Deadly shocks a fact of life for the poorest

Thirteen earthquakes in Turkey in the past 1,700 years have each claimed more than 10,000 lives. The relatively mild tremor that buried children under the rubble of a village 430 miles (690 km) east of Ankara yesterday was a reminder that earthquakes in Turkey are a fact of life and, all too often, bring death.

Experts put the risk of a destructive earthquake in Istanbul at 50-50 within 20 years. Squeezed between the landmasses of Arabia and Eurasia, Turkey is earthquake country. When continents collide, something has to give. Turkey is being torn apart along a fissure known as the north Anatolian fault, very much like the San Andreas fault in California. The landmass south of the Anatolian fault is moving westward at 3cm a year relative to the northern landmass. But along the fault itself, the movement is haphazard. Rocks lock together, deform and then snap past each other at colossal accelerations. Energies greater than thermonuclear warhead explosions send waves racing across the landscape.

In countries with strict building codes - Japan, California, New Zealand - people have learned to live with such hazards. But in Turkey, again and again, structures have collapsed, claiming the lives of the poorest.

"Why are we still seeing school buildings collapse and kill children?" said Maureen Fordham, of the University of Northumbria and co-founder of Radix, an internet forum for disaster engineers, scientists, and activists. "Thank God it wasn't Istanbul. What level of devastation will we see if the expected earthquake hits there? When will the lessons be learned and, more importantly, acted upon?"

In California, a seismic alert system was under consideration that could give 40 seconds' notice of the shock to come. Research published in Science today confirms that 40 seconds would be enough to shut down gas and electricity supplies, divert aircraft, stop trains and give people vital moments to evacuate buildings or at least dive for cover.

Such warning depends on a communication network linked to continuously monitored evidence from 155 seismic stations in southern California. In poorer nations, the first signs of earthquake all too often are the collapsing walls and crumbling roofs that then become the gravestones for the victims underneath.