HORSE RACING: Kentucky Derby Preview

By Chrys Kefalas CPKSports Editor-in-Chief

It will be a Kentucky Derby devoid of trainer D. Wayne Lukas for the first time since 1980, but that doesn’t mean this year’s Derby is lacking in star power.

Trainer Bob Baffert sends favorite Point Given and Congaree, most recently the winner of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, to the gate for the 127th running of the Kentucky Derby. Joining them will be Godolphin Racing’s Express Tour, Blue Grass Stakes winner Millennium Wind, Florida Derby winner Monarchos, Rick Pitino’s AP Valentine, Songandaprayer, Balto Star, and a host of others hoping to claim the Roses.

CPKSports.com presents the field for this Saturday’s race (5:00 p.m. EST on NBC) and reviews the chances of the 3-year-olds’ possible Derby success (Odds provided by Churchill Downs).

Point Given (2-1): A brilliant workout on Monday teamed with a sensational performance in his last two races makes Point Given the odds on favorite come Saturday. At the San Felipe Stakes, he won easily by 2 1/4 lengths. And in his last start, Point Given stormed home 5 1/2 lengths best in the Santa Anita Derby. In his first workout at Churchill Downs, Point Given flew through a five-furlong drill that official clockers timed in 58.20 seconds. “He felt like a freight train,” said exercise rider Dana Barnes. The last time a horse was referred to as a vehicle that travels on train tracks? Secretariat.

“If you wanted to build the perfect Derby horse - in terms of size, stamina, and power, handling a mile and a quarter, and being quick and fast - it would be him,” Baffert said. “He’s made the right way.”

Read More On Point Given

Congaree (9-2): The likely second choice Saturday, Congaree seems to be peaking at the right time. The colt ran five furlongs in 47.80 seconds on Monday. The son of Arazi dominated in the Wood Memorial and continues to improve start after start. Though, no one, including trainer Bob Baffert, knows if he can run the mile and a quarter without any problem. Of course he’s unbeaten as a 3-year-old, where his smallest margin has been five lengths. Should run strong.

Millennium Wind (8-1): An impressive margin of victory in the Blue Grass Stakes brings Millennium Wind to Churchill Downs on a winning note. Ridden by Laffit Pincay Jr., Millennium drew off to win by 5 1/4 lengths over Songandaprayer, as fourth choice in a field of seven. Millennium Wind is out of Bali Babe, making him a half-brother to Charismatic, winner of the 1999 Derby and Preakness. He has won three of five starts, with his lone previous stakes victory coming in the Jan. 21 Santa Catalina at Santa Anita.

Balto Star (10-1): In order for Balto Star to win, he must not get pressed into setting a fast pace and dueling it out early with either Keats or Congaree. In his last start, Balto Star cruised to an unchallenged 4 1/2-length victory in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn raising his career earnings to $720,190. Though, it seems difficult to suggest that he will wire this crew.

Monarchos (8-1): Too dangerous to overlook, especially since seven of the last nine Derby winners didn’t win their final prep. Before falling to Congaree in the Wood, Monarchos was the likely second choice behind Point Given. Despite losing his last time out, Monarchos was closing intently on Congaree in a shorter race and may find that the Kentucky Derby presents the perfect distance and conditions for victory. Monarchos worked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 last Friday for his final major work. The last Derby winner not to have worked Derby week was Bold Forbes in 1976. Bold Forbes had won the Wood Memorial when it was run two weeks before the Derby.

Monarchos has won three in six career starts including the Florida Derby. He has finished out of the money only once.

Dollar Bill (8-1): Dollar Bill did not respond to the speed-favoring track of Keeneland in the Blue Grass and, thus, should be a fresh horse come Derby day. Jockey Pat Day will ride Dollar Bill and seems pleased with his entry. “He has wonderful composure and nothing bothers him,” Day said. “He responds well under pressure. In the Louisiana Derby (after clipping heels) he recovered and tried to get back in the race, and he has lots of stamina and will run all day. There are plenty of things in his favor that will help Saturday afternoon.” One thing may be that one of the best big race jockeys in the sport’s history rides him and “when it doubt bet on Pat Day.”

He worked five furlongs in 1:00 on Sunday.

Express Tour (18-1): Two prep races in the United Arab Emirates against weak competition do not bode well for the horse with the most career earnings in the race ($1.6 million). This doesn’t either: Six furlongs in 1:12 1/5 at Churchill Downs. Would be a major surprise if he wins.

Songandaprayer (25-1): The $1-million yearling Songandaprayer is a winner of three of six lifetime starts with a bankroll that reads $369,480. His most recent outing was a second-place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. The distance of the race, however, appears too long as he normally tires around 9-10 furlong mark.

AP Valentine (15-1): Trained by Nick Zito, the horse has been plagued by an inconsistent year. Since winning the Champagne Stakes last fall as a 2-year-old, AP Valentine has struggled. His last start produced a disappointing fifth-place finish in Blue Grass Stakes. On Monday, he displayed his speed in a five-furlong workout in :59 flat at Churchill Downs. Zito has told reporters that the horse has responded nicely to the track but nothing from his last few races indicates the horse is ready to emerge come Derby day.

Thunder Blitz (35-1): The son of Holy Bull continues to show improvement each time out. In order to win the Kentucky Derby he will have to make a major step up. His Sunday morning drill of :59 4/5 for trainer Joe Orseno offers some hope.

Keats (30-1): Not a confirmed entry for the Derby, Keats could be one of a couple speed horses in the race. He won the Coolmore Lexington Stakes against a weak field last time out and appears overmatched unless the rest of the pack allows him to set a slow pace and take it wire to wire. Not likely.

Invisible Ink (40-1): How many horses come back from an illness that almost led to their death? Just a year ago, Invisible Ink was so ill that the insurance company that carried a $200,000 policy on the horse gave owner John Fort permission to euthanize him. Call it miraculous and reason enough to not rule him out. After winning two allowance races at Gulfstream, Invisible Ink finished third in the Florida Derby despite being blocked from the three-eighths pole to the eighth pole. His disappointing fourth place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes was more a function of poor trainer to jockey instruction than the horse’s talent. Trainer Todd Pletcher told jockey Jorge Chavez to place Invisible Ink closer to the pace than he prefers and the horse subsequently did not run “his race.” Since arriving at Churchill, however, Invisible Ink has trained extremely well including a five-furlong move in 59.80 on Sunday and might be a perfect “Bud Long Shot” bet.

Fifty Stars (35-1): A late threat,the son of Quiet American, a $70,000 Keeneland September yearling, was runner-up to Percy Hope in the Lone Star Derby in his most recent effort April 7. If there is a hot pace, which seems likely with Congaree and Balto Star, he could pack a powerful late punch and pull the upset.

Jamaican Rum (30-1): Closed on a muddy track to finish second in the Arkansas Derby must have some major luck on Saturday to do better.

Startac (30-1): Owned by the Allen Paulson Living Trust, Startac has thrived on the turf. One problem: The Kentucky Derby is on a dirt track. On Sunday, he worked six furlongs in 1:14 4/5 at Hollywood Park and will arrive to Churchill on Tuesday. Not a shot.

Talk Is Money (50-1):Two-time Derby winner Jerry Bailey will ride Talk Is Money and that’s about it for the second place finisher in the Tesio Stakes. Doesn’t belong in this race.

Arctic Boy (50-1): Read the last comment above, especially after an 11th place finish in the Arkansas Derby.

Editor’s Trifecta:

1. Point Given

2. Monarchos

3. Dollar Bill

Associate Editor Chris Dachille’s Trifecta:

1. Point Given

2. Balto Star

3. Songandaprayer

CPKSports.com Long shot: Invisible Ink

Article provided courtesy of CPKSports