It's the stupid economy, stupid

One of my newest friends, a distinguished German political commentator of somewhat gloomy mien, was holding forth in the hotel bar with accustomed moroseness the other day. He didn't like the new "economisation" of everything, every policy, every story, every slice of life. He didn't like its big brother, globalisation, or the bitter end of the German miracle. He didn't like counting the euros as though they were gods. No odes to joy. His audience - a Frenchman, an American and a Swede - nodded sagely. And I grew thoughtful.

Britain, after all, has been in the grip of economisation for as long as most of us can recall. Remember Labour tumbling out of office because a jumbo jet order made the balance of payments look sick? Remember Harold Wilson fidgeting on about the pound in your pocket? Remember Norman Lamont going splat overnight? It's always been the economy, stupid, where we're concerned (except when it's Iraq). We pop economic theorisings like Elvis Presley popped pills. Counting the cost is second nature.

Yet there, around this barroom table, we Brits were relatively alone. The German pundit had grown up on growth and optimism and seldom stopping to look at the bill. The Frenchman would rather change governments than lifestyles. Even the American, a college professor, hadn't worried too much about money until Washington turned off the tap. But now came the day of reckoning. They were shocked and resentful. Now only the global rules of inflation, interest rates, money supply and the rest applied.

And when my German friend saw this as the end of politics, the end of ideas, ideology or involvement, he was suddenly on to something. The new checklist for cub reporters: who, where, when and how much will it cost? For few modern stories, in their spinning, escape that fate.

Take the past few days. Mums are opting for caesarean sections. What's the issue there? Caesareans come more expensive when push comes to shove, and therefore more of a drain on scarce NHS resources. Push, therefore, soon turns to pay up or shove off. Equally, when binge-drinkers cause mayhem on Saturday night, the triggers for action inevitably involve policing costs and insurance damage (plus that NHS resource chestnut again). Are you, or your kids, a bit porky? Then obesity comes with a terrible NHS bill attached. Indeed, ill health itself is a sore drain on the NHS. We can't afford the Olympics because we can't afford to build a necessary train link. We can't afford trains in general. And so it goes on, right up the political scale.

Why did we join Europe in the first place? Because Ted Heath thought it would make us richer. Why does even Michael Howard want to stay in (on his own terms)? Because he agrees. What will next year's great debate be about? Don't talk peace or brotherhood or understanding. Talk jobs and market forces and getting to the heart of the trough.

What, meanwhile, is this year's not-so-great debate? Eastern Europeans - welcome to the Dublin club, boys! Shut up, stand still and smile - coming here to claim our benefits and live in our subsidised housing, while getting treated for free in Chestnut Valley NHS trust beds. How do we counter that? With 500,000 job vacancies to fill and new blood for our fabled economy. With a long speech from Tony Blair. Migration, you see, is either good or bad; but always for the economy. People - mere humanity - trail in far behind.

Once upon a time, perhaps, this wasn't too fatal, not the end of debate and constructive thought. If you didn't like what the heirs of Keynes were telling you, there was always Milton Friedman across the road. Call Richard Layard or Patrick Minford. Print money then throw it to the winds. Try incomes policy and see whether the unions would wear it. Economics was so much more interesting then, because its whole import changed when you changed economists. There were no laws to be obeyed, no tablets stuffed up jumpers. Find a bright idea and you could probably find a bright economist to sanctify it.

Alas, no longer. Apparently - the Gordon Brown memorial lecture - there's only one way to run a successful economy now, only one book of golden rules. The independent Bank of England delivers those tablets of wisdom, then the laws of flexibility apply. Europe, America? We're all in the same narrow boat of limited manoeuvre. Don't rock it or you rock your world.

And from that dim and dismal perception - one truth, one way, one definition of obedience and retribution - flows the condition that kills democratic enthusiasm and depresses Germans in hotel bars. Somehow, the cake in this oven always seems heavy and conditional: eat too much and you'll go hungry tomorrow; give none to your neighbours or you could starve. These economics have all the weight of simple science. Light the blue touchpaper and retire prematurely.

So we grow mean and querulous. Asylum seekers are robbing our purses. Why - telling phraseology - most of them are "economic migrants" anyway! So there is nothing we can do, no initiative we can unilaterally pursue (unless it happens to concern making war, in which case no iron laws function). We voters can't make a difference, in which case we might as well go back to sleep.

Blair, it's said, is bent on writing a "radical, ground-breaking manifesto" to reinvigorate politics and stamp his authority on a third term. Well, maybe. But "radical", for the moment, can't mean expensive or imaginative. Radical means costed, budgeted, waste-proof and tax-rise-proof. Radical means words, because they're cheap, not action. Try a postal vote via the Royal Mail instead. It's always the stupid economy, stupid.