Fantasy Sports: Draft day fantasy effects

By Mike Guenther Sports Central Columnist

That's right, folks. The unofficial start of summer, Memorial Day Weekend, is still about four weeks away. But it's never too early to start analyzing the 2004 fantasy football season.

Several teams did well in last weekend's NFL draft in New York City. The Lions, Bengals, and Vikings were among many of the winners who significantly improved their teams.

With the NFL draft still fresh in our memories, let's look at five situations for fantasy gurus to monitor through mini-camps in the near future and training camps that begin in mid-to-late July. There is no doubt that several early round selections in last week's draft will affect the fantasy football landscape in the 2004 season in one way or another.

QB Joey Harrington, Detroit

Harrington has definitely struggled in his first two seasons at the helm for the Lions. However, fault does not rest entirely on the former Oregon Duck signal-caller. Harrington has had below-average targets (Bill Schroeder, Az Hakim, Mikhael Ricks) for the most part and Charles Rogers was hurt for much of 2003.

Also, the Lions' running game has been non-existent and ranked dead last in the NFL last behind the efforts, or lack thereof, from Shawn Bryson, Olandis Gary, Avon Cobourne, and even Artose Pinner.

Matt Millen did a great job of assembling weapons for the Harrington's arsenal in last week's draft. First-round wide receiver selection Roy Williams out of Texas and running back Kevin Jones out of Virginia Tech possess the game-breaking and big-play ability that the Lions need.

During pre-season camps, monitor how Williams and Jones adapt to the Lions' system. Pre-season success could prove to be very beneficial to Joey Harrington's fantasy value this season.

Running Backs, Denver

Everybody who has followed fantasy football has picked up on the fact that Bronco running backs are coveted, as long as Mike Shanahan is still running the team on the field. Former sixth-round selection Terrell Davis was a fantasy stud and even Olandis Gary had a 1,000-yard season in the Mile High City. That should tell you something!

Although the Broncos passed on Oregon State's Steven Jackson in the first-round, which surprised many, they were quick to take Tatum Bell from Oklahoma State in the next round. Bell is more of a shiftier back who put up huge numbers at OSU last season, scoring 16 touchdowns. Bell seems to be a slightly bigger version of second-year Bronco Quentin Griffin, who experienced some success in limited action late last year.

Add free agent signee Garrison Hearst into the mix and a fantasy owner is likely to get confused as to who the main man is behind quarterback Jake Plummer. This is a key position battle to watch in the pre-season.

Hearst is not likely to ever be a full-time back again, but he will see carries. Griffin's durability has yet to be tested at the NFL level. And while Bell may be a touted rookie, he has to face the challenges of learning a new system in a much faster environment between the lines on Sundays. Monitor and proceed with caution. Whoever is the primary ball carrier could be a hidden gem come September, although all three could be worthy of roster spots.

QB Drew Bledsoe, Buffalo

Honestly, things could not get any worse for Bledsoe and the Bills' passing attack than they were in 2003. Peerless Price's loss proved to be more than the Bills' organization had expected, especially since Josh Reed did not take over the No. 2 receiver spot as many had hoped and thought that he would. Journeyman Bobby Shaw actually proved to be a more valuable fantasy receiver!

Many thought that selecting Wisconsin receiver Lee Evans in the first round at No. 13 overall was a bit of a stretch for Buffalo. The critics point to Evan's knee injury that forced him to miss the 2002 season as a concern, although he played completely healthy during 2003 and ran impressive 40-yard times at the NFL Scouting Combine, in the 4.3-4.4 second range.

Evans' speed and leaping ability should help the Bills' downfield passing game, thus opening up underneath opportunities for Josh Reed and Eric Moulds, who isn't the deep threat that he used to be.

What does this mean for Drew Bledsoe? Well, expect a slight improvement in his fantasy numbers, but don't count on a miracle. He will be a good backup to have on your roster, but try to avoid going into the season with Bledsoe as your starter. After all, Evans should provide help to the entire Bills' offense, but he is unproven. Watch his evolvement in the pre-season.

WR Amani Toomer/Ike Hilliard, New York Giants

With Kerry Collins heading out of the Big Apple, the job is Eli Manning's to take and run with ... with a few stumbles expected along the way. Toomer disappointed his fantasy owners somewhat last season, while Hilliard performed well, considering his role as a No. 2 receiver for the Giants. He was useful in deeper leagues.

Both players' values should be skewed back a notch going into the 2004 season. Young Eli will have an entire system to pick up on, not to mention playing in the world's media capital as added pressure. It is apparent that Manning has a strong sense for the game, but 2004 will be a period of adjustment as he adapts to the increased speed of the pro game.

Toomer and Hilliard should still be decent fantasy receiver options this year, but don't go crazy over them. Watch their pre-season performances to see how Manning picks up on the pro game, and also to analyze the receiver-quarterback relationship that he, Toomer, and Hilliard develop. Who knows, this situation might take off from the first snap ... but I wouldn't bet on it.

QB Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay

The first thing that happened this offseason that helped Johnson was the trade of Keyshawn Johnson to Dallas for veteran speedster Joey Galloway. Galloway can still stretch the field when healthy and Johnson's attitude was becoming a distraction and sore spot for many Buccaneer players, coaches, and fans. Good move.

Another good move on draft day was selecting LSU wide receiver Michael Clayton in the first-round. Although Clayton brings a somewhat frail frame to the NFL (6-4, 190), his height will give him an advantage in jump ball situations, much like the same advantage that Keyshawn enjoyed.

Newcomer Galloway and rookie Clayton will team with Keenan McCardell to provide a diverse and dangerous group of receivers in Tampa Bay. Galloway's health at this point of his career is a concern, but his deep-threat abilities will open up underneath targets for Brad Johnson.

Johnson had a very productive fantasy season in 2003. Look for his 2004 production to come close, if not mirror his 2003 numbers. Watch how he and his corps of receivers gel during the pre-season. If all looks well, Johnson could be a great starter for your fantasy squad that falls into the middle rounds on draft day.

Article courtesy of Sports Central.