Pakistan on Course to Regain Place in the Club

Pakistan is expecting to be readmitted to the Commonwealth at a meeting beginning in London today after being expelled in 1999 when the current president, Pervez Musharraf, overthrew the democratic government in an army coup.

The US has been pressing the Commonwealth to allow Pakistan back in. Washington wants to shore up General Musharraf and reward him for his support against the Taliban in the war in Afghanistan.

Both Britain and Australia have been lobbying the Commonwealth ministerial action group (CMAG), which will make the decision, to lift the ban.

CMAG is made up of Canada, India, Nigeria, the Bahamas, Sri Lanka, Lesotho, Samoa, Tanzania and Malta - but not Britain or Australia.

Western diplomats predict that Pakistan will be allowed back in, in spite of serious questions about Gen Musharraf's commitment to the full restoration of democracy.

One said: "Readmission is not a foregone conclusion but we think it will happen."

An informal agreement was reached six weeks ago guaranteeing Pakistan's re-entry but several snags have arisen since then. Canada asked the Commonwealth secretary, Don McKinnon, to seek clarification after Gen Musharraf, in an interview with the BBC, refused to commit himself to giving up wearing a military uniform by the end of the year, as he had promised.

The Pakistani government was forced to issue an assurance that the president would stand down as the army chief-of-staff by the end of the year, stop wearing a uniform and become a fully-fledged civilian politician.

Canada is also concerned about the deportation of the exiled opposition leader, Shahbaz Sharif, soon after he arrived in Lahore earlier this month.

The Canadian high commission said yesterday it expected a "full and frank discussion on this issue", and that "while Canada appreciates the progress that has taken place in Pakistan, we have to wait for the meeting to hear other views".

Several of the African countries on CMAG are expected to challenge what they see as hypocrisy in the differing treatment of Pakistan and Zimbabwe, which last year left the Commonwealth after punitive action was taken.

In spite of these reservations the balance has shifted in Pakistan's favour and its position is stronger than it was at the last Commonwealth meeting at Abuja in Nigeria in December.

The Foreign Office view is that the country has met all the requirements set out by the Commonwealth.

Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan's high commissioner in London, told Reuters in an interview this week that if issues such as Mr Sharif's deportation were raised it would amount to "moving the goalposts".

Pakistan is banned from attending all Commonwealth committees, which in effect amounts to expulsion.

Crucially for Islamabad India, a member of CMAG that last year opposed its readmission, is planning to adopt a neutral position today as part of its rapprochement with Pakistan.

Although the Commonwealth has relatively little power, readmittance would provide Gen Musharraf with another piece of the international legitimacy he craves.

Amnesty International said yesterday it did not comment on democracy but that Pakistan's human rights' record was "pretty dire". There was increasing violence against women and religious minorities were being targeted.