Only Gordon Brown Can Win the Fight for Europe

There is no escape. Which ever way he turns, the prime minister faces nothing but intractable trouble. Yesterday it was migration; he was on the back foot again. It was a well-reasoned speech: Britain, he said, will be neither fortress nor soft touch, but welcomes legal migrants as the lifeblood of growth. But forget his plea for this not to become a political issue: asylum and migration are toxicly political. Labour's own polling shows how Europhobia and immigration twist together in a nasty knot. Michael Howard struck home with his accusation of last-minute "panic" measures only days before the 10 new states join the EU.

There is no good news anywhere on the horizon. Not in Iraq, America or Europe. Not even in figures showing success at home, while the public refuses to believe them. Disaster beckons in the June elections. What has changed now is that when Blair addresses one of the wicked issues, he begins to seem more like part of the problem than the solution. In deep water up to his neck, the undertow grows ever stronger as unexpected ministers start to say his time is almost up. Speculation about the coming Brown era is everywhere: those who can are hastily building bridges to it, wondering if it may now come sooner, rather than later.

The pro-Europeans were Blair's closest cadre: even as he marched in the opposite direction, they knew his genuine conviction on pushing Britain once and for all to the heart of Europe. They trembled at what his Iraq war did to that European future, but still kept the faith. They hoped until recently for a Euro referendum quite soon after the election. Now, instead, they risk referendum defeat over simply standing still. Their fury at the way the referendum decision happened was not a denial that a referendum had by now become unavoidable: it was anger at all the European chances Blair missed over the years. The no-show of the promised Euro road shows was only emblematic.

May 1 should be a day for rejoicing. History will see the accession of the 10 nations as the final purging of Europe's 20th century horrors - but not in Little England where the occasional gypsy begging with a drugged baby is quite enough to persuade people that accession is just another plot to let foreigners from the east invade our shores. The No campaign blends migration and Europe into a strong emetic for spewing out the constitution.

Instead of celebrating May 1, Europhiles are to be heard whispering wickedly that perhaps the only hope now is that the new European constitution won't be agreed after all in June. In theory, now that Spain and Poland have withdrawn their objections to the voting system, there is little left to argue over. But what if it would secretly suit a growing number of countries to delay it? Other countries fear their referendums: Denmark and Ireland must have them; others may be forced. Perhaps, for once, it won't be the bloody-minded Brits who blow it apart, whisper the Euro hopefuls?

Jacques Chirac may have other plans. There is pressure in France for a referendum - but the last one, on Maastricht, was only won by a hair's breadth. Why would the increasingly unpopular Chirac give voters a chance to wallop him if he can find ways to delay the constitution and avoid it? But he won't want to be seen to do anything so destructive. So he may manoeuvre Britain back into its familiar wrecking role, which is all too easily done. All he need do is to cut up rough over one of Britain's famous red lines, and he can transfer the blame onto Blair. A likely issue is harmonisation of criminal justice procedure: the EU wants the same evidence to be admissable in courts across Europe so terrorists face the same chance of prosecution everywhere. Britain won't have it. Or Chirac might choose the question of qualified majority voting on foreign policy: he wants to grandstand to his own anti-Muslim right wing by refusing to let Turkey begin accession negotiations in December. The devious old twister might try to force Blair to take the rap. Once Britain has drawn up its non-negotiable red lines, it is easily hoist on its own obstinacy. Blair is due at the Elysée on May 9 to celebrate Europe Day, but singing the Ode to Joy alongside Chirac may stick in his throat.

The dirty work done by Jack Straw over the constitution and the referendum will not easily be forgiven by pro-European ministers. What an irony that Blair sacked Robin Cook from the Foreign Office on a last-minute whim in the delusion that Straw would make a better fist of persuading voters over Europe. He forgot to check Straw's true European views.

Straw planted his close ally Gisela Stuart as a British representative on Giscard's constitutional convention. Blair foolishly assumed that because Stuart speaks with a German accent she must be pro- Europe. As it was painstakingly drafted, she went along with it all happily. As the final version emerged, she even praised it as "in the best interests of our citizens" and "an extremely good basis". Her fellow constitution- writers were astounded when later she attacked it in strong Eurosceptic language. She said it was drafted by a "self-selected elite" when in fact it was drafted by MPs from national parliaments like herself. Why did Straw fix this? Easy, one cabinet minister told me: he is angling for a prime place in the next government.

In Britain, Europe is always a weapon for other political ends. The danger is that even the pro-Europeans have too little optimism to win a referendum at the moment. The plaintive article yesterday from Mandelson, Byers and Milburn inadvertently admits as much. They should not need to rally their own party - but they know they must. Few have the heart to devote months of energy to this, when their political enthusiasm is for health, education or social progress.

One reason why Blair might leave the stage would be to let Gordon Brown handle this referendum. However weak his European sentiments, Brown fighting for his own future could be the only way to win it. It will need the relatively undiminished stock of public trust that Blair now lacks.

Some hope the referendum might never happen. They admit it's ignoble, but other countries too might sigh with relief and prefer to fudge for a bit longer and hope for more propitious times. It is a sad irony that a constitution that corrects some of the very things that alienate European voters risks being lost because of that alienation.

It's a bad time to talk up Europe. Chirac is a rogue, Schröder is weak, Berlusconi might face trial if he weren't in office, and Blair abandoned European credibility when he chose the neo-con White House instead. Even strong pro-Europeans admit gloomily that this is not an easy time for the final showdown with British Euroscepticism. But they will fight if they must, backs to the wall.