Southern Africa Faces Famine

Some 10 million people in four African countries are at risk of starvation in the worst food shortages in a decade, say the UN's World Food Programme and the Food and Agriculture Organisation.

The two bodies say that at least 4m tonnes of food will need to be imported over the next year for Malawi, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Swaziland.

"In a worst case scenario, 11-12 million people won't have adequate food," said James Morris, head of the UN World Food Programme (WFP).

In a joint statement from London, the two agencies said that there would be "grave food shortages" as early as next month, which would continue up to the next main harvest in April 2003.

"The picture will become even bleaker when reports on Zambia and some parts of Mozambique are added to the assessment of an already critical humanitarian situation," the statement said.

More than 10,000 Malawians are believed to have already died of hunger-related diseases in the past six months following poor maize harvests caused by drought and floods. Elsewhere in the region, economic crises and disruption of farming have slashed food output.

The WFP says it is already feeding 2.6 million people in Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe, and many charities have begun to import food. However, it is expected that a minimum of 4m tonnes of food will have to be imported to meet needs. More than 1m tonnes is needed immediately, says the UN.

Reports from Malawi, where the crisis is thought to be deepest, suggest that large numbers of families are already under severe stress.

"We are concerned that the situation may deteriorate substantially and quickly," said Mary Corbett, a nutritionist with the charity Concern which has been conducting surveys.

"The situation appears pretty grim unless food arrives in time and is well targeted. There is a limited window of opportunity for getting food into the country by the end of July or early August. Realistically, it will be surprising if it arrives in time," Ms Corbett said.

Early WFP assessments have suggested that 19% of Malawi's population of 11.5 million people will need food aid by the beginning of September, rising to 28% by December.

Until now few countries have responded with pledges.

Mr Morris said that the WFP was planning to appeal to governments and he estimated that the aid operation for southern Africa could cost nearly £300m.

Other agencies have put the cost of aid at £1.25bn.