Horse Racing: Washington Could Refuse Derby

If second-guessing Aidan O'Brien is a game for fools, then doing the same with the mind of John Magnier is like playing Find The Lady after a bottle of champagne. It is just as difficult to resist, too, as the men behind George Washington start to consider the alternatives for one of the most impressive 2,000 Guineas winners in a generation.

It is human nature to see what you want to see in a race like the Guineas, and George Washington was the one horse in Saturday's Classic with the clear potential to produce something exceptional. Even allowing for a degree of wish-fulfilment, however, the explosion of speed that carried him through his field and into a clear lead was evidence of a rare gift.

Since the Guineas is now more of a starting point for the international racing season than an end in itself, the task for O'Brien and Magnier is to harness that power as fully - and profitably - as possible, with his eventual covering fee at Coolmore Stud a prime consideration.

The most difficult decision, though, is surely the first one: should George Washington take up the supplementary Derby entry that was made just a few weeks ago? The Irish 2,000 Guineas and the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot are obvious alternatives, but both races are, when set against the Derby, just another Group One.

One argument would have the Derby as something of a bet to nothing with George Washington. Since hardly anyone would expect him to get the 12-furlong trip in any case, defeat would not detract significantly from his stud value, while victory would add several noughts to the value of a long career at Coolmore.

There is no such thing as a free race, however, at Epsom most of all. Were an "arrogant colt" - O'Brien's words - like George Washington to experience utter exhaustion and thorough defeat in the space of two and a half minutes, it could be the end of him. And who would want to risk ending his season in early June, with races like the Eclipse, the Sussex Stakes, the International Stakes, the QEII and, above all, a Breeders' Cup in the heart of the Kentucky Bluegrass still to come? What an advertisement for a young stallion that could prove to be.

George Washington's abundant attitude will be a consideration too, and it will be fascinating to observe and speculate how a master horseman like O'Brien will go about preparing the colt's mind as well as his body. Winning the Guineas will probably prove to have been the easy part.

Sir Percy, who finished two-and-a-half lengths second to George Washington, was reported to be "a bit tired" by Marcus Tregoning yesterday, and is now likely to head straight to the Derby. He is top-priced at 6-1 with Ladbrokes, one point behind Visindar, a general 5-1 chance.