Hoops -- Week in Review & Rankings (No. 6)

A prominent basketball writer was once asked to make a prediction on who would win the upcoming game being played by Liberty. He replied, "Give me death."

Well, this year, we will have to settle for Liberty. The Flames won the Big South Conference automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, torching High Point 89-44 in the conference tournament final.

There was much excitement this past weekend as teams battled for conference championships and others tried to edit their resume one final time in order to look good for the tournament selection committee.

Let's take a look at some items of interest from the conference tournaments and how they affect the overall NCAA Tournament picture.

* Austin Peay and Boston University are two schools cursing the "speed-round" format of conference tournament play. After completing the conference schedule with a perfect 16-0 mark and reaching the final of the Ohio Valley conference tournament, Austin Peay was knocked off by rival Murray State and will be denied a bid to the Big Dance. The Terriers of Boston University, who finished a league-best 17-1 in America East, were unceremoniously bounced in the semi-finals of the conference tournament by No. 8 seed Stony Brook. BU had beaten Stony Brook in both meetings during the regular season. It's certainly madness, but no one said it was fair.

* Another No. 1 seed that lost in its conference tournament was Southern Illinois. The Salukis were knocked off by Southwest Missouri State in the semi-finals of the Missouri Valley tournament, 80-74. With an RPI of 25, Southern Illinois will most likely get an at-large bid despite their loss. But, more significantly, this puts a major monkey wrench in the chances of the "bubble" teams around the nation. Why? If we assume that the Salukis will get an at-large bid, all of the "bubble" teams have just moved one spot back in line to accommodate them. This is why the "bubble" teams root very hard for the top mid-major teams to win their conference tournaments. Also, a "mid-major" conference like the Missouri Valley doesn't mind seeing their powerful top seed go down. Now, they will likely get two teams into the tournament in Southern Illinois and the eventual conference tournament champion, who gets the automatic bid.

* The Ivy League is the only conference in America that awards their NCAA tournament automatic bid to the regular season champion. They have made the decision to reward the team that has compiled the best record in a home/away series with each of the other conference teams over the course of the season. What an interesting concept! It is hard to argue that this is not the most reasonable and just way to award an NCAA tournament bid. However, corporate money and the lure of a prime-time conference championship game on ESPN has engulfed college basketball and made the tournaments "necessary." Is it any surprise that the prestigious and respected Ivy League is the only conference in America that has decided to leave the money on the table?

Battle for the Bids: Who's In and Who's On The Bubble?

Let's take a closer look at the top conferences in the nation and the teams that have all but locked up a bid ("IN") or are trying to solidify their resume in order to remain in consideration ("BUBBLE").

Key RPI: Ratings Percentage Index SOS: Strength of Schedule QW: Quality Wins BL: Bad Losses

ACC

In (5): Duke, NC State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, North Carolina Bubble: Maryland, Virginia, Florida State

Maryland (16-11, 7-9) made a major statement in their case for an 11th consecutive NCAA tournament bid. The Terps won at NC State and at home over Virginia to lock up 6th place in the ACC. A win over Wake Forest in the 1st Round of the ACC Tournament would help, but it looks like the Terps will get in regardless. Virginia (17-11, 6-10) got themselves into the conversation over the last two weeks with a trio of improbable two-point wins over Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Wake Forest. However, their luck ran out on Sunday at Maryland and the Cavaliers will have to make a run in the ACC tournament to get a bid. Florida State (18-12, 6-10) finished with four straight losses and failed to win an ACC road game all year. Assuming they beat Clemson in the ACC Tournament play-in game, they would have to upset top-seeded Duke in the quarter-finals or they will remain behind Maryland and Virginia in the pecking order for a bid.

Atlantic 10

In (2): St Joseph's, Dayton Bubble: Richmond, George Washington, Xavier

The A-10 should get a second bid and that is likely to go to Dayton (22-7, 12-4), despite an unimpressive finish to the season. Keep in mind that the conference tournament is at Dayton Arena, which certainly helps the Flyers' chances to make a run. Richmond (18-11, 10-6) hasn't really done anything to lose a bid, it's just that there probably won't be enough to go around. George Washington (17-10, 11-5) will get a shot at unbeaten St. Joseph's (27-0, 16-0) in the A-10 tournament, assuming both can win their quarter-final games. An upset win would obviously give them a much stronger case. (Xavier (19-10, 10-6) needs to win the conference tournament to get a bid. Their RPI (52) is not up to par.

Big 10

In (3): Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin Bubble: Iowa

Why is the name Bob Bowlby important? He is the chairman of the tournament selection committee and his school, Iowa (16-11, 9-7) could get consideration if they can win a few games in the conference tournament. If so, look for the "walk-out factor", as discussed in last week's column to possibly rear its ugly head. We can hope this doesn't happen, but college basketball is all about politics. You can never put anything past a selection committee, as we discovered in 2000.

Big 12

In (4): Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech Bubble: Colorado, Missouri, Oklahoma

Texas Tech (21-9, 9-7) finished strong in the final week and looks to be in the field. Colorado (18-9, 10-6) has the 10 conference wins, but gets hurt with an RPI of 53. They need a win in the conference tournament. Missouri (15-12, 9-7) blew a pair of golden opportunities this week at Texas Tech and home against Kansas. Their RPI (36) and SOS (10) are what keep them alive. Oklahoma (18-9, 8-8) has a streak of nine consecutive NCAA tournament appearances on the line. They probably need two wins in the conference tournament for that streak to continue.

Big East

In (6): Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Providence, Syracuse, Boston College, Seton Hall Bubble: Notre Dame

The top six are all locks. They all have 20 or more wins overall and 10 or more conference wins. Notre Dame (16-11, 9-7) will have to win two games in the Big East tournament and then hope that the selection committee will take seven teams from the Big East, which is not likely.

Conference USA

In (6): DePaul, Memphis, Cincinnati, Charlotte, UAB, Louisville Bubble: None

Who would have thought a couple of weeks ago that DePaul (19-8, 12-4) would win eight of their last nine games and win a five way tie-breaker for the top-seed in the Conference USA tournament? Perhaps even more surprising is that one of the five teams that tied for the regular season title is NOT Louisville (19-8, 9-7)! The Cardinals, with an RPI of 20, are the No. 6 seed in the conference tournament. It should be a wild few days of action in Cincinnati for the Conference USA crown.

Pac-10

In (2): Stanford, Arizona Bubble: Washington

Washington (17-10, 12-6) stunned the basketball world by ruining the undefeated season of Stanford (26-1, 17-1) with a 75-62 romp over the Cardinal. The win even jumped the Huskies over Arizona (19-8, 11-7) for 2nd place in the Pac-10. Despite an RPI of 75, the Huskies are likely to get the third bid from the Pac-10. The QW's over Stanford and Arizona twice cannot be ignored.

SEC

In (7): Mississippi St, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, LSU, South Carolina Bubble: None

By beating the living daylights out of each other all season, Vanderbilt (19-8, 8-8), LSU (18-9, 8-8), Alabama (16-11, 8-8) and South Carolina (21-9, 8-8) all finished .500 in the conference. Considering that all four teams have strong RPI and SOS numbers, it looks like the SEC will send seven teams to the dance. If anyone is to be left out, it could be South Carolina, who lost seven of nine to end the season and have an RPI of 43 and an SOS of 81. Both of those are by far the worst among this group of 8-8 teams.

Other Teams to Watch

Southern Illinois (25-4, 17-1): The Salukis were upset in the Missouri Valley conference tournament, but will likely steal an at-large bid by virtue of their RPI of 25. This will hurt teams like Missouri, Notre Dame and Richmond, who will have fewer bids to fight over, assuming the Salukis get a pity bid from the committee. However, they have played poorly down the stretch and I would not put much stock in them as a tourney "sleeper".

Western Michigan (23-4, 15-3): The MAC has been awarded multiple tourney bids over the last few years, and if the Broncos stumble in the conference tournament, they may nab an at-large bid. As discussed in the case of Southern Illinois, this would be damaging to the bubble teams around the nation, who will certainly be rooting for Western to win the conference tournament and hold the MAC to just one bid. Personally, I think this team has no business getting an at-large bid. They have an unimpressive RPI of 56, a hideous SOS of 256 and only one QW to speak of, which was over UAB back in December.

East Tennessee State (27-5, 15-1): They were the 1st team to receive a bid to the 2004 NCAA Tournament by winning their second straight Southern Conference tournament championship. As a No. 15 seed in last year's NCAA Tournament, the Bucs nearly shocked the No. 2 seed, Wake Forest, losing 76-73. They have an experienced coach in Murray Bartow and two tremendous leaders in 5'9 guard Tim Smith and conference player of the year (and possibly national name of the year) Zakee Wadood.

In a related note, there has been a great deal of research going on at NASA in trying to determine whether there was, or is, life on Mars. Well, I think I have found some important evidence while studying the East Tennessee State schedule. It looks as though Mars has a college basketball team! On November 25th, the Bucs defeated a team called Mars Hill by the score of 100-57. The game is curiously listed as a "home" game for East Tennessee State, which would hint at the fact that there are teams that play at Mars Hill. What a road trip that must be! That's a lot of tall people to put into one of those little space capsules. I will continue to probe the situation and report my findings.

Next week: It's tourney time! We'll take a comprehensive look at the 2004 NCAA Tournament brackets by region and who the teams and players to watch will be.