Spring Training preview - AL Central (Pt. 2)

By Peter Friberg Sports Central Columnist

With Spring Training now in session, it's time to start thinking baseball. Here's a look at the American League Central Division.

Chicago gets praise from most prognosticators; saying that along with Minnesota, and/or Cleveland, they should be favorites for the AL East. I find this tempered enthusiasm a bit interesting.

In 2000, the White Sox won 95 games. And thus, all the experts said '01 would be an equally successful year. However, after a trade with the Blue Jays gone bad, and one ruptured bicep, the Pale Hose were hurting.

Now with Mark Buehrle (3.29 ERA in 221.1) as the default ace, and most likely backed up by Todd Ritchie (4.47 in 207.1), Jim Parque (8.04 in 28.0), Jon Garland (3.69 in 117.0), and Rocky Biddle (5.39 in 128.2), this team would like to be wowed in spring training by 6-11 RHP Jon Rauch (he should be in the starting rotation by the trading deadline).

While the starting rotation may not quiet unsettled stomachs, White Sox fans can spell relief, 'F-O-U-L-K-E." In 2001, Keith Foulke (2.33 in 81.0) cemented himself as one of the dominating closers in baseball. Foulke converted 42 of 45 save opportunities last year and his talent is arguably second only to Mariano Rivera among current closers.

Foulke's chances at racking up saves this year may be hurt by his own team's offense. The White Sox have quite a prolific offense this year (for a save opportunity, a relief pitcher must come into the game with his team up by three or fewer runs); the ChiSox offense will allow the White Sox bullpen to mop up many blowouts in '02.

Frank Thomas (.221/.316/.441 - batting average/on-base percentage/slugging) played in only 20 games last season, and will look to duplicate his 2000 numbers (.328 with 43 HR and 143 RBI) while he tries to make South Side fans forget about 2001. This year, the Big Hurt will cause pain on opposing teams.

Magglio Ordonez (.305/.382/.533) is quietly becoming a very good hitter. Batting behind a healthy Thomas in '02 will give MagPipes a chance to improve on already solid numbers. Paul Konerko (.282/.349/.507), Carlos Lee (.269/.321/.468), and Jose Valentin (.258/.336/.509) will bat behind Magglio and should all have equally solid years. This lineup has very few holes.

With free agent signee, CF Kenny Lofton (.261/.322/.398) looking to improve on his career worst numbers, and leading off, there could be lots of RBI chances for the big boys coming up behind him.

I have very strong feelings about this team. I expect them to run away with the AL Central. They could even challenge the Yankees (and others) for the AL Pennant if their starting rotation rounds into form.

Cleveland retooled as their management cut some payroll. The talk out of the Cleveland camp suggests that the Indians are still competitive. However, while the pitching may be the best it has been in recent memory (better than the '95 or '97 AL Champion teams), their offense harkens to the days spent at the "Mistake on the Lake" (Cleveland Municipal Stadium).

Bartolo Colon (4.09 in 222.1) and C.C. Sabathia (4.39 in 180.1) form one of the best hard-throwing 1-2 combinations in baseball. However, for the Indians to have a chance at success, both of them need to reduce their BB totals in '02 (90 and 95 respectively). Following those two, the Indians will trot out some combination of Chuck Finley (5.54 in 113.2), Danys Baez (2.50 in 50.1), Ryan Drese (3.44 in 36.2), Jaret Wright (6.52 in 29.0), Charles Nagy (6.40 in 70.1), and/or Tim Drew (7.97 in 35.0).

The offense will struggle to score runs as only Jim Thome (.291/.416/.624) is a significant threat to leave the yard with every at-bat (49 HR in 2001). Ellis Burks (.280/.369/.542) is a pretty good offensive player, but if he's your second best hitter, you probably don't have a very good lineup. Matt Lawton (.246/.352/.366), picked up in the Alomar trade, could bat first or third to give Thome and Burks some RBI chances and is solid. However, if Lawton bats third, the Indians don't have a credible leadoff hitter, and if he leads off, the Tribe is woefully short on middle-of-the-lineup punch.

The Tribe did sign OF Brady Anderson (.202/.311/.300) this offseason. If he can revert to his mid-'90's form, this acquisition could be worthwhile. However, smart money has Anderson not finishing the year with the team and out of baseball.

Russ Branyon (.232/.316/.468) should finally get 500+ at-bats. He should have solid power numbers to go along with close to 200 strikeouts and his annual low batting average and on-base numbers. He is a significant player to watch, but probably not a difference maker the Indians will be desperate for.

Well Cleveland fans, it was fun while it lasted. The Tribe does have the resources to make another run in the near future, but it will take significant retooling to a rather anemic offense. Look for Cleveland to finish in third around .500 while losing many 1-2, 2-3 games.

Detroit made some moves this offseason that showed that they might be learning; that they figured out that they were not a contender and would begin to rebuild, again. Then they turned around and made a move that can only be described as baffling.

Tony Clark (.287/.374/.481), a switch-hitting first baseman with a line-drive stroke, was the best hitter on the Tigers last season (his OPS was 50 points higher than the next Tiger - .856). While his numbers are not staggering, they are respectable. Furthermore, he was going into the final season of his contract. So while it would have made sense to let him play out the contract and walk (letting the Tigers pick up an extra draft pick from whoever signed him) the Tigers, in their infinite wisdom, decided to cut him.

"Well, Tony really wasn't healthy all that often, and his HR totals were decreasing, and we have some players who need a chance to prove they belong on the big league squad. Besides, we tried to trade him and couldn't find any takers," or so the argument goes ...

Okay, maybe the move isn't that bad. But then, if you're so concerned about getting the youngsters a chance to play, why trade for Dmitri Young (.297/.351/.468 - note how close their numbers are); a switch-hitting first baseman with a line-drive stroke? On top of that, if Clark's contract was so bad you had to cut him, why sign Young to four years at $7 million/per (Clark was making about $5 million/per)? Dmitri can play multiple positions and is a whole 16 months younger ... but then the Tigers have several guys who can play either corner outfield and/or 1B who are much younger and cheaper than either Clark or Young.

I'm not suggesting that Young isn't a good player. He's a much better player than many first-basemen around the league. That being said, he isn't a cornerstone-type player; a player you build the team around.

To further emphasize why the signing was bad, the Tigers have to find at bats for the following players OF/1B/C Robert Fick, 3B/DH Dean Plamer, C/DH Mitch Meluskey, and potentially 1B/DH Eric Munson, and C Brandon Inge, as well.

Keep in mind that Craig Paquette (.282/.326/.465) was brought in to play 3B, and Bobby Higginson (.277/.367/.445) has a large contract and will be assured of one corner OF slot, as well as the aforementioned Dmitri Young.

If you are a rotisserie or fantasy baseball player, don't draft Tiger hitters; Comerica Park is just too big to be conducive for impressive offensive statistics. The pitchers, on the other hand, know that just about any pitch they throw across plate will stay in the yard.

Of course, that doesn't make the Tiger's pitchers good ... Jeff Weaver (4.08 in 229.1) may still improve. He's young enough (25) that he may still have his best season ahead of him and while his home/road splits were not drastic, pitching in Comerica half time has to improve his numbers.

The one Tiger pitcher that I do want on my fantasy team (I hope my fellow league members don't read this) is closer Matt Anderson (4.82 in 56.0). While his ERA is less than impressive, he did convert 22 of 24 save chances and cut his BB total by more than half and lowered his pitches/inning rate. Furthermore, once he stepped into the closer's role, Anderson's ERA plummeted.

Note the lack of pitchers mentioned here. Remember how much I pooh-poohed the Young signing? I didn't think trading for him was a bad idea. Atlanta tried to get Young from Cincinnati at least once, more than that if you believe the rumors. However, Atlanta wouldn't meet Cincy's asking price.

Detroit, after acquiring Young from Cincinnati, could have turned around and traded Young to Atlanta for some of the Braves' young pitching. Detroit would have saved money, would have freed up at-bats for their young players, and would have acquired desperately needed pitching talent. Some teams never learn.

For any Detroit fans out there ... how 'bout them Red Wings?

Kansas City, speaking of teams that never learn ... according to various reports back in October, right at the end of the season, K.C. owner David Glass traveled to the team's final game with the intent of firing Manager Tony Muser. He even made a statement to the press that changes would be made. However, after sitting down with Muser, and GM Allen Baird (who may have also been on the hot seat), Glass kept them both.

And so begins another season of Royals baseball (or is that royally awful baseball?). In fairness, the Royals do have some interesting players. 1B Mike Sweeny (.304/.374/.542) and CF Carlos Beltran (.306/.362/.514) could both be very good players on almost any team.

However, as far as offense goes, that's about it. Only one other regular or semi-regular posted an OPS over .800; Raul Ibanez (.280/.353/.495). No doubt about it, this team will struggle to score runs.

Unfortunately for K.C. fans, while the Royal offense (sounds like a British military action) won't score many runs, there should be plenty of scoring at K.C. games.

One of the modern tenants of pitching is to allow as few walks as possible. Furthermore, a high strikeout rate is also a key to success. So to really stand out, a pitcher would want to have a high K/9 inning rate and a low BB/9 inning rate. Kansas City had eight players who pitched 50+ innings and had a K/9 inning rate over 5.0. Of those eight, only three had BB/9 innings rates below 4.0 (3.0 is considered average or acceptable); Jason Grimsely, 6.83K/9 and 3.14 BB/9 (3.02 ERA in 80.1); Roberto Hernandez, 6.12 K/9 and 3.46 BB/9 (4.12 in 67.2); and Kris Wilson, 5.52 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9 (5.19 in 109.1).

Back to their manager, Muser is known for not being a big fan of teaching patience in hitters. He's also known for being a huge fan of avoiding the strikeout and putting the ball in play. The Royals were last in BB taken (with a 50 BB cushion), and had the fewest SO (by over 70) of any AL team. Yet despite their "success" in Muser-ball, they were tenth in the AL in runs scored. As for pitching, only Texas walked more batters, while only Detroit struck out fewer.

To be successful (other than firing Muser and Baird) K.C. management needs to stress patience to their hitters; and needs to get their pitchers to throw strikes.

One last thing, Mike Sweeny is in the last year of his contract. Baird already traded away Johnny Damon and Jermaine Dye as they were coming up on free agency. While Baird has said there is no way he'll trade Sweeny, if you were Sweeny, would you resign with this team? The Sweeny watch is on ...

Might this team be a candidate for contraction? Baird and Muser are sure running it that way.

Minnesota fans will hear "play ball" on April 1st in Kansas City against the Royals. Since there has been many articles written about contraction this offseason, and since the Twins will be playing baseball this year, I will focus on baseball rather the business of MLB.

The Twins were good last year. Not great, but good; solid. Furthermore, they got there through homegrown talent and thus, they got good cheap. The Twins should again be good, not great, in 2002.

Last year, the Twins were seventh in team ERA and eighth in runs scored in the AL (out of 14). Seeing those statistics, it's somewhat surprising that they had the fifth best record. So to duplicate the 85 wins they had in 2001, it's fairly safe to suggest that they need to do better in both hitting and pitching in 2002.

While there is long-term help on the way, and the first wave does arrive now, it will be a couple or three years before the full effects are realized. Michael Cuddyer (batted .301 with 30 HR in AA) looks to have the inside track for the starting RF job. He will eventually be joined by 1B Justin Morneau, C Joe Mauer (the first pick of the 2001 Amateur Draft), and RHP Adam Johnson (Johnson should arrive in Minnesota either this year or next). While Cuddyer and Johnson could develop into All-Star caliber players, Morneau and Mauer look to be MVP caliber players. The later half of this decade should be very good to the Twins and their fans.

The starting pitching rotation looks to be solid: Brad Radke (3.94 in 226.0), Joe Mays (3.16 in 232.2), Eric Milton (4.32 in 220.2), and Rick Reed (3.48 in 134.2 - who is currently seeking a trade, but will likely remain with the Twins) with the fifth spot up for grabs. The bullpen, however, looks shaky, at best. Eddie Guardado (3.51 in 66.2) will be the closer, and should do fine, but when the starters don't go eight innings, will the rest of the bullpen hold the lead?

Having Cuddyer in RF and DH David Ortiz (.234/.324./475) all year (he was injured and only played 89 games in 2001) should slightly improve their offense, and if Rick Reed is around and if Mays, Milton, and Radke can duplicate or build on last year, this team might be a few wins better. However, remember they did win 85 games last year and an improvement of a few wins only takes them to 88 or 89 wins. 88-89 win season will again be out of the money.

The AL Central will get a lot of attention simply because it is the home of the Twins and because of all the contraction hoopla from the offseason. While many will be disappointed to watch the Twins again fall short of the playoffs, making a small improvement (overall) will be a success. Fans should notice that both the White Sox and the Twins have set themselves up to be very good teams for significant periods of time. The AL Central just became chic.

The White Sox will win the Central going away, with the Twins finishing a solid second, and the Indians nipping at their heels. Detroit and Kansas City will fight a meaningless battle for fourth.

Article courtesy of Sports Central.