Fantasy Sports: 2004 Fantasy Points League -- Previewing Starting Pitchers

Major League Baseball's opening day, American as apple pie, is finally here and Fantasy owners are biting at the bit with their new roster full of players.

Of course, drafting Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds were the "easy" picks, but many owners are going to be counting on those so-so players from last season, like Adam Dunn and Carlos Lee, to have breakout years and highly touted rookie sensations like Jason Bay and Bobby Crosby to live up to their lofty expectations in leading Fantasy clubs to a '04 League title.

Fantasy owners are fully aware of the importance of top notch hitters at each position, however, pitching is where Fantasy Points leagues are won and lost.

The cream of the crop of starting pitchers begins with Red Sox's aces Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling and the Cubs' Mark Prior. Each of them starts the 2004 season with the usual questions of health and durability.

Thus, it's imperative that part of your team's strategy should include taking a proven, solid hurler that will take his usual turn between 30-35 starts over course of the season.

Thus, while it is quite common for pitchers to miss starts because of a "dead arm" or a finger blister, don't miss out on the proven gamers like Tim Hudson, Mike Musinna, and Jaime Moyer who will head to the bump every fifth day giving you consistent, if not spectacular numbers.

Also, in 2004, look for the typical rookie or second-year sensations that will provide immediate for your Fantasy staff with the likes of the talented Edwin Jackson, Matt Riley, Jerome Williams, Horacio Ramirez and Cliff Lee. Each could be a team ace in 2004 and are likely to still be available.

Let's see. Should I take Ted Lilly, Kenny Rogers or Kevin Appier with my last pick? Avoid the temptation of settling for mediocrity and take a young stud hoping for the same level of dividends that Dontrelle Willis and Brandon Webb paid handsomely to astute Fantasy owners in 2003.

Now that MLB's staffs are in place, lets preview the starters.

2004 Projections for an Average Starting Pitcher 33 GS / 15 Wins / 10 Losses / 3.59 ERA / 2 CG / 1 SHO / 211 IP / 170 Ks

League using a Fantasy Points system of: "15 Points" for each Win "-10 Points" for each Loss "5 Points" for each Complete Game "10 Points" for each Shutout, and "1 Point" for each Inning Pitched and Strikeout Total Points Projected for an average OF in 2004 = 526 (15.93 PPGS)

2004 SP Rankings and Projections

1. Curt Schilling, BOS (727, 21.38) - Number two starter in Bean Town and number one in the heart of this year's Fantasy preview. Despite battling leg and neck injuries that led to a poor 8-9 record in 2003, Schilling still finished with an impressive 2.95 ERA, three complete games, two shutouts, and 194 Ks in just 168 IP. The Sox "ace' may find pitching in Fenway more difficult, but expect a healthy Schilling to post a dominating 19-8 record with a 3.17 ERA and 249 Ks in 238 IP season in 2004.

2. Kerry Wood, CHC (710, 21.50) - It is hard to believe that this six-year "veteran" is still just 26 years old. Wood is coming off a breakout post-season with which he earned the NL Division Series MVP following masterful clutch performances and don't forget that he made 30+ starts for the second straight year. Look for him and Prior to be the next Koufax and Drysdale dynamic duo for the next several years. Beginning in 2004, expect Wood to be even more dominant, becoming the NL-best with a Cy Young-caliber 18-7 record with a 3.25 and 252 Ks in 218 IP season.

3. Pedro Martinez, BOS (659, 21.25) - Martinez is simply the filthiest, most intimidating 5'11" and 180 pound hurler of all-time. Forget about Bob Gibson, Randy Johnson, or Nolan Ryan, have nothing above Pedro. He is simply one of the greatest and with the addition of Schilling, this tandem will be a menacing force for AL hitters in 2004. The problem is, Martinez is always due for at least one trip to the DL and in competitive leagues the price he commands is much too high for a 25-30 starts guy. Expect another incredible season, when he pitches, to the tune of 17-5 with a 2.30 ERA and 229 Ks in 200 IP in '04.

4. Tim Hudson, A's (675, 19.28) - Hudson is the closest to a modern-day Orel Hershiser, simply he is a bulldog that will give you at least seven scrappy innings in every outing and between 16-20 wins every season. He is not the most feared pitcher around but Fantasy owners most defiantly don't want to face this A's ace. Hudson is so consistent, that another 20 win season with a 2.63 ERA and 175 Ks in 240 IP in 2004 should be expected. In fact, he is the most safe bet of any elite hurler around, so don't miss out on this stud at a good price.

5. Mark Prior, CHC (587, 21.74) - If healthy, which he is not and out until at least mid-May, Prior is without question the most complete young power pitcher in the game and will be one of the best for several years to come. Prior was projected to be a 20-game winner, for the first time in his career, but with the injury setback expect a more modest 15-5 record with a 2.71 ERA and 209 Ks in 183 IP in 2004.

6. Javier Vazquez, NYY (639, 18.79) - The Yankees made it's usual hot stove splashes this off-season inking free agents Gary Sheffield and Kevin Brown to lucrative deals while landing baseball's best player Alex Rodriguez. The best deal of the season, however, was the acquisition of the little-known and one of the game's premier aces in Javier Vazquez. The durable, young workhorse has averaged 225 IP over the last four seasons and a breakout season for the newest Yankee should be easily expected to the tune of a 18-9 record with a 3.65 ERA and 207 Ks in 232 IP in 2004.

7. Mike Mussina, NYY (628, 19.03) - If your expecting "Moose" to bust out with his first 20-win season or win the Cy Young this year, forget about it. Since, he has never accomplished either. The 14-year vet, however, is still one of the top hurlers in the game and will more than likely make every start during the season. In eight of the last nine years, Mussina has made over 30 starts in those seasons, and he is a sure bet for another 19-9 record with a 3.53 ERA and 187 Ks in 221 IP in 2004.

8. Roy Halladay, TOR (617, 17.62) - Despite a winless April, Halladay responded with a record-breaking stretch, 16 straight victories, in route to capturing the 2003 AL Cy Young Award for a mediocre Blue Jays team. He should be considered one of the elite pitchers on your draft board, but be cautioned in not overpaying for him since a less spectacular 16-9 and 3.32 ERA with 195 Ks season is on the horizon in 2004.

9. Randy Johnson, ARZ (617, 20.56) - After winning four straight NL Cy Young awards, the "Big Unit" had a season that was less memorable as he battled through injuries, confidence, and tipping pitches which led to a pathetic 6-8 record and 4.26 ERA in just 18 starts. He clearly is not worthy of selection in the first three rounds but following a lights out Cactus League, the new and healthy "Unit" is in line for a top 10 ranking and a bounce back sleeper season of 15-9 with a 2.86 ERA and 255 Ks in 207 IP.

Value Picks

10. Bartolo Colon, ANA (595, 17.00) - The durable 30-year old has now won 14 or more games in each of the last six seasons, and Colon will definitely earn his new four-year, $48 million deal pitching for the improved Angels' team. He will certainly build upon a so-so '03 campaign and emerge as the Halo's team ace in 2004 with a 18-10 record and a 3.67 ERA with 170 Ks in 230 IP.

11. Roy Oswalt, HOU (589, 18.41) - Despite three trips to the DL in 2003, Oswalt still won 10 games with a 2.97 ERA, including a wicked 4-0 mark with a 2.00 ERA down the stretch. Even with the free agent signings of Andy Pettite and Roger Clemens, Oswalt remains the staff ace and will bounce back, if healthy, with a spectacular 17-7, 3.14 ERA, and 179 Ks campaign in 2004.

12. Mark Mulder, A's (534, 17.22) - Each year, Mulder seems to get lost in the shuffle behind the A's two aces Tim Hudson and Barry Zito, and each season, Fantasy owners reap the elite numbers that he posts at a more valued price. In 2004, he will again be rated lower on draft boards because of a hip injury that prematurely ended his season last season. Don't make this trendy mistake in whether or not to select Mulder because he has all the credentials to be a Cy Young award winner and now completely healthy expect at least a 15-9 record with a 3.44 ERA and 149 Ks in 215 IP in 2004.

13. Barry Zito, A's (583, 16.66) - Zito followed up his 2002 Cy Young Award campaign with a mediocre 14-12 record with a 3.30 ERA. And, while he has one of the finest curveballs in the game, Zito did struggle mightily with his control and saw his strikeouts decline by almost two per game in 2003. He did, however, limit opposing hitters to a .219 average which indicates more than anything that last year was a fluke and a bounce back season of at least a 16-10 record with a 3.20 ERA and 177 Ks in 231 IP is once again on the radar for one of baseball's best hurlers.

14. Kevin Millwood, PHI (576, 16.46) - The Phillies' staff ace was lights out at times, including a no-hitter, and very hittable at other times as indicated by his 14-12 record, 4.01 ERA, and opposing hitter's second-half .272 batting average against him. At 27, Millwood has all the stuff to be a legit number one on any Fantasy roster. Expect more run support and consistency from him this season which result in a solid 16-11 record with a 3.82 ERA and 180 Ks in 226 IP in 2004.

15. Roger Clemens, HOU (571, 17.84) - In 2003, the Astros had arguably the worst starting five in baseball and with the off-season additions of Any Pettitte and Roger Clemens, Houston will have one of the elite staffs in the National League this season. The "Rocket" may not be the pitcher he once was, but he is without a doubt one of the best number two's that will be available at an affordable price on draft day. Play the Michael Jordan and George Foreman retirement card up prior to the draft and you will walk away with an impressive 15-8 record with a 3.80 ERA and 202 Ks in 209 IP from this sleeper in 2004.

16. Josh Beckett, FLA (542, 18.07) - How many starting pitchers crack the top 20 with a 17-17 career record in three seasons as a 23-year old? Zero, unless your last name is Beckett. He is still a few years away from stardom, but he is definitely a young keeper who will not be forgotten on draft day following is W.S. MVP and NLCS performances. Expect the young Marlins' ace to have his best season in 2004, if he stays healthy, to the tune of a 14-10 record with a 3.44 ERA and 211 Ks in 206 IP. Buyer beware, Beckett has had a history of shoulder and elbow injuries with persistent blister problems, thus bid accordingly despite his huge upside.

17. Kevin Brown, NYY (536, 18.48) - The former Dodger and the newest Yankee is coming off an incredible comeback season as he finished with a 14-9 record and a 2.39 ERA in 211 IP for one of the worst offensive teams in baseball history. Despite being 39-years old, Brown still has great stuff and is an ultimate warrior who will mystify hitter's with a tremendous assortment of pitches in any situation. The only concern at his age is his injury-plagued past, but if Brown is able to make at least 30 starts expecting a 16-6, 2.97 ERA, and 164 Ks in 192 IP season in 2004 is very reachable.

18. Andy Pettitte, HOU (551, 16.21) - Is there a better clutch pitcher than Pettitte? The Yankees will find out just how valuable he was and will without a doubt miss him. The Yankees' mindless misfortune will be the Astros' pleasure. Pettitte will not duplicate last season's 21 wins but still should be every bit as consistent with a 17-9 record, 3.70 ERA, and 153 Ks in 218 IP in 2004.

19. Matt Morris, STL (507, 16.90) - Despite missing between eight starts last season with a broken hand and an ankle injury, Morris still finished third in the NL with five complete games and a sound 3.76 ERA. Not only is health a alarming for Fantasy owners, but his win and innings pitched totals have also dipped significantly in each of the past three seasons from 22/216 to 17/210 to 11/172, which raises the question of his durability over the season's long-haul. From all indications, Morris is completely healthy and should re-establish himself as one of the top aces in the NL which suggests a comeback season of a 15-9 record, with a 3.21 ERA, and 148 Ks in 204 IP is on the horizon for 2004.

20. Jaime Moyer, SEA (538, 15.82) - He may very well be the next coming of the modern-day Phil Niekro or Warren Spahn and although he's 41, Moyer is still one of the effective starting pitchers in the game that can out duel the toughest hurlers on any given day. He may not strike fear in the mind's of batters, but he will continue to change speeds, paint both sides of the plate, and post another impressive 16-8 record with a 3.49 ERA and 133 Ks in 225 IP as the M's staff ace in 2004.

Quality Fantasy Number Three's

21. Mark Buehrle, CWS (542, 15.48) - After a showcase 39-21 record in his first three seasons, Buehrle looked like a complete bust last season, going 2-10 with a 5.18 ERA through June 11. He will be a definite sleeper this season and expecting him to ride his second-half surge (12-4, 3.46 ERA) into 2004 is not a lot to ask for. Project: 17-11, 3.80 ERA, 135 Ks, and 237 IP.

22. Carlos Zambrano, CHC (531, 16.59) - At just 22, he makes up one-fifth of the best rotation in baseball. And despite his youth, Zambrano is well ahead of his years in knowing how to get quality hitters out on a consistent basis and with his dominating 90-95 MPH sinking fastball, another banner season is expected. Project: 15-10, 3.44 ERA, 177 Ks, and 209 IP.

23. Jose Contreras, NYY (527, 16.46) - Contreras had a very disappointing first-half (4.62 ERA) in his rookie season with the Yankees that included a controversial demotion to Single A ball and flashbacks of the highly touted Hideki Irabu in his first season with pinstripes. Once recalled, he responded with an awesome second half of the season (2.56 ERA), limiting opponents to a microscopic .187 average. Forget the memories, and remember what counts. Contreras will be a tremendous addition and sleeper for any Fantasy roster in 2004. Project: 14-9, 3.44 ERA, 192 Ks, and 200 IP.

24. Brandon Webb, ARZ (516, 16.64) - No "Spud" here folks. The eighth round pick in the 2000 amateur draft burst onto the Fantasy scene in '03 with a spectacular debut with which he finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. In 28 games with the Diamondbacks, Webb went just 10-9 but finished fourth in the NL with a 2.84 ERA, tenth in strikeouts with 172, and ranked third in opponents batting average (.212), including holding right-handers to a laughable .167 average. Could there be a sophomore slump on the horizon for the young kid in the desert? Forget about it, Webb is the real deal. Project: 14-11, 3.39 ERA, 200 Ks, and 201 IP.

25. Livan Hernandez, MON (524, 14.97) - Is this the same "El Duque" who starred for the Giants in 2000, going 17-11 with five complete games? Yes, indeed. Fantasy owners abroad may not know but Hernandez bounced back in 2003 after consecutive sub-par seasons to re-affirm himself as a legit number three or four starter for any Fantasy roster. He will not duplicate his 3.20 ERA but he is a good bet for another solid season in 2004. Project: 15-14, 3.87 ERA, 165 Ks, and 239 IP.

26. Randy Wolf, PHI (511, 15.48) - Even though the young Phillies' southpaw set a career-high in wins with 16, his numbers across the Fantasy board were actually worse than his previous two seasons. Wolf's ERA was more than four (4.24) for the first time since 2000 and he gave up a career-worst 27 gopher balls. Expect this Wolf to take a bite from his ERA in 2004 and establish himself as one of the brightest young stars in the NL. Project: 15-12, 3.77, 170 Ka, and 201 IP.

27. Johan Santana, MIN (519, 17.30) - Finally! Twins manager Ron Gardenhire finally made the right decision in 2003, moving Santana from middle reliever to starter. If his 11-2 record and 2.86 ERA in 18 starts last season are any indications of what s to come, he will truly be a Fantasy delight in 2004. The young ace has terrific stuff , the only concern facing Fantasy gurus is if he will durable enough to get between 30-35 starts this season to be worth the dollar he'll command. Project: 13-7, 3.19 ERA, 191 Ks, and 188 IP.

28. Jason Schmidt, SF (482, 16.62) - 2003 was a story book season for this young Giants' gun and the only question facing Fantasy experts is if Schmidt will be fully recovered from off season elbow surgery. He recently threw 60 pitches in a recent session with no pain, reaching up into the mid-90's, suggesting that Schmidt may be ready soon and build off his impressive 17-5 and 2.34 ERA campaign. Project: 13-8, 3.30 ERA, 172 Ks, and 190 IP.

29. Joel Pineiro, SEA (511, 15.48) - Expectations are running high for the M's number two starter and while Pineiro had a solid overall 2003 season (16-11, 3.78 ERA in 32 starts), it wasn't without a few bumps in the road. His second-half collapse (5-6, 4.57) is alarming, but he is still talented enough to bounce back with an improved season in 2004. Project: 15-11, 3.72 ERA, 155 Ks, and 216 IP.

30. Derek Lowe, BOS (500, 15.15) - Lowe's awkward 2003 Fantasy line was almost comical (17-7, 4.47 ERA), but quite simply he is a gamer that will give the powerful Red Sox club a chance at victory every time he steps to the bump. He may not be the prettiest pitcher around but Lowe is a perfect fit as the number three starter in Bean Town and will provide invaluable consistency for any Fantasy roster. Project: 16-10, 3.63 ERA, 123 Ks, and 222 IP.

The Best of the Rest(Projections)

31. Brad Penny, FLA - 16-11, 3.75 ERA, 150 Ks, 200 IP 32. C.C. Sabathia, CLE - 15-12, 3.99 ERA, 155 Ks, 223 IP 33. Wade Miller, HOU - 13-9, 3.71 ERA, 170 Ks, 185 IP 34. Freddy Garcia, SEA - 15-13, 4.04 ERA, 162 Ks, 221 IP 35. Jake Peavy, SD - 14-10, 3.85 ERA, 168 Ks, 207 IP 36. Odalis Perez, LA - 13-9, 3.87 ERA, 157 Ks, 202 IP 37. Greg Maddux, CHC - 15-9, 3.65 ERA, 130 Ks, 213 IP 38. Dontrelle Willis, FLA - 13-10, 3.67 ERA, 167 Ks, 208 IP 39. Matt Clement, CHC - 14-12, 4.06 ERA, 181 Ks, 195 IP 40. Sidney Ponson, BAL - 15-13, 3.99 ERA, 140 Ks, 219 IP 41. Hideo Nomo, LA - 14-12, 3.89 ERA, 165 Ks, 211 IP 42. Russ Ortiz, ATL - 14-12, 3.91 ERA, 158 Ks, 218 IP 43. Esteban Loaiza, CWS - 14-13, 4.08 ERA, 162 Ks, 217 IP 44. Woody Williams, STL - 14-9, 3.64 ERA, 137 Ks, 187 IP 45. Brad Radke, MIN - 15-12, 4.27 ERA, 121 Ks, 230 IP 46. Vincente Padilla, PHI - 13-11, 3.73 ERA, 145 Ks, 211 IP 47. Brett Myers, PHI - 14-12, 4.00 ERA, 151 Ks, 199 IP 48. Horacio Ramirez, ATL - 12-7, 3.80 ERA, 134 Ks, 193 IP 49. Jeff Suppan, STL - 13-12, 3.94 ERA, 126 Ks, 214 IP 50. John Lackey, ANA - 14-11, 4.11 ERA, 144 Ks, 205 IP 51. Tim Wakefield, BOS - 12-8, 3.91 ERA, 160 Ks, 203 IP

Sleepers: Worth Your Time & Dime

* Tim Hudson, Oak - Will not likely go as high as a Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, or Mark Prior. But he is every bit the pitcher and will win more than 20 in 2004 at a very good price.

* Javier Vazquez, NYY - From the north of the border ghost town to the big city lights of New York. Vazquez will be among Fantasy's brightest stars in '04.

* Randy Johnson, ARZ - Completely healthy which means a completely lights out comeback season for the "Big Unit."

* Mark Mulder, OAK - Was in-line to win his first Cy Young last season until a hip injury ended his season in August. Play the injury up on draft day, and your team may have this season's AL Cy Young in the fifth round or even later.

* Mark Buehrle, CWS - 12-4 record down the stretch means a tremendous sleeper pick. Don't miss out on this ace this season.

* Jose Contreras, NYY - Penciled in as the Yankees number three starter which means plenty of run support. Like Contreras needs it, considering opponents hit for a .187 clip off him in the second-half. Don't be the owner that lets him drop any further than the middle-round.

* Brad Penny, FLA - Last season in Florida, it was all about the Beckett n' Willis tandem, but don't forget about Penny's second-half surge and two W.S. victories. It's all about the Penny in 2004.

* Freddy Garcia, SEA - The "Chief" has looked more like "Bad Cheese" the last few years, but he did finish the month of September with a 1.97 ERA in five starts and has been brilliant all Spring thus expect Garcia to rebound with a season similar to his breakout ' 01 campaign (18-6 record) at a low price on draft day.

* Jake Peavy, SD - Main ingredient for a quality, young staff that is sure to prosper from pitching in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Expect Jake to snake out a breakout Fantasy season to the tune of a 14-10 record.

* Horacio Ramirez, ATL - The 24-year old southpaw quietly established himself as a viable Fantasy option in '03, and this season he will even be better as he settles into the revamped Braves' rotation.

* John Lackey, ANA - The native Texan will ride into Anaheim this season with his best full season as big leaguer. With this said, Lackey will not disappoint in his portrayal as the Lone Ranger or better yet the forth starter for an improved Halos' staff and he could be a major late round steal in '04.

* Eric Milton, PHI - Major knee surgery derailed most of the 2003 season for well-heralded Milton, but now that his knee completely recovered and has since relocated to Pitcher's Paradise in Philadelphia expecting 13-15 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA could be in the cards for the 28-year old.

* Mark Redman, OAK - The newest A's number four starter should fit nicely in a rotation made up of three perennial Cy Young Award-candidates which means that Redman could easily improve upon his 14-9 and 3.59 ERA '03 season.

* Rafael Soriano, SEA - Soriano has tremendous stuff to be a upper tier starting pitcher. The problem is, the Mariners believe that he is best suited as their setup man in 2004, and unless one of the starters is injured that is exactly the role Soriano will play. However, he will be a Fantasy delight sometime during the season, a.k.a. Johan Santana of the Twins. So take the gamble.

* Zack Greinke, KC - The 20-year old sensation is often compared to Mark Prior, and based on his 15-4 record, 1.93 ERA, 112 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 140 innings in his 2003 minor league debut who can argue? Although, Greinke failed to make the big team this Spring, one day soon he will be among the most dominant pitchers in the game and it may even be this season.

* Matt Riley, BAL - The 24-year old lefthander should be on every Fantasy rosters' sleeper list because simply Riley has Ron Guidry-type stuff and is penciled in the O's rotation. In two September starts last season, Riley posted a 1.80 ERA while limiting opponents to a microscopic 1.94 batting average. How does that sound as your forth or fifth starter?

Busts: Let me to you about the Dangers

* Roy Halladay, TOR - The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner begins this season high on most Fantasy wish lists however there is no way he will duplicate the record-breaking win streak enjoyed last season. Expect no more holidays from Halladay in 2004.

* Josh Beckett, FLA - The kid has everything, including a World Series MVP and ring to show for his heroic efforts, but one thing he does not have is Fantasy worthiness. Beckett has yet to start more than 25 games in any season, he has a 17-17 career record, and he has a history of recurring elbow and blister problems. Warning: He will priced way too high in 2004 because of his post-season resume, do not fall into the trap.

* Kevin Brown, NYY - Amazingly, the 39-year old Brown made 32 starts with the Dodgers last season in a remarkable bounce back season, following two painful Fantasy seasons with which he made just 29 starts combined. Even though he is one of baseball's greatest competitors, Father Time will eventually catch up to Brown. Don't let it be with your dollars in 2004.

* Jason Schmidt, SF - In October, following a Cy Young-caliber season, Schmidt underwent elbow surgery to remove scar tissue and repair a tendon. Doctors suggested that the procedure nor the injury was that serious, however the words "elbow" and "surgery" in the same breath are particularly alarming for owners counting on him. Even if he comes back healthy, Schmidt will be hard-pressed to duplicate last season thus draft for modest numbers at best. Mr. Consistency: Safe Bets for 2004

Kerry Wood, CHC Tim Hudson, OAK Mike Mussina, NYY Bartolo Colon, ANA Andy Pettitte, HOU Jaime Moyer, SEA Carlos Zambrano, CHC Brandon Webb, ARZ Derek Lowe, BOS C.C. Sabathia, CLE Greg Maddux, CHC Brad Radke, MIN Tim Wakefield, BOS Kip Wells, PIT Brian Lawrence, SD Kirk Rueter, SF