John Aglionby on the Crisis in Thailand

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is spending tonight in what his staff are describing as "one of the most dangerous places in Thailand", the Krong Pinang district of the Yala province. His aim is to learn first-hand more about what happened on April 28 when security forces killed 108 mostly young men - the vast majority of whom were armed with little more than machetes - when they attacked a series of security posts in the south of the country and what precipitated the carnage.

Based on his pronouncements of the last week, however, it seems the populist Mr Thaksin, does not want to learn the full truth - the full extent of the disillusionment that many people feel towards Bangkok in the four provinces with large Muslim populations: Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat and Songkhla.

After months of denying it existed, on Saturday Mr Thaksin finally admitted in his weekly radio address that he is facing a separatist insurgency in the south. But he declined to accept it is more than a handful of operatives who coerce or bribe the region's discontented youths into acting at their behest.

The rest of the region's woes - which have left dozens of people killed this year - he ascribes to banditry, smuggling gangs and corrupt politicians, but without offering much concrete proof. This trust-me-I-know-what-I'm-doing approach is not endearing him to the locals.

As a member of Yala's Islamic Council, Abdullah Maejaesae, said: "We welcome the prime minister's visit but we do not know if that can help the shattered morale of the people. The sense of mistrust still prevails. The villagers are more scared of authorities than of thieves."

Such fear is perpetuated by other arrows in Mr Thaksin's quiver - such as his seemingly unquestioning support for the military and police. In his radio address he said that the level of force used on April 28 was appropriate, despite the gross disparity in weaponry and the apparent massacre of 32 young men at a mosque. "The security forces could not sit idle and wait for the attackers to kill them," he said.

Under intense pressure the government has formed a commission of inquiry to probe what happened. The members - two retired diplomats, two former national security bureaucrats, a Muslim social leader and a Muslim political scientist - have been promised full cooperation from the security forces but it remains to be seen whether they will get it.

Last year the police, in particular, were conspicuously obstructive when attempts were made to probe why it was necessary to kill several thousand alleged drug dealers in Mr Thaksin's war on methamphetamines.

Undermining the prime minister's position have been his own subordinates, who say they are up against an Islamic separatist movement with elements that have undergone foreign training. These insurgents, officials say, could easily find recruits to expand their operations to other parts of the country in the form of terrorist attacks if the perception continues that the government's stick is continuing to dominate its carrots.

If that were to happen, Thailand's multi-billion-pound tourist industry would immediately be put in grave peril. After the October 2002 bombing in Bali, Indonesia's tourism industry took a massive hit. It would require something only a fraction of the size of the Bali blasts to drive the tourists off Thailand's beaches.

Currently still working against this scenario is the widespread belief that, despite a few indications to the contrary, Jemaah Islamiyah, the regional terrorist group with close links to al-Qaida, is not yet active in the southern provinces. This is in spite of the arrest in Thailand last August of the movement's operations chief, Hambali.

The April 28 attacks bore none of the Jemaah Islamiyah hallmarks - small teams, working secretly and with meticulous preparation that leaves little to chance - and appeared more as a series of assaults by amateur groups united by religion but motivated by local issues.

That does not mean the circumstances cannot change. Commentators in the Thai media have been warning that unless the government shows a tangible commitment to improving people's welfare in the four southern provinces, foreign terrorists might well move in, sensing a hitherto unexploitable opportunity.

Then all bets would be off. At present the situation is still retrievable for Mr Thaksin, who undoubtedly has at least one eye on the election that is less than a year away.

The unknown question is whether the former policeman-turned-telecoms tycoon is willing to cast off his gunslinging chief executive approach to succeed.