Spring Training preview - NL Central (Pt. 5)

By Peter Friberg Sports Central Columnist

With Spring Training now in session and the Boys of Summer awaking from their winter hibernation, it's time to start thinking baseball.

This time around, we will take a look at the NL Central Division.

Chicago looks to be right back in the thick of things. They have hitting, they have pitching, and they have depth. Unfortunately for the Cubbies, so do two other teams in the division.

Last year, Sammy Sosa (.328/.437/.737 -- batting average/on-base percentage/slugging) had about the best single year any hitter has had in long time, except that Barry Bonds had an even better year. While it's unreasonable to expect him to duplicate 64 HR, 160 RBI, and 146 runs, the Cubs have made some moves so that he may not have to. His three-year average for HR, RBI, and runs is 59/146/122. Sosa should produce somewhere near those numbers in 2002.

Adding Moises Alou (.331/.396/.554) gives the Cubs a 3-4-5 that can rake with the best of them. Fred McGriff (.306/.386/.544) splits the two right-handers batting fourth.

As good as their hitting looks, their pitching could be even better. Kerry Wood (3.36 ERA in 174.1 innings) heads this staff. Jon Leiber and Juan Cruz will follow in the rotation; each had sub-4.00 ERAs (3.80 in 232.1 and 3.22 in 44.2, respectively) in 2001.

The best pitcher in the Cubs organization, Mar Prior, may join the rotation at some point in the season (he may even start the year on the staff). However, he is yet to throw a professional pitch (not counting spring training action).

Mark Prior, first round pick -- and fifth overall -- in last year's June draft, throws hard, but has uncanny control for a power pitcher. Some have called him the best they've ever seen, other say that he is merely the best since Rodger Clemons. Either way, Prior is quite the talent. In two years, Kerry Wood will be the number two starter for the Cubs. Look out!

Despite the staff talent, the one big thing I see as a potential problem for the Cubs is that pitching staff. Near the end of the year, Cubs manager Don Baylor got into it with pitching coach Rudy Jamarillo. Almost all of the Cubs pitchers credited Jamarillo with the staff's strong season. Now that Rudy's in Texas, how will the staff do without him? Baylor doesn't have the best record when it comes to preserving pitcher's arms. This will be something to watch.

Because I have to predict something, I'll place the Cubs third. However, very little would have to happen for this team to finish first or second. This division is easily the toughest in the National League.

Cincinnati, much like the Texas Rangers last year, hopes to pound their opponent and hang on for the ride. The Reds are a team chalk full of hitters with more to spare in the minors. Alas, the Reds lacks guys who can get the other teams' hitters out.

Last year, I predicted that Ken Griffey, Jr. (.286/.365/.533) would win the NL MVP. Of course, one bad hamstring and 51 missed games later ruined that prediction. His numbers were solid and after two years of sub-par performance, Griffey should once again show why he was considered the best player in the game for several years.

Another thing going for Junior is his outfield mate, Adam Dunn (.262/.371/.548). Dunn had one of the more memorable seasons in baseball history. He set a rookie record for homeruns in a month with 12, while hitting 51 for the year between A, AA, AAA, and the Major League club. He will provide Griffey the protection any star needs in a lineup and could challenge Junior for the team lead in HR.

Sean Casey (.310/.369/.458), affectionately known as, "The Mayor," had his worst season last year. And while he has less power than you would typically like from your first-baseman, he does hit a lot of doubles (40) and has a high batting average and OBP. The Reds just rewarded him with a multi-year deal, but if he doesn't regain his power, they may come to regret that move.

The Reds obviously aren't lacking in hitters, but they are almost completely lacking in pitchers. Joey Hamilton (5.93 ERA in 139.2 innings) will be the opening day starter. While that might be a compliment to Joey and his work this spring, it certainly doesn't bode well for the Reds and their fans.

Danny Graves (4.15 in 80.1) is the team's closer and best pitcher -- until Scott Williamson returns. When Scott does return, Graves will likely make the move to the starting rotation.

Well, the Reds should be able to hold of the Pirates and may overtake the Brewers, anything above fourth place is probably too much to expect.

Houston has baseball pundits writing them off after Moises Alou's (.331/.396/.554) departure to the Windy City. However, with the hard-hitting Darryl Ward (.263/.323/.460) taking over Alou's spot in the lineup, the Astros may not miss a beat. Keep in mind, in the last nine years, Alou has only played a full season three times. What will hurt the 'Stros, is Darryl's defense, and that moving Ward to a starting position weakens the bench.

The Astros will won't be too concerned with offensive production as they still have two of the more feared hitters in baseball; OF Lance Berkman (.331/.430/.620) and 1B Jeff Bagwell (.288/.397/.568).

Rookie Morgan Ensberg takes over at the hot corner. Ensberg hit 23 jacks and batted .310 in AAA last season. While Ensberg isn't reported to be a star-in-waiting, he is a solid addition to an already solid lineup and will provide adequate defense at third.

Now that we discussed the hitters, the big news in Houston is the pitching. 2001 rookie, Roy Oswalt dominated (2.73 in 141.2). And some experts are already penciling him into the 2002 NL Cy Young race; deservedly so.

This year, Houston will sic rookie lefty Carlos Hernandez on the NL. Hernandez pitched in just three games, but provided a telling demonstration of his abilities (1.02 in 17.2). Carlos has received several complementary comparisons to Pedro Martinez.

Wade Miller (3.40 in 212.0) and Shane Reynolds (4.34 in 182.2) provide the experience to one of the best staffs in the National League.

If this team can stay healthy, there is absolutely no reason to think they won't be thick of the NL Central title hunt. And they're my pick to win the division.

Milwaukee is still owned by the commissioner. They may be in a trust run by his daughter, but Selig still owns the Brewers. For that reason alone, I have a hard time being positive about this team. I know, I know, my mother did teach me that if I couldn't say something nice, not to say anything at all. Sorry, Mom, duty calls ...

Last year, Milwaukee's second baseman, Ron Belliard (.264/.335/.453) wasn't considered good enough. So the Brewers went out and got Eric Young (.279/.333/.393) who is both eight years older and more expensive. But then Eric Young is a "proven veteran." This philosophy will prevent the Brewers from reaching the playoffs; not just this year, but for as long as the philosophy remains.

They do have one of the best young hitters in the game. And like many others, Richie Sexton (.271/.342/.547) came up through the Cleveland Indians' organization. Richie hit 45 HR last year, but struck out 178 times. Many stat-heads will tell you his strikeouts weren't that big of a problem. However, when coupled with his 28 walks, they do represent a large concern. If Sexton is ever able to develop plate discipline (to the tune of 60+ walks, and less than 150 strikeouts), he'll be one of the best hitters in the game.

Unfortunately for the Brewers and their fans, Richie's .889 OPS is over 70 points higher than any other Milwaukee hitter. Without a single hitter above the .900 OPS plateau, it's hard to see how this team will score enough runs to be competitive.

The biggest thing this team has going for it is its new pitching coach, Dave Stewart. When Stew was in San Diego, he took a bunch of guys with mediocre career numbers and taught them how to approach pitching and to go after people.

Last year, the Brewers allowed more walks than any other NL staff and struck out the second fewest. If Dave Stewart has to come out of retirement and pitch himself, he will not allow that to happen again.

Fortunately for Dave, he does have some talent to work with. Ben Sheets (4.76 in 151.1), Jamey Wright (4.90 in 194.2), Ruben Quevedo (4.61 in 56.2), and Nick Neugebauer (7.50 in 6.0) all have the talent to pitch effectively. All four have shown the tendency to walk people, but Stew will pound that tendency out of them. These guys may not finish the season with winning records, but don't be surprised if their ERAs and walk rates aren't significantly lower, while their K rates are higher than last season.

While Stew's staff will help this team stay in many games, pitching in NL Central is a landmine with the small parks and large hitters. This team will probably finish fourth, due to an anemic offense.

Pittsburgh was second to last in runs scored, and second to last in runs allowed, and Pirates' manager Lloyd McClendon was tied for 16th on the team for steals with one. No, really. After arguing a play late in the season and consequently getting tossed, Lloyd dug up first base and took it off the field for his lone stolen base.

"If your not contending, you're rebuilding," I used this quote before, but I don't know who to attribute it to (it's just one I've heard or read and enjoy). The Pirates, however, do not seem to understand this; at least not completely. The Bucs have a few (but only a few) tradable commodities; OF Brian Giles (.309/.404./.590), C Jason Kendall (.266/.335/.358), and 3B Aramis Ramirez (.300/.350/.535). After those hitters, the cupboard is strikingly bare.

The pitching side of the equation is regrettably similar. RHP Kris Benson would make any staff better (when he's healthy -- he's expected to return in late April or May), but after him, it's a bunch of guys who may (or may not) pan out but won't ever be #1 or #2 starters; rookie Josh Fogg, Kip Wells (4.79 in 133.1), and Joe Beimel (5.23 in 115.1).

Furthermore, the organization doesn't leave intelligent fans expecting a reversal of fortunes. In last June's draft, the Pirates selected the NCAA HR champ. They quickly converted him to a pitcher. He was his college team's closer, but someone with his power is more valuable as hitter than a pitcher. Even the player was confused by the Pirates decision.

The Pirates also own this year's number one pick. Hopefully, they are able to make a more wise, low-risk selection this year.

Last place is almost a certainty again this year. And while their new park is a jewel, if they can't start winning, it won't matter how pretty the ballpark is, the fans will stay away in droves.

St. Louis has the talent to win the NL pennant. There's no question about that. However, while several prognosticators think this team is the NL answer to the New York Yankees, I have my doubts. This is a very good team. I just don't know if they're as good as some think they are.

Keep in mind, that while they did acquire Tino Martinez (.280/.329/.501) to play first, and while Mark McGwire (.187/.316/.492) did struggle, his numbers in 299 AB were similar to Tino's for the whole season (589 AB); 34 to 29 HR and 113 to 64 RBI. Tino's biggest benefit to the team, is allowing NL Rookie of the Year, Albert Pujols (.329/.403/.610) to play third.

The Cards also have two very good hitting outfielders; J.D. Drew (.323/.414/.613) and Jim Edmunds (.304/.410/.564). Left field, however, is a bit of a hole. With the lineups Chicago and Houston bring out, having the hole the Cards do in LF (as well as at SS) could haunt them.

Likewise, 2B Fernando Vina (.304/.357/.418) isn't the leadoff hitter a championship caliber team needs. 32 walks is not sufficient from a leadoff hitter. His "ability" to get hit (by pitches), however, does increase his on-base percentage to a respectable level; he's averaged 25 HBP over his last three full seasons. If he can continue to reach base at a .350+ clip, he will be valuable, but taking a few more walks would greatly increase that value as a leadoff hitter.

In his first full season back into the rotation after "Tommy John" surgery, Matt Morris (3.16 in 3.16) picked up right where he left off. In 115 career games and 600.0 career innings, Morris has a career ERA of 3.09. While he doesn't get the strikeouts that his Cy Young competitors in Arizona do, his career ERA is much lower than Schilling's and Johnson's at comparable points in their careers.

Morris is backed by a solid rotation, which if Rick Ankiel (7.12 in 24.0) can consistently find the plate, is even stronger. Darryl Kile (3.09 in 227.1), Woody Williams (4.05 in 220.0), Bud Smith (3.83 in 84.2), and Garret Stephenson, who missed all of 2001, round out the rotation.

Due to offensive holes at short and left, and a pitching staff that probably ranks behind Houston's, second seems like the proper finishing location for the Cardinals. Unfortunately for NL Central fans, as good as the Cards, 'Stros, and Cubs are, they will probably beat up on each other and prevent the Wild Card from coming out of the Central.

If I didn't predict that your team would finish first, take heart, some of the best baseball in the world will be played at NL Central ballparks this summer. Send me a postcard!

Article courtesy of Sports Central.