Fantasy Sports: 2004 Fantasy Points League Preview - SS

Fantasy owners are well aware of the pool of shortstop talent in this year's draft. For the second consecutive year in 2003, the shortstop position produced the American League's MVP in Alex Rodriguez while in the National League, Edgar Renteria may have also won the award if it wasn't for the spectacular seasons teammate Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds, and Gary Sheffield put together in 2003.

Certainly, Rodriguez and Renteria were dominant last year at the position, but they weren't the only standouts here. Miguel Tejeda followed a banner 2002 MVP season with another dominating season , while Normar Garciaparra, AL Rookie of the Year Angel Berroa, Rafael Furcal, Derek Jeter, Orlando Cabrera, and Florida's Alex Gonzalez all had productive campaigns.

As we forecast the upcoming 2004 season, there is about 15 very good shortstops to choose from, including a good mix of established stars and emerging talents like Rookie of the Year Candidates Bobby Crosby and Japanese import Kaz Matsui. A good strategy heading into the draft should be to select at least one of these players early on or position scarcity will come into play. Don't get stuck in your draft having to choose among a David Eckstein or a Carlos Guillen as your starting shortstop.

Let's take a closer look inside the shortstop position.

2004 Projected SS Fantasy Points League Statistics: 144G / 527 AB / 78 Runs / 28 Doubles / 5 Triples / 13 Home Runs / 62 RBI / 14 SB / 45 Walks / .274 AVG

League using a Fantasy Points system of: "1 Point" for every Run, Single, RBI, and BB; "2 Points" for every Double and SB; "3 Points" for each Triple; and "4 Points" for each Home Run; Total Points Projected for an average SS in 2004 = 434 (3.01PPG)

2004 SS Rankings

1. Alex Rodriguez, NYY (763 Total, 4.77 PPG) - A-Rod is hands down the most dynamic baseball player in the game and the best Fantasy player available. If your not drafting him first overall, your seriously mistaken. In the last three seasons as a Ranger, Rodriguez averaged 162 games, a .305 BA, 52 HR, 132 RBI, 127 Runs, 15 SB, and earned the AL MVP award in 2003. Now that the trade rumors are behind him, look for a typical A-Rod season as the new Yankees third baseman. Expect another MVP season of .309-49-133-14 and 135+ runs in '04. Are you sure you want Pujols, Soriano, Beltran, or Helton? Go ahead, I'll stick with "THE" best with my 1st Overall Pick!

2. Miguel Tejada, BAL (590, 3.69) - The 2002 American League MVP played like a complete bust early on in 2003, hitting just .161 with four home runs through the month of April. However, he responded with a .303-23-93 clip the rest away and now that he's in Camden Yards for at least the next six years, expect more MVP-type .284-33-111-8 numbers for the 27-year old in 2004.

3. Derek Jeter, NYY (579, 3.73) - The Yankees' captain suffered through an agonizing 2003 campaign playing in a career-worst 119 games. Jeter, lost the first month and half of the season following an ugly dislocated shoulder injury in the season opener and also played through a ruptured tendon injury to his thumb the remainder of the season after that. With all these ailments, Jeter still "managed" to hit just .324-10-52. Now completely healed, expect another banner season of .321-14-72-22 with 126 runs scored as the Yankees' new leadoff man.

4. Nomar Garciaparra, BOS (554, 3.82) - Garciaparra is one of the game's best hitters, and despite the injury risk, he is a good bet for a .314 average, 24 home runs, 90 runs batted in, 43 doubles, and six triples, provided he tops 600 at bats in 2004. With these numbers, why is ranked so low? This Spring, Garciaparra has been sidelined with mild tendinitis in his right Achilles' tendon and there is doubt in Red Sox's camp that he will even be ready for opening day. This is becoming more and more common, so it is recommended to proceed with caution when drafting him.

5. Edgar Renteria, STL (545, 3.63) - In case you forgot, the last time we saw Renteria he was finishing up a fabulous MVP-caliber season as he set career-highs in average (.330), RBI (100), runs (96), steals (34), doubles (47), slugging percentage (.480) and on-base percentage (.394). The only question as opening day looms, is where will he hit in one of the NL's best lineups? At 28-years old and in the prime of his career, thus look for the Cards to move him into the No. 2 or No. 3 spot and expect Renteria to produce a solid .289-15-84-27 with 36 doubles and 96 runs scored season.

6. Angel Berroa, KC (538, 3.43) - The 2003 American League Rookie of the Year, heads the young shortstop class in this season's rankings. After an outstanding season with which the Royals finally gave him a shot, expect more of the same in 2004. Is there a sophomore slump on the horizon? Certainly not! Berroa is a keeper and playing half his games in hitter's paradise (Kaufman Field) against weaker Central Division staffs, will only inflate his numbers. Last year was not a fluke, but a consistent measure of things to come with a .286-17-64-34 and 96 runs season as the Royals leadoff hitter.

7. Rafael Furcal, ATL (536, 3.46) - Following three enigmatic seasons as the Braves everyday leadoff hitter, Furcal finally lived up to his lofty Fantasy expectations with a breakout .292-15-61-25 and 130 runs scored in 2003! Equally impressive, Furcal raised his on-base base percentage to a respectable .352, while improving his K to BB ratio (76:60) over season's past. At 26, he should continue to improve in '04, but with the free agent departures of Gary Sheffield and Javy Lopez, Furcal's numbers will even out to the tune of a .285-10-48-34 with 32 doubles, 10 triples, and 99 runs scored '04 season.

8. Orlando Cabrera, MON (533, 3.33) - Highly regarded shortstop in Fantasy circles brings solid run producing abilities to a historical non-power position. In 2003, Cabrera played in 162 games, setting career-highs in batting average (.297), home runs (17), and runs scored (95), while stealing 24 bases in 26 chances. At 29-years old, the "veteran" shortstop will bat fifth for the Expos and deliver another outstanding .280-16-81-24 and 44 doubles season.

9. Kazuo Matsui, NYM (517, 3.33) - The little "Matsui" will play his rookie season in the Big Apple as the Mets everyday shortstop, with Jose Reyes moving to second base. The 1998 Japanese Pacific League MVP is considered by Fantasy experts as the next Ichiro, with 20-25 home run power. In 2004, Matsui is projected as the leadoff hitter and will bat in front of the talented Reyes, Mike Piazza, and Cliff Floyd so runs should not be a problem. With this said, expect a Rookie of the Year-type season of .289-14-68-28 with 30 doubles, five triples, and 93 runs scored in 2004.

10. Jimmy Rollins, PHI (531, 3.31) - Few shortstops have more talent than the Phillies' Jimmy Rollins, but since his breakout '01 season the 25-year old shortstop has fallen into a sea of mediocrity averaging more than 100 strikeouts and a porous .317 on-base percentage. In 2004, Rollins will no longer bat leadoff which should help his number considerably, batting in the No. 2 hole ahead of Bobby Abreau and Jim Thome. Expect a bust out sleeper '04 season of .277-12-56-32 with 34 doubles, nine triples, and 90 runs scored.

11. Mike Young, TEX (452, 2.92) - Young was arguably the biggest Fantasy surprise in 2003, setting career marks in average (.306), home runs (14), RBI (72), and stolen bases (13). He did, however, failed to improve upon his patience, striking out 103 trips to the plate while walking just 36 times. Many owners believe that another season similiar to '03 is on the horizon for the young middle infielder, but Young will have difficulties in 2004 with a .273-10-54 clip while adjusting to the new shortstop position.

12. Jose Reyes, NYM (451, 3.14) - As a 2004 rookie, Reyes settled in as the Mets' everyday shortstop until a sprained ankle forced him to miss the remainder of the season. This season he will be at second base, along side, rookie shortstop sensation Kaz Matsui, and hit second in the batting order behind rookie ahead of a healthy Mike Piazza, so expect more of the same -- average, speed, and some power from this Fantasy delight. The problem is, he should be rated higher, but another injury this Spring makes him doubtful for Opening Day. If healthy, expect more than 500 at bats and a .279-8-60 with 30+ steals this season. And if not, buyer be warned.

13. Melvin Mora, BAL (447, 3.08) - Despite playing in just 96 games in 2003, Mora still hit 15 HR with 48 RBI, and 68 runs. He also led the AL in hitting for most of the first half, until knee and hand injuries caused him to miss more than 60 games. The versatile Mora started in the outfield, at shortstop, at second base, and at first base last season. In 2004, he will again be on the move, slated to take over third base position for the departed Tony Batista and should hit a respectable .274 with 17 HR and 59 RBI as the leadoff hitter in a much improved O's line-up.

14. Alex Cintron, ARZ (441, 3.03) - Those owners fortunate enough in claiming Cintron off the waiver wire following his May 7 call-up last season, happily rode his .317-13-51 Fantasy line the remainder of the season. With the signing of Alomar and Sexson, Cintron will produce as the everyday D-backs shortstop, batting fifth in a good lineup. He will not come cheap and expect another solid .286-15-72 season in the desert.

15. Rich Aurilia, SEA (437, 3.01) - Since his brilliant MVP-caliber 2001 season, Aurilia's numbers and health has steadily declined which is the reason he is so far down the rankings. If playing in Pac Bell hurt is power numbers (28 HR in the last two seasons, compared to 37 HR in '01) than how will he fare in Seattle's Safeco Field? The main difference is half Aurilia's games will be played on the road in more hitter-friendly environments against lesser tier AL pitching. Thus, expect the Brooklyn "kid" to build off his .312 second half numbers and become an instant fan favorite with a bounce back .284-17-69 season in 2004.

16. Bobby Crosby, OAK (436, 3.00) - Favorite to capture the his second Rookie of the Year award in consecutive seasons. Crosby, a dynamite five-tool talent, blazed Pacific Coast League pitching at Triple "A" Sacramento last year, hitting a robust .308 with 22 homers and 90 RBI in earning the league's Rookie of the Year award. He will soon become one of baseball's best shortstops for many years to come, perhaps beginning in 2004. So expect nothing less than a .279-12-65-15 season from the young shortstop.

Others:

17. Jose Valentin, CWS (434, 3.10) - Last seaon, the switch-hitting Valentin's average (.237) dipped significantly for the third consecutive year, although he did eclipse 20+ HR and 70+ RBI for the fourth straight season. If your seeking a well-rounded shortstop he is certainly not your guy, but if you need power from this position, Valentin is a safe bet for the low average, a few steals, and better than average power numbers. Expect him to improve upon last season's average and continue his power surge with a .248-25-67-7 season in 2004.

18. Christian Guzman, MIN (410, 2.93) - Guzman has all the tools to be a top tier shortstop but injuries have dwindled his stolen base numbers and Fantasy value to a point which just makes him an adequate backup in mixed and AL-only leagues. Strangely enough, Guzman struggled mightily in the No.2 spot, hitting just .238-0-16, compared to a productive .301-3-32 Fantasy line in the No. 9 hole. A baseball guru can make any player look good, I guess, but look at his trends and Guzman can only hope for at best a .264-6-55-20 with 11 triples campaign in 2004. Also, keep in mind that Guzman was forced to shut down during winter ball this past off season due to a sore shoulder.

19. Julio Lugo, TB (400, 2.85) - After being released by the Astros early last season following a public domestic incident, Lugo impressed his new Devil Rays' team and Fantasy owners alike, hitting .275-15-53 with 10 steals in just 117 games. At 28, he should continue to thrive in 2004 with a .278-14-52 and 14 SB season.

20. David Eckstein, ANA (400, 2.76) - Following two outstanding seasons as the Angles' everyday shortstop and leadoff hitter, Eckstein scuffled through a miserable injury-plagued 2003 campaign, hitting just .252-3-31-16 in 120 games. In order, to maintain any value this season he must reach at least 145 games to deliver a .279-6-48-19 year. As long as he is healthy and keeps his position, Eckstein could be a valuable pick-up, especially in steals and runs scored categories. That is a big "if."

21. Alex Gonzalez, CHC (374, 2.58) - The Cubs' Gonzalez is the definition of a Fantasy enigma. Each season, A-Gone posts respectable 15-20 home run with 65-75 runs batted in and runs scored production, but despite his power potential it is hard to ignore the pathetic batting average (career-low .228 in '03), on-base percentage (career-low .295 in '03), and strikeouts (123 in '03 compared to just 122 hits). His upside is to the tune of .248-16-65-6 in 2004.

22. Desi Relaford, KC (365, 2.70) - The versatile Relaford plays everywhere, including as the starting second baseman for the Royals in 2004. He is a unique player that can do almost anything including hit for some power while driving in runs, however, his unique Fantasy Value is in the stolen base and runs scored department. Look for a solid .260-6-44-15 this season. Best of the Rest:

23. Carlos Guillen DET (365, 2.60) - Despite being one of the most injury-prone players in baseball, Guillen is a consistent and unspectacular ML hitter (.276-7-52-4 in '03 for the Mariners)that simply does the job when available. Expect him to play at best 140 games for the lowly Tigers, providing solid contributions of .266-8-55-5 with a couple of stints on the Disabled List in 2004.

24. Jack Wilson, PIT (380, 2.45) - The slick fielding shortstop showed steady improvement at the plate in 2003, hitting a respectable .282-4-29 in the second half while putting together a career-high 17-game hitting streak. The young 26-year old has plenty of upside, but he is still a few years away from moving up in the rankings. Expect Wilson to play everyday and produce a consistent .260-9-59-6 season for the Bucs in 2004.

25. Alex Gonzalez, FLA (347, 2.31) - The other Gonzalez will be overvalued on draft day because he is coming off his best year (.256-18-77) as a big leaguer and at 27, many are expecting an even better year. In 2003, he was arguably one of the top players at the position before the All-Star break, hitting .288-12-53, but stumbled in the second half with a .208-6-24 Fantasy line. A-Gone will have a job in 2004 because of his slick fielding glove and strong arm, but don't expect him to close to duplicating last season's numbers. At best, he's a Fantasy liability that will deliver a .244-12-60 season.

26. Adam Everett, HOU (344, 2.45) - The former Olympian stepped into the starting shortstop position last year following Julio Lugo's release and hit .256 with a surprising eight home runs and 51 runs batted while batting eighth in the Astros' lineup. Everett is already among the best fielding shortstops around, in just 177 career games, and will continue to improve as a hitter with more at bats and once he begins to add some strength to his slender 160 lb. Frame. Expect him to post a .260-9-48-12 season in 2004.

27. Royce Clayton, COL (336, 2.49) - Clayton is one of the best defensive shortstops of all-time and will likely be the everyday starter for the Coors Field Rockies this season. He will strengthen a team that is already strong up the middle with the likes of CF Preston Wilson, C Charles Johnson, and NL Rookie of the Year candidate Aaron Miles. From a Fantasy perspective, however, Clayton is a proven liability at the plate, hitting just .228-11-39-5 in 146 games with the Brewers last season. At 34, do not look for a dramatic increase in his numbers despite playing 81 games at Coors Field, instead air on the side of caution and expect a .251-10-50-7 2004 season.

28. Chris Woodward, TOR (334, 2.67) - Woodward is the the Jays' everyday starting shortstop and at 27, he has plenty of upside in becoming a solid Major Leaguer at the plate and with the glove. Look for him to reach double digits in home runs (12) and safely hit at least .268 with 55 RBI and 60 runs scored in 2004.

29. Khalil Greene, SD (308, 2.20) - The former Clemson University standout will be the Padres shortstop for many years to come, beginning in 2004. With just more one year minor league experience, a quality Fantasy season may be too much in hoping for. Although Greene is tearing up the Cactus League with a couple of homers and a team-best 14 RBI, expect Greene to struggle early on and improve as the season progresses. He will deliver at least a .254-9-48-9 season in 2004.

30. Omar Vizquel, CLE - Failed a physical on his surgically repaired right knee, costing him a chance to play for his former-Mariners team in December. Now, just a few months later, Vizquel holds no Fantasy value in the twilight of his career. Look elsewhere.

31. Brian Roberts, BAL - The O's tandem of Brian Roberts and Jerry Hairston offer tremendous value, collectively at the second base position. If healthy, Hairston would have been the starter and a sleeper this season, hitting in the high .270's with 30+ steals, but injuries are once again plaguing the youngster and it is looking more likely that Roberts will begin the season at second base. Both speedsters hold tremendous value in stolen base and runs categories and, again, both will not have enough at bats to make any sort of impact this season, unless traded to another team.

32. B.J. Upton, TB - Upton is an excellent sleeper and steal in 2004, if Julio Lugo or Rey Sanchez don't pan out. The 2nd overall pick in the 2002 amateur draft, hit a robust .302-7-46-38 for Class A Charleston last season and competed at a high level in the Arizona Fall League this off season showing that he is ready for big leagues this season.

33. J.J. Hardy, MIL - One of the Brewers franchise's top prospects, who will be called up sometime after the All-Star break. Watch his progress early on in Triple A because 2004 could be the year that Hardy makes his Fantasy splash. Sleepers: Worth Your Time & Dime

* Kazuo Matsui, NYM - Little "Matsui" will give you a good Fantasy mix of Ichiro speed (25-30 SB) and Hideki Matsui home run (15-20 HR) power in 2004. How does that sound for a late or middle round pick?

* Jimmy Roliins, PHI - The talented young shortstop will be an affordable sleeper option on draft day, batting ahead of Bobby Abreau and Jim Thome while hitting in the No. 2 spot following the up and coming Marlon Byrd. Expect a return back to his 2001 prominence.

* Melvin Mora, BAL - Missed more than 60 games in 2003 with various ailments, but did lead the league in hitting for much of the first half. Now healthy, the O's leadoff hitter is fit to impress in 2004.

* Bobby Crosby, OAK - Will be the 2004 AL Rookie of the Year and will post similar numbers to last year's rookie sensation Angel Berroa. Currently, ranked in the top half of all shortstops and may very well be a top fiver by season's end.

* Julio Lugo, TB - Lugo brings a good mix of 15-20 home run and 15-20 steal potential to a traditionally meek power position. I'll take those numbers for my 20th to 25th overall pick.

* Jack Wilson, PIT - His 17-game hitting streak and continuous improvement at the plate over the course of 2004 are indications that the young shortstop is approaching is prime which is good news for bargain hunting Fantasy owners.

* B.J. Upton, TB / J.J. Hardy, MIL - Two of the ML's top shortstop prospects who will make an immediate Fantasy impactlater this season.

Busts: Let me to you about the Dangers

* Nomar Garciaparra, BOS - The shortstop position is stacked with both power and speed, thus selecting Garciaparra as the No.2 shortstop or anywhere in the top five for that matter is too much of a risk for this Fantasy guru. Instead, draft a Cabrera or Berroa in later rounds, expecting Garciaparra-type production for a better value.

* Michael Young, TEX - The free-swinging, impatient Rangers' shortstop will frustrate owners this season, following a standout 2003 season. Until he develops into more of a consistent threat at the plate, Young is no more than a second-tier middle infielder.

* Jose Reyes, NYM - Tremendous young middle infielder who will tail off in 2004 not due to lack of talent, but because of his durability in the field. Proceed with caution, and make sure he's healthy before drafting Reyes.

* Cristian Guzman, MIN - Every year, owners expect a breakout season from this five tool-caliber talent. Decent option in AL-only leagues, but Guzman will continue the trend of Fantasy disappointment and shortstop bust in 2004.

* Alex Gonzalez, FLA - Breakout season or more fitting a breakout first half in 2203, will have many owners salivating over the World Series champion shortstop in NL-only leagues. At best, he is a .240-.250 hitter with 10-15 home runs in 2004, making him a bust if you're expecting him to duplicate last year's numbers.

Mr. Consistency: Safe Bets for 2004

* Alex Rodriguez, NYY * Miguel Tajada, BAL * Derek Jeter, NYY * Angel Berroa, KC * Orlando Cabrera, MON * Jack Wilson, PIT