Amateurs Poised for Power in the Netherlands

The people of the Netherlands have started voting today, in a general election that could put a leaderless, untested group of political amateurs into a key position in the next coalition government.

Following the murder of populist rightwing politician Pim Fortuyn last week, the political scene has become so confused that some analysts predict an unstable coalition which may collapse within 18 months.

Th election is for the 150-seat second chamber, the policy-making body of the Dutch parliament. About 12 million people are eligible to vote, and historically the turnout is 73% to 80%. Voting began at some 10,000 polling stations at 6.30 BST this morning and goes on until 8pm.

Of the 15 parties in the race, four are major players. They almost certainly will determine the next government in coalition bargaining that could take weeks, and perhaps months.

After eight years of a centre-left alliance under the prime minister, Wim Kok, the only certainty in today's vote is a swing to the right, because all except Mr Kok's Labour party are right of centre.

The joker of the four is Pim Fortuyn's List, a collection of political newcomers who were hand-picked by Mr Fortuyn just three months ago. The other three parties are the Christian Democrats - who were part of every post-war government until 1994 - the Labour party and the Liberal party, the second major party in the outgoing coalition.

An exit poll of about 40,000 voters will be released moments after the polls close on the state-financed NOS television station, and enough actual results should be available within three hours to indicate the final outcome. Official results will be released on May 21.

A poll released just a few hours before the voting began gave a clear lead to the Christian Democrats, predicting 35 seats. But it said the other three parties were clustered between 24 and 26 seats.

That means either three of the four top parties must band together, or - even more difficult - there could be a four- or five-party coalition with smaller parties.

Mr Fortuyn, who was shot dead last week, attracted a huge following with his brash but ill-defined policies. He called for a halt to further immigration, a crackdown on crime and for throwing out what he called the entrenched political elite. He appealed to people unhappy with what they viewed as a distant, unresponsive, exclusive club of professional politicians.

But the candidates on Pim Fortuyn's List form a disparate group with little in common other than loyalty to their leader, and some analysts predict the party will splinter within a few weeks or months.

Galen Irwin, a political scientist at Leiden University, said he expected Mr Fortuyn's followers to "fall apart into different groups. If that happens, the coalition will have internal difficulties. You can count on new elections within a year or 18 months."

Friends said Mr Fortuyn himself was unhappy with the quality of his list of candidates. Following his death, the party put off choosing a new leader until after the election.

Yesterday the newly appointed party chairman announced his resignation, after blaming the government for creating an atmosphere of hatred that led to Mr Fortuyn's death.

The front-runner for prime minister is Jan Peter Balkenende, a 46-year-old former professor of Christian philosophy who became leader of the Christian Democrats last October. Mr Balkenende joined politics just four years ago, and has never held a position of national leadership.

"It is just a score so far," Balkenende said after the latest poll. "Let's first see what the voter has to say."

Another potential leader is Hans Dijkstal, 59, the veteran head of the Liberal party which has served as a junior partner in coalitions led by Labour and the Christian Democrats.

Ad Melkert, Mr Kok's chosen successor in the Labour party, is an outsider in the premiership race, and is under pressure to resign as party leader. Mr Melkert, described as a good leader with a poor image, is partially blamed for the party's precipitous plunge in the pre-election polls which predict a nearly 50% loss of seats.

Some analysts say that if the new coalition looks too shaky, none of the established party leaders may accept the job of prime minister, preferring instead to bring in an outsider or a retired veteran who can command respect from various groups.