Fantasy Sports: 2004 Fantasy Points League -- The Hot Corner

Just a few years ago, the third baseman position appeared as though it was in a decline with the move of perennial MVP candidates Chipper Jones and Albert Pujols to the outfield, the retirement of Hall of Fame inductees Wade Boggs, Cal Ripken, and Paul Molitor, and the inept play of former 3B standouts Vinny Castilla, Aramis Ramirez and Jeff Cirillo.

Now as opening day approaches, the talent at the hot corner is as deep as it has ever been. With the addition of Alex Rodriguez and stars like Eric Chavez, Scott Rolen, Troy Glaus and Aramis Ramirez, the highly-touted third baseman position will be the talk of 2004. Not to mention, that talented youngsters such as Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Hank Blalock, Joe Crede and Sean Burroughs are also primed for fantastic seasons and will even make a strong position stronger for several years to come.

Third base, once left for dead, is now the position of choice for Fantasy Owners and will only get better. Let us take a look.

2004 Third Base Projections 145G / 530AB / 75R / 30 Doubles / 3 Triples / 21 Home runs / 80 RBI / 6 SB / 50 Walks / .277 AVG

League using a Fantasy Points system of: "1 Point" for every Run, Single, RBI, and Walk; "2 Points" for every Double and Stolen Base; "3 Points" for each Triple; and "4 Points" for each Home run; Total Points Projected for an average 3B in 2004 = 463 (3.19 PPG)

2004 3B Rankings

1. Alex Rodriguez, NYY (763 Total, 4.77 PPG) - A-Rod is hands down the most dynamic baseball player in the game and the best Fantasy player available. If your not drafting him first overall, you're seriously mistaken. In the last three seasons as a Ranger, Rodriguez averaged 162 games, a .305 BA, 52 HR, 132 RBI, 127 Runs, 15 SB, and earned the AL MVP award in 2003. Now that the trade rumors are behind him, look for a typical A-Rod season as the new Yankees third baseman. Expect another MVP-type season of .309-49-133-14 and 135+ runs. Are you sure you want Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Beltran or Todd Helton? Go ahead, I'll stick with "THE" best!

2. Scott Rolen, STL (616, 4.11) - The gritty, tough Cardinals third baseman may not be in A-Rod's class but Rolen is worthy of at least a third round pick and now that he's finally comfortable in St. Louis expect a banner 2004 campaign. It appears that Rolen is finally over his injury woes and he is a sure bet to play in at least 150 games, hit close to .300 while belting 30+ home runs and driving in more than 110 runs in '04.

3. Eric Chavez, OAK (586, 3.78) - Chavez is one of the best 3B options in Fantasy Baseball, despite his pathetic post-season slumber. His hot second half (.313-12-51) last season and multiyear contract extension should alleviate any concerns owners may have regarding his playoffs performance. It's hard to believe that Chavez is only 26 playing in his sixth full season in the Big Leagues, but it is not hard to believe a better year is coming to the tune of .288-34-106-8 in 2004.

4. Aubrey Huff, TAM (570, 3.56) - Huff is one of the lone bright stars in Tampa and judging by the pathetic attendance very few even understand the talent they have in this budding stud. In the Fantasy Baseball world, he is quickly becoming a household name and should be recognized early on in most drafts. Huff played in every game last season, playing various positions including in the OF, 3B, and 1B. He also batted over .300 for the second consecutive year while setting new career highs in HRs (34), RBIs (107), and Runs (91). It's hard to imagine a better season, but at 27, expect at least .299-28-104.

5. Troy Glaus, ANA (548, 3.65) - Fantasy Bust in 2003, enters this season as a top Fantasy Sleeper at a bargain bin price. Following a breakout 2002 World Series, Glaus played in just 91 games last year before a rotator cuff injury prematurely ended his season in July. The former collegiate shortstop is superb athlete who will never hit for a very high average but is a raw power hitter with tremendous HR and RBI abilities. Expect Glaus to be completely healthy and deliver a bounce back .250-29-101-9, 86 BB campaign in '04.

6. Aramis Ramirez, CHC (540, 3.48) - Will the real Aramis Ramirez please stand up? In 2001, Ramirez stormed onto the Fantasy Baseball scene with a .300-34-112 breakout season, and followed up with an obscene .234-18-71 season in 2002. And, again, in 2003 he bounced back with a solid comeback '03 season of .272-27-106, while igniting the Cubs down the stretch with 15 HR and 39 RBI (in 63 games) following a July trade. Unlike 2002, Ramirez is completely healthy and hitting behind Sammy Sosa and Derek Lee should help him to improve upon his '03 numbers delivering a .281-30-107 season in 2004.

7. Hank Blalock, TEX (527, 3.40)- After being a rookie, sleeper, and bust all in a matter of a few months in '02, Blalock ended up being one of the best bargains and third baseman of 2003 as he delivered a breakout .300-29-90 season. Now that Palmeiro and Juan Gone have departed, Mark Teixeira, Soriano, and he are now the cornerstones of the Rangers' franchise. With a full season under is hat, look for the '03 AL All-Star to improve again posting a .281-30-83 season in 2004 as the Rangers #2 batter.

8. Corey Koskie, MIN (520, 3.47) - Steady Koskie, may not be spectacular but he will give you a good amount of everything. He probably will never reach his 2001 heights of 26 home runs, 103 RBI, 100 runs, and 27 steals again, but he will get the job done delivering a steady .283-17-80-15 season in 2004.

9. Eric Hinske, TOR (519, 3.46)- The 2002 AL Rookie of the Year stumbled through a disastrous sophomore season in '03 due in part to a broken hand that limited him to just 124 games. Since last year, Hinske has lost more than 15 pounds and his hand is completely healed which is bad news for AL hurlers. Expect Hinske to build off a solid September (.279-2-12) and look for him to come close in duplicating his ROY campaign, producing a .272-21-80-14 and 40+ doubles season in 2004.

10. Edgardo Alfonzo, SF (482, 3.32)- "Fonzie" is an even number guy and Fantasy gurus should take note. Since 2000, Alfonzo has hit .324 (2000), .243 (2001), .308 (2002), and .259 (2003) in his first season with the San Francisco Giants. In 2004, look for more of the same, in even years that is, and consider last year's second half (.296-8-48) as a trend for this year. He may also move up in the lineup, batting behind Barry Bonds which means plenty of RBI chances and a .289-15-84-5 sleeper season.

11. Morgan Ensberg, HOU (477, 3.28)- What's not to like about him? Excellent hitter (.291), power (25 HR in just 385 AB), patience (just 60 strikeouts to 48 walks), age (28), and even has some speed (7 SB). So, what's not to like, Jimy Williams? Ensberg did all this work in just 127 games while sharing time with future Hall of Fame third baseman Geoff Blum in 2004. Right, Blum (.262-10-52 in 420 AB in '03) is now in Tampa Bay and will be fortunate to even make a single start this season with Jared Sandberg standing in the way. Jimy, keep your hands off this talent, expecting Ensberg to deliver a .283-25-71-8 with 87 runs season in 2004 as the Astros #2 batter.

12. Miguel Cabrera, FLA (473, 3.26) - Just 20 years old, Cabrera is a very special five-tool player establishing himself last season as one of the brightest young stars in the game. He burst into the baseball spotlight the middle of last season and spearheaded the Marlins' W.S. Championship run with a strong second half (.282-8-48) and brilliant postseason. Expect the future third base star to play right field this season and enjoy a .279-22-80-3 season. Buyer beware: Remember Andrew Jones a few years ago when he burst onto the scene in the World Series? The following season disappointed many of an Fantasy owner.

13. Mike Lowell, FLA (472, 3.25) - Lowell was arguably the best 3B in the game the first half of last season (.275-28-76), but a broken wrist in August limited him to 139 second-half ABs. Despite missing 32 games, he still set career highs home runs (32) and RBI (105) and should be completely healed from the hand injury that severely limited his power during the Marlins postseason run. If healthy, Lowell can duplicate his '03 season, but with his recent elbow injury this Spring you should expect no more than a .274-18-94 2004 campaign.

14. Joe Crede, CWS (470, 3.13) - Aggressive hitter that makes decent contact and does not walk often. Crede slumped mightily the first half of last season (.225) and many Fantasy owners , who drafted him as a sleeper, abandoned ship for the Jose Hernandez's and Craig Counsell's of the world. Those that chose to stick with the drowning, young third baseman benefited with his top tier .308-11-37 second half resurgence. It's hard to be a sleeper in two consecutive years, but at 25 and with the strong finish, Crede's future is now to the tune of a .281-25-82 season in 2004. For the second consecutive year, he is a sleeper at 3B.

15. Dmitri Young, DET (468, 3.22) - Young, who is a pure hitter from both sides of the plate, was the lone bright spot for the Motown Kitty Cats last season setting a career-high in home runs (29). If your looking for a consistent performer at third base, Young's your man with a .289-19-86 with 36 doubles season in 2004. Many owners will forget that Dmitri played in 16 games at 3B thus he will be a bargain here on Draft Day.

16. D'Angelo Jimenez, CIN (483, 3.22) - After struggling with the White Sox, Jimenez was traded to the Reds last July and put up tremendous numbers (.290-7-31 and seven steals in just 73 games). At 26, Jimenez will be the everyday third baseman, that qualifies at second base, and bat leadoff for a team that should be improved offensively with a healthy Griffey, Dunn, Kearns, and Casey hitting behind him. If that is not enough to qualify him as a legitimate sleeper for '04, keep in mind that he led the Dominican Winter Baseball League in average this off season. A .280-12-64 season with 80+ runs and 15-20 steals are realistic expectations for 2004.

Others:

17. Mark Teixeira, TEX (459, 3.17) - Teixeira will be a great player for many years to come, but his lack of plate discipline (120 Ks to 44 B, .331 OBP), lack of lineup protection, and second time around the Junior Circuit will lead to growing pains for owners who pull the trigger to early on him. Without a doubt a keeper, however this season will not warrant anything more than a backup role for mixed and AL-only leagues. Expect an average in the mid .250's with 20-25 home runs and 80-85 RBIs. 18. Vinny Castilla, COL (448, 3.20) - Now that Castilla is back in Coors, anything is possible. He will be a nice 3B backup option for any roster but don't look at Castilla's previous years in Colorado because he is not the same threat. Expect a solid season, however, of .277-26-86 in the light air of Denver.

19. Shea Hillenbrand, ARZ (465, 3.20) - Everyday third baseman that thrived in the Desert (17 HR and 59 RBI in just 85 games) following the trade from Boston last season. Hillenbrand does not walk much, indicated by his sub-par .314 OBP, but the increase in power (20 HR and 97 RBI) is promising. Thus, expect a '04 season of .285-22-90 "if" he plays in more than 145 games. On the other hand, his rating drops a couple of spots because of the injury-plagued past (including the dreaded rib cage ailment suffered late last season).

20. Melvin Mora, BAL (447, 3.08) - Despite playing in just 96 games, Mora still managed hit 15 HR with 48 RBI, 68 runs, and led the AL in hitting for much of the first half until knee and hand injuries caused him to miss considerable action last season. The versatile Mora started in the outfield, at shortstop, at second base, and at first base last season. In 2004, he is slated to take over third base for the departed Tony Batista and should hit a respectable .274 with 17 HR and 59 RBI as the O's leadoff hitter.

21. Alex Cintron, ARZ (441, 3.03) - Those owners fortunate enough in claiming Cintron off the waiver wire following his May 7 call-up last season, happily rode his .317-13-51 Fantasy line the remainder of the season. With the signing of Alomar and Sexson, Cintron will produce as the everyday D-backs shortstop while batting in the middle of a good lineup. He will not come cheap and expect another solid .286-15-72 season in the desert.

22. Bill Mueller, BOS (422, 3.12) - Boston Red Sox's third baseman who also qualifies at second base. In 2003, Mueller shocked the baseball world by winning the AL Batting crown (.326) while achieving career-bests in HR (19) and RBI (85). If he can stay healthy (which history suggests he will not) and if continues his power surge there is no reason why Mueller could not be a top 5 selection at the second and third base positions this season. On the other hand, look for a solid .290-.300 season with a significant drop-off in HR and RBI. Just to many if (s).

23. Casey Blake, CLE (451, 3.00) - The 30-year old rookie had a very productive first season with the Tribe and despite a second-half slumber expect Blake to increase his fantasy numbers across the board in '04 to the tune of .264-18-77-9.

24. Sean Burroughs, SD (444, 2.96) - Top young 3B prospect for the Padres, quietly had a nice 2003 season. Reminds many of a young Wade Boggs, who should eventually evolve into a power threat. Expect a marked improvement of .301-12-51-11 in 2004 as the Padres leadoff batter.

25. Adrian Beltre, LA (446, 2.87) - It can be easy to forget that this "veteran" is just 24 and while a change of scenery away from Chavez Revine would boost his Fantasy numbers, owners should expect Beltre to produce at least a .265-22-72 season.

Best of the Rest:

26. Tony Batista, MON (437, 2.81) - Awkward batting style, an even more awkward Fantasy numbers. Batista is the "Charles Johnson" of third baseman who basically is at best a .250 hitter with 30 home run credentials. In 2004, he will be moving from hitter-friendly Camden Yards to the cavernous Olympic Stadium in Montreal where Batista will find reaching the seats much more difficult. Thus, the one-category player will be reduced to no more than a 20-25 home runs with 80-85 RBI and a pathetic .242 average 3B in 2004.

27. Placido Polanco, PHI (429, 2.95) - Solid, consistent hitter that is likely to be moved down the lineup and will platoon at both second and third base. He should find enough at bats this season, however to hit in the .290's with 10-15 home runs and 65-70 RBI.

28. Joe Randa, KC (415, 2.86) - A poor man's Corey Koskie who will give you consistent not spectacular numbers as a durable back-up. Look for a standard .286-13-70 season from the 34-year old Randa.

29. Scott Spiezio, SEA (422, 2.72) - Everyday Mariners third baseman who will drive in some big runs but holds very little Fantasy value at the first base position and some as a back-up 3B. A Fantasy owner should go to Best Buy and find his CD rather than settle for .268-13-70-5 numbers in 2004.

30. Eric Munson, DET - Sure he hit just .240 in 99 games last season and batted a "Mendoza-like" .209 on the road. The good news, is Munson began to look comfortable at the plate in the second half (.254-6-14), before suffering a season-ending thumb injury in August. In 2004, expect more from him in a veteran lineup and a .253-24-73 season which makes him a super sleeper in deep mixed and AL-only leagues.

31. Wes Helms, MIL - Projected to bat in the middle of the Brew Crew lineup (which isn't saying much) in 2004, but a season of .254-17-60 is not worthy of a draft pick unless your in deep-deep NL-only Leagues.

32. David Bell, PHI - Never mind. I would rather takes my chances with a young Pedro Feliz, a Keith Ginter, or a Mark DeRosa, than stake my team on the shoulders of Buddy's son.

Sleepers: Worth Your Time & Dime

* Troy Glaus, ANA - Hitting behind Garret Anderson and Vladamir Guerrero means a BIG season is in store for one of the best third baseman in the game.

* Eric Hinske, TOR - From Sophomore Slump to Jumpin' Junior in 2004.

Edgardo Alfonzo, SF - Heads, no it's tails. In 2004, even-year season means it's "Heads" and a possible .300 and 80+ RBI season for Fonzie.

* Morgan Ensberg, HOU - Dear Mr. Jimy Williams, let the youngster play and he will not you down, signed "Astute Fantasy Owner". P.S. How does an average in the .280's with 25-30 home runs sound?

* Joe Crede, CWS - His ridiculous first half and tremendous second half will keep his value down on draft day. Expect 25-30 home runs with 85-100 RBI this season. Not bad for a middle to late round pick.

* Sean Burroughs, SD - Sure isn't his daddy, he's better. In 2004, the new Padres leadoff batter will be among the League's best hitters. Let me introduce you to the new Wade Boggs.

* Eric Munson, DET - The 26-year old belted 18 home runs in just 99 games for the lowly Tigers and improved his average splits by more than 18 percentage points until a thumb injury curtailed the remainder of his season. Munson will be a great last pick, if your looking for a promising backup 3B to fill out your roster.

* Garrett Atkins, COL - Remember the name, he will be a star for many years to come and will back-up the aging Vinny Castilla in 2004. If Castilla fails or is injured, jump all of this "Atkins" diet.

Busts: Let me to you about the Dangers

* Miguel Cabrera, FLA - He walked on water in the NLCS and World Series last season. While he is a definite keeper, Cabrera is certainly not a sleeper in 2004. Look for good numbers, but not at the price he will go for on draft day.

* Mike Lowell, FLA - Would be a top 5 pick if completely healthy, but with an injury to his elbow this Spring this is enough to keep the Fantasy guru away.

* Mark Teixeira, TEX - He has a way to go before he is a legit starter at any position but a keeper for years to come.

* Bill Mueller, BOS - The 2003 AL-batting champion should hit close to .300 again but expect a major dip in his power numbers and injury-plagued season for the fragile Mueller.

* Tony Batista, MON - The fences in Montreal may look shorter with metric listings, but Batista will find out just how easy Camden, Skydome, and the BOB were in reaching the seats in comparison to Olympic Stadium.

* Jeff Ciriilo, SD - Do you have to be rated in order to be labeled a bust? Certainly not, Cirillo once was considered one of the best right-handed hitters in the game and is now the biggest bust in recent memory.

Mr. Consistency: Safe Bets for 2004

Alex Rodriguez, NYY Scott Rolen, STL Eric Chavez, OAK Corey Koskie, MIN Dmitri Young, DET Shea Hillenbrand, ARZ Placidio Polanco, PHI Joe Randa, KC Scott Spiezio, SEA