The Demise of the Panda

The young giant panda is snoozing up a tree, in classic panda pose. His substantial bum is splayed over the fork of one branch, while his head and one paw dangle over another branch to counterbalance the weight. Above and beyond are wooded slopes, deep gorges and - eventually - primeval forest. The largest number of pandas surviving in the wild lives here in the Wolong Nature Reserve of Sichuan province in western China.

There may only be 1,000 or so pandas left in China (only fossil remains have been found outside), scattered across six separate mountain ranges from north-west to south-west. Abroad and at home, "saving the panda" has been a high-profile business for more than 20 years. The Chinese government has set up a string of reserves and taken increasingly tough measures to preserve panda habitat. At first the emphasis was placed on research and "rescuing" pandas at risk in the wild. Rescue was often a euphemism for capture in order to stock Chinese centres and zoos, and to trade with foreign institutions in return for money - usually referred to as "rent-a-panda".

In the past 10 years, the emphasis has shifted towards breeding, to maintain the captive stock and - in theory - provide an eventual source of animals to reintroduce into the wild.

But the Chinese panda breeding effort has been undermined by internal arguments. Wolong and the Giant Panda Breeding Research Base at Chengdu, 100 miles away, are supposed to work together, but as so often in China, organisations which should work together are at war. "The main obstacles are not scientific, says a Beijing biologist, "but [the clash of] ideology between institutions."

Wolong has declared its intention to "send pandas back into the wild" by 2005. Wolong's director Zhang Hemin explains the strategy: "First, captive-bred pandas will be reared in a semi-natural environment. Then, after they have learned survival skills there, we will open the door to the wild." It will be the first time that the natural population has been increased by breeding: only captured pandas have been "reintroduced" until now.

Other experts are not convinced. "Reintroduction may or may not have a role," says biologist Donald Lindburg of San Diego Zoo, "but there is still a long way to go."

Li Guanghan, director at the Chengdu, meanwhile, is a passionate hi-tech breeder: in August he announced plans to produce the first test-tube panda cub "in one or two years". A few weeks later Pan Wenshi, known as "the father of the giant panda", issued a virtual denial, backed by the Wolong centre. He said that panda numbers could be maintained through normal breeding without any need for "hi-tech science".

The breeding enthusiasts are blunt about the pandas' sex life. A notice in the Chengdu panda museum spells it out: "The male panda's penis is so short, and the female's vagina is so long relatively, that the insemination rate is low."

Perhaps not surprisingly, male pandas are poor performers away from nature. If they do manage to mate, it will be under close scrutiny. No one denies that captive populations are needed for research and to maintain public support for conservation. But the critics say that the current emphasis on breeding and reintroduction ignores some awkward facts.

First, the captive population is simply not self-sustaining: too few cubs are born and not enough survive. This will soon lead to genetic inbreeding - especially if the Wolong and Chengdu populations are kept apart. Second, a complete revolution will be needed in captive rearing to have any chance of equipping pandas to fend for themselves. At present the cubs are weaned too early so that their mothers can have another chance of pregnancy. Third, it is quite possible that there are enough pandas in the wild already: if so, the top priority must be to preserve and improve their habitat.

Both Wolong and Chengdu, meanwhile, are keen to attract sponsors who for the equivalent of thirty thousand yuan (£2,500) or more, can adopt a panda for a year. The deal with Wolong includes having the donor's picture (plus up to five friends) taken with the chosen panda. The adopters' names are displayed on brass plates. The current list includes Class B-9 of the La Jolla elementary school, Stern Magazine, a Belgian couple, a lot of Japanese, and two Chinese cigarette companies. A panda in Chengdu has been adopted by the tissue-paper manufacturer Kimberly-Clark, which has logged quite a few forests over the years. Its name? Kimberly-Clark.