Predictions -- What the National League has in store for 2002

With Opening Day just hours away, it's that time for countless baseball writers across the country to put a foot in their collective mouths and make predictions. This writer is no exception.

So, here are my predictions for the 2002 National League:

Standings

N.L. East N.L. Central N.L. West

1. Mets 1. Astros 1. Diamondbacks

2. Braves 2. Cardinals 2. Dodgers

3. Marlins 3. Cubs 3. Giants

4. Phillies 4. Brewers 4. Rockies

5. Expos 5. Pirates 5. Padres

6. Reds

N.L. East

All good things must come to an end, and the Atlanta Braves' 10-year reign atop the National League East will end in 2002. Alas, they will still make the playoffs.

Despite having just the third best rotation in their own division, the New York Mets are just too powerful and boast too good a bullpen not to win this division.

The Braves' outfield (Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones and Gary Sheffield) is arguably the best offensive outfield in the majors.

As always, though, the Braves will win with pitching.

John Smoltz is now the full-time closer and the ageless duo of Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine will once again be good for 35-38 victories combined.

However, the reason the Braves will be unseated as N.L. East champs is that Kevin Millwood's best years appear to be behind him and, even though number four starter Jason Marquis appears primed to follow in the footsteps of Maddux and Glavine, Albie Lopex is not as good as the man he is replacing, John Burkett.

Burkett (12-12, 3.04 ERA in 2001) played as big a part as anyone on the Braves in their 2001 division title race, and that includes the future Hall of Famer's Maddux and Glavine.

What's interesting in the East is the Florida Marlins, who own the division's best rotation, but also it's youngest.

Depending on the maturation of the Marlins' young guns, Florida could push the Braves for second place.

The Phillies don't have the pitching to compete this season, but they'll score plenty of runs, thanks to Scott Rolen playing for a contract and Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu becoming superstars.

As for Montreal, their farewell tour begins Monday, April 1st.

N.L. Central

It would be easy to call the N.L. Central the best division in baseball, but then you remember the hapless Reds and the Pirates reside in the Central's cellar.

If anything, this is the most top-heavy division in all of baseball, with the Astros, Cardinals and Cubs all legitimate pennant contenders, let alone contenders for the division crown.

If Roy Oswalt (4-0, 0.58 ERA this spring), Wade Miller (4-1, 0.50), and the grossly underrated Shane Reynolds pitch the way they're capable of, no team in the Central can hang with the Astros, whose setup man-closer combination of Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner remind many in baseball of the Yankees' Mariano Rivera and John Wetteland tandem in the mid-90s.

The Cards have the best lineup in the division, but their pitching remains a question mark.

Matt Morris (22-8, 3.16) proved in 2001 that he's a bona fide ace and Darryl Kile (16-11, 3.09) looked as good as he's looked since his days with Houston.

But, Woody Williams is 35-years-old, Garrett Stephenson hasn't pitched since the 2000 season, and Andy Benes, he of the 7.38 ERA in 2001, beat out Bud Smith for the final spot in the rotation.

The Cubs' success lies in the arm of Kerry Wood, whose time to become a consistent ace has arrived.

Jon Lieber won't win 20 games again, but he won't have to if Wood is consistent.

No matter how good a pitching coach Dave Stewart is, and many feel he's the best, no one can turn Milwaukee's staff into a division winner.

Last season, the American League West boasted two 100-win teams.

Thanks to the Reds and the Pirates, 2002 could see the NL Central "boast" two 100-loss teams.

N.L. West

Age. Age. Age.

Much was made last season of the Arizona Diamondbacks' aging roster.

However, it's funny how much a World Series ring has a way of silencing critics.

But, is it realistic to think that Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, who both seemingly willed the D'backs to a World Series win on their way to becoming the Fall Classic's co-MVPs, can do it again?

Johnson, 38, and Schilling, 35, might not have as much energy the second time around, nevertheless, Arizona is still the best team the division has to offer.

The loss of Matt Williams hurts (he fractured his leg the first week of spring training and is scheduled for a late-July return at the earliest), if for no other reason than 36-year-old Jay Bell, whose .248 batting average in 2001 was the worst he's ever posted over a full season, is now the regular third baseman.

Two young D'backs to watch: righty Miguel Batista, who thrived in the playoff spotlight, and closer Byung Hyun Kim, whose just glad the Yankees didn't move to the N.L. West in the offseason.

The Dodgers' season relies on Kevin Brown. If he stays healthy, they'll compete, if not, they have no chance.

The Giants' lineup, especially with the newly acquired Reggie Sanders, will hit the long ball. But pitching, especially the rotation, is a Giant question mark.

Livan Hernandez' ERA, much like his weight, skyrocketed in 2001, and the former ace of the staff now finds himself behind Russ Ortiz and Jason Schmidt in the rotation.

As for the Rockies, at press time they still planned to play in Coors Field this season, meaning two things:

1) Their pitchers and hitters will have inflated numbers, and 2) They won't make the playoffs.

The Padres will once again showcase a potent offense thanks to Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko (not to mention rookie third baseman Sean Burroughs), but any team that list Bobby Jones (8-19, 5.72 ERA in 2001) as its number two starter is strapped for pitching.

Playoff Predictions

Division Winners: Mets, Astros, Diamondbacks Wild Card: Braves N.L. Pennant: Diamondbacks

Postseason Awards

N.L. MVP: Mike Piazza, New York Mets N.L. CY Young: Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros N.L. Rookie of the Year: Sean Burroughs, San Diego Padres