ANC Heading for Landslide in South African Poll

South Africa's ruling African National Congress is poised for a landslide victory in elections today which could extend the party's control over all nine of the country's provinces.

Opinion polls suggest the ANC will entrench its dominance by sweeping more than two thirds of parliamentary seats in the third national election since apartheid fell a decade ago.

With victory foretold in the national assembly, attention is focused on whether the opposition can muster enough support to win two swing provinces, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. Each province has its own assembly.

Party leaders have filled airwaves with promises and accusations and their faces adorn ubiquitous posters but it has been a dull campaign - for which South Africans are largely thankful.

Clashes between rival groups in the run-up to voting in 1994 and 1999 left hundreds dead and stoked fears of civil war, but this time there has been just a handful of political killings, prompting relief and jokes that the beloved country is on its way to becoming the boring country.

Dirty tactics used to mean massacres but nowadays refer to ANC trucks rigged with loudspeakers blasting music at opposition rallies, or Inkatha Freedom party members barring certain strongholds to ANC canvassers.

President Thabo Mbeki yesterday sought to soothe fears about a dominant-party state by promising not to meddle with the constitution even if his party won a two-thirds majority which would allow it to do so.

Archbishop Desmond Tutu told SABC radio that civic society and bodies such as the human rights commission were robust enough to safeguard democracy no matter how big the ANC majority.

After a decade in power the ANC's liberation credentials are burnished with success in stabilising the economy and granting millions of poor people the novelty of decent housing, electricity and clean water.

But unemployment has surged to 40%, fuelling poverty and crime, and Mr Mbeki's eccentric views on HIV/Aids delayed treatment for the 5.3 million infected with the virus. The state finally started providing drugs this month.

Cronyism between the ANC and big business has compounded disillusionment and apathy: of the 27 million people eligible to vote only 20 million have registered.

"Standing on the sidelines, failing to go to the polls, is a neglect of the democratic duty," chided Nelson Mandela. The former president's relatively low profile in the election has been attributed to his frailty and the party's desire to move beyond his shadow.

Polls show most black people blame hardships on the legacy of white minority rule and that they believe things will get better.

Hugh Masekela, a famed musician, urged voters to be patient with the "miracle imperfect".

An editorial in the Sowetan newspaper agreed: "With all its failings, we believe strongly that South Africans should give the ANC another five-year shot in governance."

Loyalty to the ruling party stems partly from absent viable alternatives. The natural opposition is from the left - the trade unions and the Communist party - but they are inside the ANC tent and at election time censor their grumbles about fiscal conservatism.

The official opposition parties are fractious.

The biggest, the Democratic Alliance, holds just 46 seats in the 400-seat assembly and despite campaigning in black areas under Tony Leon it has struggled to rebrand itself as a multiracial party rather than one defending white interests.

Though a good tactician and debater, the fact that Mr Leon is white and has a combative style irks black voters who might otherwise be poached from the ANC. Analysts scorn the alliance's stated aim of doubling its vote to 20%.

Mangosuthu Buthelezi's Zulu nationalist Inkatha Freedom party will be lucky to retain control of the KwaZulu-Natal legislature after a strong push by the ANC into what used to be no-go areas for its canvassers.

The New National party, successors to the architects of apartheid, are clinging to power in Western Cape thanks to an opportunistic alliance with the ANC, but its vote is expected to tumble, giving the ANC a chance to run the province on its own.

A mixed race member of parliament, Patricia de Lille, has become a media darling since setting up her own party, the Independent Democrats, and is expected to drain support from the Democratic Alliance.