2004 playoff preview

By Mason Williams Sports Central Columnist

It's April, college basketball finished up another exciting tournament by crowning the University of Connecticut champion, baseball is just getting started, and now it's time for the NBA playoffs to take center stage.

The NBA season started back in late October and the first few months of games prepare teams for the playoff run. Some teams, like the Sacramento Kings, Los Angeles Lakers, and San Antonio Spurs, know that they will be contenders for the title. Other teams, like the Houston Rockets, Miami Heat, and Memphis Grizzlies, surprised their fans and made strong late-season pushes to make the playoff field.

This year, like the past five years, the NBA has been dominated by the strength of the teams in the Western Conference. Sacramento, Minnesota, Los Angeles, and San Antonio are by far the most dominant teams in the league. They are the top four seeds in the Western Conference and each team has a legitimate chance to bring the title home.

Memphis, Dallas, and Houston follow the top four teams in the West closely. Utah, Portland, and Denver are battling for the eighth spot in the playoffs, but no one gives either of these teams any shot at beating the top seed.

ESPN's featured basketball analyst, David Aldridge, recently broke down the playoff teams into two categories, contenders and pretenders. The contenders from the Western Conference, according to Aldridge, are the Kings, the Timberwolves, the Lakers, and the Spurs.

Each of these teams has "a veteran starting/backup point guard and a defensive-minded big-man." "In the playoffs, defensive execution is extremely important because the game becomes more of a halfcourt game," Aldridge said in a recent interview. All of the other teams in the West are pretenders because of their inability to control the defensive end of the court.

It is hard to bet against the top four teams in the West, but even amongst these four superpowers there are two teams that really stand out. The Lakers and the Spurs seem to be the cream of the crop. Los Angeles proved their might by crushing Sacramento and Minnesota by more than 20 points each. Similarly, on April 4, the Spurs humiliated the Lakers at the Staples Center.

Dave Smith, a sports radio host on 1540 The Ticket, is skeptical as to whether or not the Lakers can beat the Spurs in a seven-game series. He cites the Spurs' victory over the Lakers in last year's playoffs. "Tim Duncan dominated Shaq, who calls himself the most dominant ever." However, Smith did state that this Laker team is different from the ailing team the Spurs saw last year.

Each of the top teams has its strengths and weaknesses. Kevin Garnett, a definite MVP candidate, leads Minnesota's balanced attack. According to Aldridge, "K.G., Sam Cassell, and Latrell Sprewell can get 20-25 points on any given night." This makes the Timberwolves offense very formidable.

However, history works against Minnesota. They have been eliminated from the first-round of the playoffs seven straight times and must shake off the fear of losing in the first-round. Also, the Timberwolves' man-to-man defense can be exploited, as evidenced in the brutal loss to the Lakers two weeks ago.

The Kings, although they are in first place overall, seem to be backsliding. Before Chris Webber returned, the Kings were a cohesive unit that was lead by Peja Stojakovic. Webber's return seemed to have upset the balance the Kings had without him. Guard Bobby Jackson has been the Kings' spark off the bench and his recent injury has hurt the Kings.

Sacramento plays the least defensive out of top contenders, and in the playoffs defense is king. The loss of Keon Clark and Jim Jackson to free agency took away two key defensive players and two tough players who provided Sacramento with the bulk of its heart. Look for the Kings to come up short in the playoffs once again.

The Lakers are the mystery of the West. When they signed Karl Malone and Gary Payton the rest of the league was immediately intimidated. Injuries to Malone, Shaq, and Kobe slowed the Lakers during the season, but now the big four are on the floor. If they are healthy, the Lakers must be considered the favorite, but one injury could derail the Laker train.

The most important statistic to remember is that the Lakers are 27-7 when the big four play together. Dave Smith says the most important number is 20. "Anytime Shaq's rebounds and blocks equals 20, the Lakers will win."

San Antonio is the defending champion, but they don't seem to get the respect a champion deserves. Maybe it is the way San Antonio plays. They are not stocked with superstars like the Lakers, and they don't play with as much excitement and flare as the Kings or Timberwolves do. All San Antonio does is win.

Tim Duncan, a perennial MVP candidate, is almost unstoppable in the low-post and he plays big in big games. The Spurs' defense is its calling card. Bruce Bowen, Manu Ginobli, and Robert Horry hound opposing players and force a lot of turnovers.

David Aldridge believes that the key to the Spurs success is center Rasho Nesterovic. Tim Duncan said, "Rasho is our key, when he plays well, we win." The West should once again be a battle between the Spurs and the Lakers.

Meanwhile, the Eastern Conference playoff race gets very little attention because the teams back East are seen a Junior Varsity when compared to the powerhouses of the West. Only four teams, the Indiana Pacers, the Detroit Pistons, the New Jersey Nets, and the Milwaukee Bucks, have winning records. The other 11 teams in the East have losing or .500 records and four of them will make the playoffs.

On the other hand, only four teams in the West have losing records and none of them are going to the playoffs. It seems impossible to imagine a NBA Finals that features a team with record below .500.

The top team in the East is the Indiana Pacers. They have a dominant big-man in Jermaine O'Neal and they play tenacious defensive. The Pacers are physical and tough, but have the tendency have offensive power outages where they fail to score. This could be a problem in the playoffs.

On the positive side, the Pacers have a good record against the Western Conference and they have the size to compete with the powerhouses in the West. Unfortunately, Indiana has difficulty beating the Detroit Pistons who are in their own division.

The New Jersey Nets lead the Atlantic Division, but they are a team heading the wrong direction as the playoffs approach. Two of their star players, Jason Kidd and Kenyon Martin, have been battling injuries, and the Nets are vulnerable without them.

The Nets love to run the fastbreak and that is when their at their best. However, if teams slow the Nets down, their game quickly falls apart. Neither Jason Kidd nor Richard Jefferson has a deadly accurate jump shot and the Nets are not large enough to guard players like Garnett, Duncan, or Shaq. Look for the Nets to lose in the second-round of the playoffs.

The third-place team in the East might actually be the favorite. The Detroit Pistons are a tough team that made a great trade during the season. Bringing in Rasheed Wallace, the former Portland Trailblazer, gave the Pistons a proven inside scoring threat and a strong defensive player. The frontline of Rasheed, Ben Wallace, and Mehmet Okur is the largest in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons also have a solid backcourt in Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton, both can score and play defense.

Defense is what the Pistons are all about. They recently held the Pacers to under 70 points and it is rare for teams to score more than 85 on the Pistons. The Pistons are charging into the playoffs and they look ready to be the Eastern Conference champions.

The great thing about the Eastern Conference is the fact that there will likely be an upset in the first-round. The Miami Heat are playing good basketball and have the talent to pull off an upset. Similarly, the New Orleans Hornets are a good team that has been hurt by injuries. If Baron Davis returns to his midseason form, the Hornets could make some serious playoff moves.

Now, it's time for predictions. I see the Lakers and Spurs battling in a classic Western Conference Finals. The Lakers will win, 4-2. In the East, the Pistons will beat the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, 4-3. The Finals will be fun and physical. The Pistons will push the Lakers, but will eventually lose, 4-2. Let the fun begin!

Article courtesy of Sports Central.