South Africa Braced for Zuma Rape Verdict

South Africa's most controversial court case since the end of apartheid culminates today with a verdict in the rape trial of the former deputy president Jacob Zuma.

Mr Zuma stands accused of raping a 31-year-old family friend. His career hangs on the verdict, but his reputation has already been sullied by revelations that he knowingly had sex with an HIV-positive woman without using a condom. She says it was rape; he says it was consensual.

Mr Zuma, who faces a 15-year sentence, is also awaiting a separate trial for corruption and fraud in July.

Public interest in the rape case is so high that the verdict by Judge Willem van der Merwe will be broadcast live on television and radio. The judge has said it will take him six hours to read the judgment.

Far from avoiding publicity, Mr Zuma, 64, convened rallies in his home town, Durban, on Saturday and Johannesburg on Sunday. He held hands with ministers praying for his acquittal and danced to Zulu songs singing his praises. He told the crowds he was not able to comment on the case, but expressed gratitude for their support. "It gives me the strength to go on," he said.

During the trial he said his accuser, an Aids activist, had signalled she was willing to have sex by wearing a knee-length skirt and sitting without crossed legs. He said he reduced his risk of infection by taking a shower after intercourse.

The accuser, who cannot be named under South African law, was grilled over her sexual history. She said she had been previously raped at the ages of five, 13 and 14. Several men testified that she had falsely accused them of rape. Outside the court 3,000 of Mr Zuma's supporters set fire to her portrait, shouting "burn the bitch", and angrily threatened her.

The case is thought to have damaged South Africa's efforts to prevent rape and reduce the spread of Aids, both of which are among the world's highest.

Mr Zuma has retained undeniable popularity, particularly among the least educated and unemployed, but his support from the trade unions has weakened. The verdict will largely determine whether he can pursue his ambition to succeed Thabo Mbeki as president in 2009.

If acquitted, his supporters are already pressing for him to be reinstated as the ANC's deputy president. Mr Mbeki sacked Mr Zuma as the country's deputy president in July last year when he faced charges of corruption. After being charged with rape in November, Mr Zuma stepped down from any active role in the ANC.

His accuser has a difficult future. Whatever the verdict, she faces the prospect of violent reprisals and is expected to leave the country for her own safety.

Political analyst Judith February said the case had great significance for South Africa. "This is not just about whether or not Jacob Zuma is guilty of rape. It is about what calibre of leadership we want. Do we want leadership in the battle against Aids and the fight against rape and violence against women? Do we want to uphold the freedoms enshrined in our constitution? Will women feel free to press charges of rape when this woman has been burned in effigy, stoned and must leave the country? This trial raises these very uncomfortable questions."