything, her competitive fire is even more intense than that of the sisters and she does believe she can win Wimbledon on the surface most suited to her game. And my hunch is that this is her year.

LATEST BETTING:

6-5 V Williams
6-4 S Williams
13-2 J Capriati
16 J Henin
20 K Clijsters
25 M Seles
33 J Dokic
50 D Hantuchova
66 A Mauresmo
100 A Myskina
150 A Stevenson, C Rubin, C Fernandez, M Shaughnessy, A Smashnova
200 A Frazier, A Kournikova, B Schett, E Dementieva, L Raymond, M Pierce, P Schnyder, S Testud
250 N Zvereva