MLB: Overrated and potential one-year wonders of 2002

The best time of the year is finally here: March.

With NCAA Conference tournaments, Selection Sunday, March Madness, Spring Training and fantasy baseball draft preparation, March has it all!

As you prepare your keeper lists and draft strategies, I'd like to offer up my list of players that are sure to be overrated at drafts and auctions all across the nation.

Paul Lo Duca, C, LA: With catcher easily being the thinnest position, Lo Duca is sure to go high despite only putting 3/4 of a season worth of good numbers together. His 25 homers, 90 runs batted in, and .320 average has earned him an undeserving No. 2 rating behind Mike Piazza and maybe Jason Kendall in NL Only leagues, with Ivan Rodriguez and maybe Jorge Posada surpassing him in mixed league rankings. Lo Duca's previous career high for at-bats before his 460 in 2001, was a mighty 95 in 1999. He only finally got a chance at age 30, and I'm sure it wasn't an accident. I predict that Lo Duca, despite a cool first name, will hit .285 with 19 home runs and 70 runs batted in while playing all year, which isn't worth anything above a sixth round pick, and certainly isn't "keeper-worthy."

Albert Pujols, 3B, 1B, OF, STL: Keep in mind, this article is about players that will be overrated, not guys that will automatically flop after a solid 2001 season. Pujols was amazing in 2001, but he's still young and may've played over his head. Lucky for Pujols, he could drop 10 homers, 30 runs batted and 30 points of the batting average and still have a remarkable season. His eligibility at first and outfield is overrated because both of those positions are deep. At a thin third, Pujols is definitely a keeper (especially in auction league since I'm sure he didn't command a high price last season), but wait until at least the third round before drafting him. At age 22, a "sophomore slump" or fluke is hardly out of the question.

Adam Dunn, OF, CIN: Dunn had a great showing during his call-up last season as he blasted 19 home runs in just 244 at-bats, but I'd like to see at least half a season, let alone a full season, of solid production before I put a 5th round pick into him. In one mock draft, I saw Dunn selected ahead of Geoff Jenkins, Sean Casey, Jeromy Burnitz (Adam Dunn Sr.?), and Fred McGriff. In another, he was selected over Jose Vidro, Jim Edmonds, Jason Kendall, plus everyone listed from the first draft. That's just ridiculous. If you want to bank on 66 games of production, albeit good production, over years of proven numbers, go right ahead, but I'm not sharing my prize money with you.

Jason Isringhausen, RP, STL: Izzy has returned to a league that, overall, he hasn't fared well in. Not only that, but he's only had one great year. Even in 2000, when he saved 33 games, he had a 3.78 ERA. Closers always seem to be a premium, and I expect this year to be no different, but go for the proven guy before you over pay for Izzy.

Bret Boone, 2B, SEA: You all knew he'd be in this list and with good reason. Boone hadn't come anywhere near his career high's of 37 homers, 141 runs batted, and .330 average in his 10 year career before 2001. It wasn't a steady climb into stardom a la Luis Gonzalez, it was a quantum leap that won't last into 2002. With numbers somewhere in the "26 homer, 93 RBI, and .280 average" range, Boone is still going to be a productive player, but not a late 1st-early 2nd round pick.

Joel Pineiro, SP, SEA: Pineiro burst onto the scene by going 5-2 with a 2.36 ERA in 11 starts last season and was a wonderful free agent pickup for owners, but those expecting anything close to a sub-3.00 ERA and a 71 percent win percentage are going to very disappointed. Assuming he wins the 5th starter job, Pineiro will put up a record around .500 (13-11) with an ERA nearly double his 2K1 total (4.35). One mock draft had Pineiro taken right before Jeff Weaver. Wow.

Aaron Sele, SP, ANA: After a wonderful season by Sele-standards (15-5, 3.60 ERA), Sele moves from having the best offense and defense behind him in Seattle to Anaheim. At 32, Sele won't be getting better and thus I see no more than 15 wins, but almost an entire run added to his ERA (4.40). Take into consideration age and the team around him before grabbing Sele, and if a flier like Roy Halladay or Doug Davis is out there, look there first.

Cliff Floyd, OF, FLA: Given that the 149 games were the second highest (153) in Floyd's eight year career, predicting a breakdown in a 2K2 isn't a stretch. That said, he's certainly a risk, but with 31 home runs and 103 runs batted in, owners are sure to overlook his past seasons that were cut short and draft him in one of the first four rounds. No matter how many games he plays, his average will be right around .300, but if you think I'm bidding high or using a top pick on a guy who's played 100+ games only 5 times in 8 years, you're nuts. Give me Edmonds or Drew or a much cheaper Brian Jordan.

Frank Catalanotto, OF, TEX: Flexibility in some leagues (1B, 2B, 3B) coupled with the high average make him attractive, but he's not going to hit .331 again and he doesn't do a whole lot of anything else. He's a great player to have on your team, but that doesn't mean you need to over pay to get him. If you miss the boat on Cat and want a poor man's Catalanotto, look to Minnesota's Denny Hocking and spend the dollar (or two) or the late round pick to get him.

A few others:

* Paul Abbott, SP, SEA: He will not go 17-4 again this year. * Derek Jeter, SS, NYY: Even at a thin SS position, Jeter isn't a first round pick. His name has earned him that distinction, not his statistics. * Ugueth Urbina, RP, BOS: His ERA has been below 3.63 once ('98) in his career. * Bud Smith, SP, STL: The no hitter makes him quite enticing, but he's been falling in mock drafts and doesn't have huge price tag for a reason, so don't go crazy.

Have a comment/suggestion? Send it to me at psporer24@yahoo.com

Next article: Undervalued/Sleeper picks for 2002