Prepare for Attack, Cheney Tells Us

The American vice-president, Dick Cheney, warned yesterday that a new terrorist attack on the United States was "almost certain" amid reports that US intelligence had intercepted al-Qaida communications about a plan involving mass casualties.

However, despite the reported upsurge in messages between suspected followers of Osama bin Laden, the FBI and CIA have no idea of where or when the next attack will happen, nor what form it will take.

"In my opinion the prospects of a future attack against the US are almost certain. It's not a matter of if, but when," Mr Cheney said. "It could happen tomorrow, it could happen next week, it could happen next year. They will keep trying and we have to be prepared."

Mr Cheney acknowledged past failures in responding to signs of terrorism, but said he did not know if the September 11 attacks could have been prevented "even if we had all those pieces together".

"You try to read the tea leaves, you look for pieces of evidence, but you never get the complete picture," he told NBC's Meet the Press.

The CIA and the FBI, under fire for missing clues about al-Qaida's planning for September 11, are scrambling to decipher the intercepts which, according to the New York Times, indicate preparations for an operation on the scale of the devastating attacks on New York and Washington.

The communications, mostly on the internet, do not specifically mention weapons of mass destruction.

The lack of detail highlights the problems faced by US intelligence in combating al-Qaida's loose cell-like network. Even after US forces unearthed piles of documents in Afghanistan and detained dozens of members, most of the organisation's leaders remain at large and there are still thought to be one or more "sleeper" cells within the US.

In an attempt to remedy the shortcomings in intelligence-gathering, the CIA and FBI now share information on a daily basis. The FBI also participates in a daily intelligence briefing in the White House.

Both agencies are struggling to detect a pattern in the "chatter" of al-Qaida communications like the one critics say should have been spotted in the months before September 11, when signs that the organisation might be considering using aircraft as a weapon went unheeded.

More details emerged yesterday of a key document in the inquiry into the intelligence failure, a memo sent to FBI headquarters by a respected agent in Arizona in July, recommending an investigation into the activities of Middle Eastern student pilots in US flying schools.

According to the Washington Post, Kenneth Williams' report said that one suspect had a picture of Bin Laden on his wall and another had called a man possibly linked to an al-Qaida associate. The memo was ignored by his superiors.

The mood of anxiety was heightened over the weekend by the appearance of a previously unseen Bin Laden video.

Imran Khan, a journalist for the Birmingham-based Islamic New Agency, which released the video, said the 100-second segment had been supplied by a Pakistani intelligence officer who claimed it had been filmed two months ago in the Afghan border town of Spin Boldak. But Mr Khan said there was no conclusive proof of the date.