Madrid must change tactics on Rock

Spain's aim of full sovereignty is wrecking the prospect of a Gibraltar deal.

Nobody likes losing a vote. But losing by 12,138 to 44, the last scoreline when Gibraltarians were asked if they wanted to join Spain in 1966, is even worse. Jack Straw has finally realised that his co-sovereignty proposals would be similarly hammered at a vote.

His attempt to sort out a 300-year-old problem in a few months of talks with Spain is beginning to look like hubris.

That is why, as he prepares to brave the wrath of the Gibraltarians by visiting them this week while negotiating to hand over half of the Rock's sovereignty to Spain, he is also planning not to ask them their opinion for a very long time.

As the Guardian reveals today, the referendum that Gibraltar has been promised will not happen soon. It may take months, perhaps years.

But what will happen in the meantime? The deal that looked so secure a few days ago is in danger of unravelling. Europe minister Peter Hain has angered Spain by demanding a "definitive" deal, while the Spanish prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar, has caused fury in Britain by telling the Guardian Spain will never stop aspiring to full sovereignty.

Are the negotiators talking the same language? Or is this just last-minute brinkmanship, a sign that the deal is almost ready to go, perhaps when Tony Blair and Mr Aznar meet in London on May 20?

Mr Aznar's words must have seemed to him a reasonable statement of a long-held policy. They were also a sign of how blind Spain is to the headache the Gibraltar deal causes the Blair government.

There are few Spanish votes to be won or lost on Gibraltar . A co-sovereignty deal that leaves the door open for absolute sovereignty can, anyway, be presented as a half-step towards Spain's historic aim. Mr Aznar, if he sticks to that line, is playing a no-risk game.

Gibraltarians find it hard to accept, but few Britons care about the Rock either. Some actively detest it, denouncing its phoney Britishness. But in Westminster, and in British newspapers, Gibraltar matters, because there are principles at stake. Nobody wants them forced against their wishes into Spanish hands. Sharing sovereignty, especially while giving them a large dose of self-government, seems reasonable to many. Sharing for a bit, and then dumping them on Spain, does not.

If politicians in the UK were surprised by Mr Aznar's insistence on clinging to the aim of absolute sovereignty, it is because British ministers have never spelt out clearly what Spain's "red lines" are. Either that, or they think Tony Blair might change Mr Aznar's mind.

Britain has insisted that any deal will not be implemented until backed by Gibraltar in a referendum. That is its defence against "sell-out" claims.

Diplomats complain that Britain on its own cannot woo Gibraltarians. It needs Spain to help. But instead of brandishing carrots, Madrid keeps its hand on the stick, threatening further isolation of Gibraltar within the EU.

The message Gibraltarians hear is: "Vote Yes, or else". That just makes them dig their heels in further.

A deal is almost ready. But there are great empty spaces indicating unresolved areas in crucial parts of the text. One of those deals with Spain's aspiration to full sovereignty. Spaniards are tough negotiators - and the signs are that the blanks will have to be filled to Mr Aznar's satisfaction.

That will make selling it to the Gibraltarians even harder. That sale may prove impossible, however, if Spain stubbornly refuses to win hearts and minds on the Rock.