US Elections 2004: Latest Polls

Presidential election poll

George Bush 46%

John Kerry 45%

Ralph Nader 6%

AP/Ipsos Public Affairs (full poll results can be viewed on the site from March 8)

The first poll since John Kerry secured the Democratic nomination in the Super Tuesday primaries shows just how close the presidential race is likely to be.

President George Bush enjoys the support of 46% of the electorate, according to the Associated Press/Ipsos Public Affairs poll carried out between March 1-3, while Senator Kerry is just behind on 45%.

The survey of 771 voters also suggests that while Ralph Nader would secure a small proportion of the vote, his presence in the race raises serious concerns for Democratic campaigners who fear he could split their supporters and hand a narrow victory to the Republicans.

This is what Democrats accused him of doing in the 2000 election, when Mr Nader stood as a Green Party candidate.

Mr Nader appeared on the ballot in 43 states and Washington DC, mustering only 2.7% of the vote. But in Florida and New Hampshire, Mr Bush won such narrow victories that had Democratic challenger Al Gore received the bulk of Mr Nader's votes in those states, he would have won the general election.

Exit polls from 2000 show that about half of Mr Nader's voters would have backed Mr Gore in a two-way race.

Mr Nader, who is campaigning as a consumer champion, denies being a so-called "spoiler" candidate. But the AP/Ipsus poll, which shows he has captured enough support since he entered the race just two weeks ago to affect the outcome of the November elections, will cause unease in Democratic ranks.

To add to their discomfort, most recent polls that did not include Mr Nader showed Senator Kerry was slightly ahead of, or tied with, President Bush. The survey also showed that Mr Bush's job approval was 48%, which is almost unchanged from 47% last month.

His approval rating, which soared close to 90% in a wave of patriotic fervour following the September 11 2001 terrorist attacks, has dipped to the lowest levels of his presidency in recent weeks.