China's Barrier to Independence Infuriates Taiwan

A bill against Taiwanese independence, which is to be put before the Chinese legislature, brought more than 15,000 protesters on to the streets of Taipei yesterday, amid fears that it will be used by Beijing to justify military action.

The anti-secession bill, which has been described by the US as a provocation and by China as a step towards peaceful reunification, is expected to be passed during the current meeting of the annual National People's Congress.

In his opening speech to the congress on Saturday, the prime minister, Wen Jiabao, vowed never to allow Taiwan "to separate from China under any name or by any means".

"This law represents the common will and strong determination of the entire Chinese people to safeguard the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country," Mr Wen said during the two-hour speech, to loud applause from the nearly 3,000 delegates in the Great Hall of the People.

But he also struck a conciliatory tone, reflecting a recent improvement in cross-strait relations: "We will make the greatest possible effort to do anything conducive to the development of cross-strait relations and the country's peaceful reunification."

Aside from the Taiwan issue, Mr Wen emphasised the need to address the glaring social inequality that threatens stability in the provinces and announced plans to cool down the economy by reducing the growth rate to 8% this year, compared with 9.5 % in 2004.

The Communist party has submitted hundreds of bills to this year's congress. In more than 50 years, the congress, which in theory is the highest decision-making body in the country, has never rejected a bill, a personnel nomination or budget proposal.

The contents of the anti-secession law will be made public later this week. Analysts say it is likely to be a legal codification of the Communist party's longstanding policy, under which Taiwan is a renegade province that must be re-unified with the mainland, preferably by peaceful means but by force if necessary.

The thousands of pro-independence supporters who marched in Taiwan yesterday see the law as an escalation of the conflict. They fear it will be used to declare island-wide referendums illegal and justify the use of military force.

"The goal of the anti-secession law is to swallow Taiwan," said the former Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui.

Such concerns have also been fuelled by the build-up of China's military, which will be further boosted by a 12.8% increase in the defence budget during this year's congress.

But, depending on its contents, the anti-secession bill could, in fact, provide a breakthrough in the 56-year conflict.

Cross-strait relations have improved considerably since the bill was first mooted last summer.

Beijing has eased restrictions on agricultural produce from the island, increased semi-official contacts and allowed the first direct charter flights.

The recent language of leaders on both sides has also been conciliatory. The Taiwanese president, Chen Shui-bian, vowed last month not to change the island's name or use reform of the constitution to promote independence.

Last Friday, China's president, Hu Jintao, welcomed the "signs of relaxation" in the relationship.

Chinese political analysts say the legislation is designed to foster cross-strait ties and to counter "outside" interference, particularly from the US, Taiwan's main ally.

"The anti-secession law will not create tension. It will help relations between the two sides to be smoother," said Zhang Tongxin, director of Taiwan studies at the People's University in Beijing.

"But it is a warning to the US that it should not interfere in our domestic issues. And it is a message to independence forces in Taiwan that we can punish them if they try to separate from the mainland."