Henry Fears for Kiwi Pack

For years England sides prepared to face the All Blacks with all the enthusiasm of lambs boarding a truck to the abattoir. These days, even in deepest Otago, it is the other way around and Graham Henry's press briefing before tomorrow's first Test at Carisbrook has reinforced the feeling that New Zealand rugby is at a crossroads.

To All Black fans of a certain age, much of Henry's text was almost heresy. The gist was that New Zealand will do well to contain the English pack even without Martin Johnson and Neil Back, that Super 12 rugby is not producing Test forwards of the requisite toughness and that it could be more than a decade before Europe's leading nations once again fear the silver fern. If the 58-year-old Henry was trying to pull the wool over English eyes, he did a wonderfully deft job.

Yet as Sir Clive Woodward and his side set out in search of a 13th successive Test win over Tri Nations opposition in a sequence lasting four years, Henry argues that it really is time for the southern hemisphere to take stock. Having coached Wales and the Lions before returning home, he has seen both sides of the divide and his obvious pleasure at finally inheriting the All Black coaching job has swiftly been leavened with realism.

"I think we're quite isolated here," he said yesterday, sitting in the hotel where England stayed on their "Tour of Hell" in 1998 when All Black supremacy was still unquestioned. "We're a long way away from the heart of rugby in Europe and a lot of people still feel the All Blacks should be No1 without having any real knowledge of what is happening over there. Most of the Super 12 games haven't got the same intensity up front as there is in Europe. There has been a drift away from establishing a forward platform from which to play the game and there has to be a drift back if the All Blacks want to be major contenders in the future."

To ram home his point, Henry even draws comparisons between Woodward's high-achieving squad and the legendary 1971 Lions under Carwyn James, the last touring side to force the Kiwis back to the drawing board. "The 1971 Lions sat New Zealand rugby on its backside and made us think very seriously about what we were doing. There was a major change at grass-roots level towards a more expansive game which I think was the basis of us winning the World Cup in 1987.

"Lately we've concentrated on the Jonah Lomus, the Jeff Wilsons and the Tana Umagas to do something brilliant to win and we haven't concentrated enough on the efficiency of the unit to produce a top team."

But even as Henry expressed a wish to hire a specialist goalkicking coach after statistics showed New Zealand would have won all their games over the past four years had their kickers been remotely as accurate as Jonny Wilkinson, he acknowledged that All Black morale had been bruised by their World Cup disappointment under John Mitchell.

Henry wants two years to instil what has inevitably been dubbed his "Black to Basics" ethos but he and his assistants Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith have had only four days to work directly with a squad whose last Test was the World Cup semi-final defeat to Australia in November. Only one of the Probables pack they picked for last week's trial will start against England and, for all the class of Richie McCaw and Chris Jack, Henry is clearly concerned about the tourists' brute strength and discipline.

Some things, at least, never change, with Henry being forced to distance himself from reported comments by his scrum-half Justin Marshall on the tired old theme of English arrogance. "I think it's a bullshit statement and I would be very surprised if he made it," growled Henry.

The former Lions coach is also sidestepping any personal rancour left over from the 2001 tour of Australia when, he now concedes, he did "some things I wouldn't repeat". He admits he found it hard to coach the Lions and Wales simultaneously, an observation which may give Woodward food for thought before the Lions tour here next year.

Before then, the onus is on New Zealand's forwards to front up on a cold night against opponents braced for an old-fashioned route one contest. If England can win the collisions, they should win the game.

Scotland have made two changes for Sunday's first Test against Australia in Melbourne. Hugo Southwell makes a debut at full-back in place of Chris Paterson, who is flying home after breaking his cheekbone, and Dan Parks replaces Gordon Ross at fly-half. The lock Radike Samo and the centre Clyde Rathbone make debuts for the Wallabies.

15 Mils Muliaina (Auckland)

14 Doug Howlett (Auckland)

13 Tana Umaga (Wellington, capt)

12 Daniel Carter (Canterbury)

11 Joe Rokocoko (Auckland)

10 Carlos Spencer (Auckland)

9 Justin Marshall (Canterbury)

1 Kees Meeuws (Auckland)

2 Keven Mealamu (Auckland)

3 Carl Hayman (Otago)

4 Chris Jack (Canterbury)

5 Keith Robinson (Waikato)

6 Jono Gibbes (Waikato)

7 Richie McCaw (Canterbury)

8 Xavier Rush (Auckland)

Replacements: A Hore (Taranaki), T Woodcock (N Harbour), J Collins (Wellington), M Holah (Waikato), B Kelleher (Waikato), N Evans (N Harbour), S Tuitupou (Auckland)

15 Josh Lewsey (Wasps)

14 James Simpson-Daniel (Gloucester )

13 Mike Tindall (Bath)

12 Mike Catt (London Irish)

11 Ben Cohen (Northampton)

10 Charlie Hodgson (Sale)

9 Matt Dawson (Northampton)

1 Trevor Woodman (Sale)

2 Steve Thompson (North'ton)

3 Julian White (Leicester)

4 Danny Grewcock (Bath)

5 Simon Shaw (Wasps)

6 Chris Jones (Sale)

7 Richard Hill (Saracens)

8 Lawrence Dallaglio (Wasps, capt)

Replacements: M Regan (Leeds), M Stevens (Bath), S Borthwick (Bath), J Worsley (Wasps), A Gomarsall (Gloucester), S Abbott (Wasps), T Voyce (Wasps)