MLB: Can a lack of pitching overshadow a lack of Manny?

As spring training winds down and Opening Day looms in its wings two giant questions remain hanging over the heads of the Cleveland Indians: can Juan Gonzalez fill the void in right field left by the departed Manny Ramirez and can the Indians win with their pitching?

While many in baseball might think the former is the real issue for the Tribe, the latter question and its subsequent answer could prove to be the biggest obstacle the Indians face if they hope to return to the playoffs after a difficult 2000 campaign that saw them not win the AL Central for the first time since 1995.

Despite coming off his worst season as a professional, don't expect Juan Gonzalez to be the Juan Gonzalez Tiger's fans came to know and hate. For the Tigers, who sent prized prospect Gabe Kapler and several other young players to the Texas rangers for the 30-year-old Gonzalez prior to the 2000 season, Gonzalez was a bust, producing his lowest batting average (.289) and lowest homerun total (22) since 1994 while knocking in the fewest runs (67) since 1990, when he played just 25 games for Texas.

But Gonzalez' numbers didn't take a hit simply because his time had past. Rather, Gonzalez, who was limited to just 115 games due to injury, was playing in Comerica Park, the Tigers' new stadium that was built more for the Tigers' weak pitching staff than its potent offense.

Now that Gonzalez is in Cleveland, where he has made a career out of destroying Indians pitching, his numbers should go up. Another key factor to consider when watching Gonzalez in 2001 will be a potential huge contract he can earn if he returns to his 1998 form, when he hit .318 with 45 home runs, 50 doubles and 157 RBI in 154 games. This offseason, Gonzalez took a one-year, $10 million contract from the Tribe despite being offered $143 million to stay in Detroit.

While Gonzalez, who will be 32-years-old by the time he signs his next contract, won't demand A-Rod or Ramirez-type dollars, somewhere in the $15-$17 million per season range won't be a far stretch if he can return to 1998 form.

The Tribe also faces the pending free agency of center fielder Kenny Lofton after the 2001 season. Much like Gonzalez, Lofton is coming off a very disappointing 2000 campaign. At .369, Lofton's on-base percentage was the worst it's been since 1995 and his .278 batting average was his worst since he played just 20 games for Houston in 1991. Lofton's base stealing has also taken a sharp decline in the last two seasons, as his 55 combined stolen bases over that span are just one more than he had in all of 1998. While the 75 stolen bases Lofton had in 1996 is probably a stretch for a man who will be 34 in May, the Tribe is counting on Lofton to at least reach the 50-steal plateau while getting his on-base percentage back up to .400.

If Lofton can accomplish both of these things while hitting close to .300, the potent Cleveland offense will become a lot more dangerous and Lofton might have a chance at breaking his career-high of 132 runs scored.

With two key players in the offense playing for contracts, the biggest question left for the Indians is pitching. And what a difficult question to answer it is. Despite perennially injured starters Charles Nagy and Jaret Wright back on the disabled list to start the 2001 season, Cleveland's projected rotation of Bartolo Colon, Chuck Finley, Dave Burba, C.C. Sabathia and Steve Karsay doesn't look that bad on the surface.

Colon, Finley and Burba combined for 47 wins and nearly 600 innings pitched last season, while each made at least 30 starts with a WHIP under 1.52 (league average is 1.74). Despite incredibly consistent numbers from Burba the last three seasons (at least 15 wins and 190 innings each campaign), he'll be 35 in July and, along with the 38-year-old Finley, makes for a very old middle of the rotation.

With that being said, the Tribe is also on the other end of the spectrum with the 20-year-old Sabathia, a prospect the Indians covet so highly they didn't allow him to pitch in the Olympics last summer. While Sabathia, who has never pitched above Double-A, has been extremely impressive in spring training, it remains to be seen how he handles playing in front of a sold-out crowd at Jacobs Field every night instead of a few hundred in the Grapefruit League. If Sabathia falters early, Steve Woodard, who pitched well for the Tribe down the stretch last season after being acquired from Milwaukee near the trading deadline, will step into the rotation leaving a big hole in the bullpen if Justin Speier can't get past his spring woes to make the team.

However, if Sabathia and Karsay, who hasn't been a regular starter since 1997 when he went 3-12 with a 5.77 ERA for Oakland, can handle filling in for Nagy and Wright the Tribe should have no problem avoiding the rough start that made their pursuit of Chicago so difficult last year.

The last problem the Tribe faces is how to replace longtime Indian and fan favorite Sandy Alomar, Jr., who parted ways under less than amicable terms after 11 years in Cleveland. The likely starter will be Alomar's 2000 backup, Einar Diaz, with former Tribe farmhand and recently re-acquired Eddie Taubensee waiting in the wings. The 28-year-old Diaz, the better defensive catcher of Cleveland's two backstops, will produce similar offensive numbers as Alomar and might be the only starter in Cleveland's lineup outside of shortstop Omar Vizquel who doesn't hit 20 home runs. Manager Charlie Manuel would most likely prefer to start Diaz so he can keep Taubensee on a potentially lethal bench that includes OF Wil Cordero, IF/OF Russell Branyan (who will begin the season as the starting third baseman to fill in for the injured Travis Fryman), UT Jolbert Cabrera (who can spell Vizquel at shortstop as well as play all three outfield positions well) and OF Jacob Cruz.

With a high profile offseason that saw them part ways with Manny Ramirez and Sandy Alomar, Jr., the Indians could be in for a rough start to the 2001 campaign. However, for a team that figures to score as many runs as the Tribe does, the key question on the broken record that is the Cleveland Indians is once again how many runs they will allow.