The breakout season

By Gary Cozine Sports Central Columnist

"Be it only for a day, it is still a glory without equal to be master of the world just that day." -- Pierre Corneille (1606-1684), French playwright

Recently, while preparing for my fantasy league draft, I was looking through the results from 2001. I wanted to get some idea which players would be the first to go. Skimming down the list, two players caught my eye:

Round 8: Luis Gonzalez

Round 25 (the final round): Bret Boone

In retrospect, letting a guy like Boone rot at the bottom of the draft order like that kid who wore the "Jedis Do It With Force" T-shirt in the neighborhood pickup games seems sheer insanity. But, who knew Boone would have the kind of year that he did in 2001?

How does this happen? It's one thing when a known entity has a great season -- no one is shocked anymore when Sammy Sosa hits 60 homeruns -- but it's something completely different when a player you've been vaguely aware of for years suddenly transforms himself into a star.

By my reckoning, there are four different types of breakout seasons:

The Prodigy

These are the players who are barely old enough to shave, yet manage to play like veterans superstars.

Two recent examples are Albert Pujols in St. Louis and Juan Pierre in Colorado.

While playing four different positions for the Cardinals, Pujols posted these numbers: .329/37/130 (hitting percentage, homeruns, RBIs) as a rookie.

Pierre can't compete with that kind of firepower, but he hit .327 and swiped 46 bases in his first full season last year and could develop into one of the game's great leadoff hitters.

The Career Minor-Leaguer

These guys are too old to be considered traditional rookies, but haven't seen much major league playing time.

Often, they kick around in the minors waiting for a job to open at their position.

Paul Lo Duca (L.A.) -- who never got more than 50 at-bats in a season until he was 29-years-old -- must have begun to wonder whether he would ever get his shot.

Last year while playing first, catcher, and some outfield, he posted a .320/25/90 line.

The Injured Gem

These are the players for whom talent has never been a question -- it's just a matter of whether they can stay out of the ICU long enough to play.

In nine seasons, Cliff Floyd has managed to break the 125-game barrier only twice.

Last year, he stayed healthy enough to play in 149 games and put up some great numbers: .317/31/103.

And Larry Walker in Colorado would probably have sewn up a spot in Cooperstown already if he could just stay healthy.

There's nothing this guy can't do.

A career .315 hitter with 200+ stolen bases, 300+ homeruns, and five gold gloves.

It's a shame when players like these guys can't stay on the field.

The Anomaly

For my money, this is the most interesting category of all. It is comprised of players who "bust out" and put up MVP numbers in the middle of an average major league career.

Fantasy baseball, and to some extent baseball in general, is made by the breakout season.

Every once in awhile, a veteran player has a season when everything comes together, the ball slows down, his bat speed picks up, and he gets a glorious moment in the sun.

These guys fascinate me -- suddenly, a guy you thought you had pegged, defies all expectations.

A good historical example is Roger Maris.

Although Maris had made the All-Star team in 1959 and 1960, he would have been long forgotten if it weren't for his 1961 season.

It was a fairly quick drop-off after that, and he would never hit more than 33 homeruns in a season for the rest of his career.

Last year, I was the one who picked Luis Gonzalez in round eight.

I had some idea of his potential -- in 1999, he had put together a 30-game hit streak and in 2000 he batted .311 and had a career-high mark in homeruns.

Clearly, he had been increasing his production over the past few years and I expected him to put up some decent numbers, but I had no idea what lay ahead in 2001.

Keep in mind that he was nine years into his career before he hit 20+ homeruns in a season.

Last year, in his 12th year of Major League service, he nearly tripled that number.

I thought Gonzalez was a steal in round eight, but in truth, he would have been a steal in round two.

And Bret Boone, who could have seen it coming?

I'll have to ask around in my league, but my guess is that he wasn't actually pre-chosen by the manager.

In other words, he wasn't even picked in the 25th round -- the computer selected him as part of the default rankings.

Going into last year, Boone had a career batting average of .255 and had never driven in 100 runs.

Last year, he did this: .331-37-141.

How can you explain those numbers? What changed? New trainer? New diet? Did he switch to a high-fiber cereal?

It was obvious that he had bulked up and perhaps that partially accounts for his jump in power, but you don't get a better batting average simply by bench-pressing Volkswagons in the weight room.

Something clicked for him last year and a guy who's probably past the midpoint in his career turned into a new player.

If you were able to accurately predict which players were about to have breakout seasons, you would be making pretty decent money as a general manager somewhere or, at the very least, cleaning up in your fantasy league.

Who will be this year's Bret Boone? I'm not sure, but it's one of the things that makes the game worth watching.

Interesting side note: On the subject of sluggers... it's interesting to note that up until last year, Barry Bonds -- a guy who has never been considered a sleeper -- had never hit 50 homeruns. Last year, of course, he hit 73 to break the record set by Mark McGwire.

Article courtesy of Sports Central.