Bubble breakdown -- Who will make it and who won't

The last week of the regular season in college basketball is upon us and some teams are jostling for position and making desperate attempts to jump off the proverbial bubble, while others bubbles are bursting.

I have taken an in-depth look at the teams who are still on the bubble, then rated their chances of making it to the dance as an automatic or at-large qualifier based on three factors:

* RPI * Remaining Schedule * Conference tournament chances.

If a team had completed its regular season schedule, I rated their remaining schedule the same as their conference tournament chances.

Each team was graded on these three factors from 1 to 10, a total of 30, to conclude who is probably going to be in and who is probably going to be out of the tournament. Here are the results.

Probably In

Scored: 28 out of 30 points

Southern Illinois, 21-6 (RPI 38): Southern Illinois with its latest run is an odds on favorite to make the tournament regardless of their showing in the Missouri Valley Tournament. Big wins over Creighton and Wisconsin-Milwaukee have propelled them to a top 40 RPI, and the Salukis have won nine out of their last 10.

Weber State, 23-4 (RPI 45): A marginal prospect if they don't win their conference tournament. Winners of 15 straight and undefeated in conference play should have no problem getting in as an automatic qualifier.

Scored: 27 points

BYU, 20-7 (RPI 19): Highest RPI of any "bubble" team. Final two games are at home against Wyoming and Colorado State. They probably will get in regardless of MWC Tournament fate.

Scored: 26 points

Butler, 23-4 (RPI 40): Co-champs of Horizon League have played a rather difficult schedule and by finishing first in the conference will get a first-round bye in the Horizon Tournament, avoiding the dreaded quarterfinal loss, which cost them a bid last year.

Gonzaga, 22-7 (RPI 42): Has played some difficult non-conference games (Indiana, Kentucky, NC State) to boost their status, but it shouldn't matter, a West Coast Conference Tournament title seems likely.

College Of Charleston, 21-6 (RPI 69): A long shot for an automatic bid with the lowest RPI of the bubble candidates, but near a lock in the horrid Southern Conference.

Scored: 23 points

Cincinnati, 16-9 (RPI 24): The first "major" team listed. Has played a grueling schedule with the likes of Marquette, Louisville, and Oklahoma State that will most likely get them in. But the remaining schedule at home versus a surprising UAB team and on the road at Marquette, could leave UC in the dust if they were to lose both and receive an early exit in the conference tournament.

Indiana, 17-10 (RPI 34): As long as they stay .500 or better in the Big Ten they're in, and they should with games in Bloomington versus Minnesota and on the road at Penn State. But you never know which Indiana team will show up.

Scored: 22 points

Purdue, 17-9 (RPI 32) Team that got off to a red-hot start, has cooled considerably. Big Ten Record should get them in regardless of what happens in the season finale at Michigan. But a loss there coupled with a loss early in the jumbled Big Ten, the committee may look elsewhere.

Michigan State, 16-11 (RPI 36) Has played one of the top ten schedules in the country, and has beaten Kentucky. A win against Syracuse a few weeks ago would have made them a shoe in. They should win at home against Iowa, and will be challenged by the home-tough Buckeyes in Columbus. Two wins combined in the tournament or in the last Big Ten games should leave the Spartans dancing.

Maybe In

Scored: 21 points

Alabama, 16-9 (RPI 30): Has a mediocre conference record, which the committee said was not going to be overlooked this year. Needs to win its last two conference games (vs. South Carolina, at LSU), because the SEC Tournament will be the toughest around to win a game or two.

Seton Hall, 16-9 (RPI 33): Conference record is a bright spot at 10-4, and can solidify its spot with wins at Pittsburgh and Providence. Pitt will be a tough game and they haven't done well against higher ranked teams. Big East Tournament will be a test.

Arizona State, 17-10 (RPI 35) The Sun Devils will probably get in assuming they beat either Oregon or Oregon State at home in their last two regular season games. With freshman Ike Diogu leading the way, they need to prove themselves by getting a high profile win in the PAC-10 Tourney.

Auburn, 18-9 (RPI 37): See Alabama.

LSU, 17-9 (RPI 44): See Alabama.

Colorado, 17-10 (RPI 47): Colorado has been an enigma this year, they finally won a Big 12 game on the road, but have been nearly unstoppable in the high elevations of Boulder. With their last two at home, the Buffs can gain momentum into the gauntlet known as the Big 12 Tournament.

Needs Help

Scored: Less than 20 points

These teams need to win multiple games and hope for help down the stretch.

NC State: Good conference record, but may not win in conference again.

Texas Tech: Loss vs. Kansas in Lubbock on Monday was devastating.

Boston College: Needs to win at least three games in March. Minnesota: Indiana and Illinois on tap spells NIT for Gophers. Wyoming: Cowboys need impressive showing in Mountain West Tournament. Tennessee: Wins in SEC are hard to come by

No Chance

Fresno State: Dance hopeful crushed with sanctions handed down for academic fraud.